Young Voter Turnout - An Election Day Primer

Today, we all head to the polls to choose our representatives and hopefully change the direction of our country. One voting block that is sure to play an important - and expanding - role in today's election is young voters.

In 2004, the media completely botched the story about young voter turnout. An article in the AP mistakenly reported young voters share of the electorate instead of the hard turnout numbers. In 2004, youth turnout as a share of the electorate only rose 1-2% points due to an overall turnout increase of 4% among the voting population. Young Voter strategies has more on the difference between share and turnout here. (pdf)

The result of this error was a complete dismissal of youth turnout for months, and a reinforcement in the minds of many politicians and the media that youth remained apathetic. We know that's not true.

The real story, we now know, was that youth turnout increased by 11% over 2000 turnout levels, and that young voters chose Kerry over Bush by a 10 point margin. This was the largest increase since 18 year olds were granted the vote in 1972.(pdf)

To make sure that this little piece of electoral history doesn't repeat itself, I'd like to establish some baseline info about youth turnout - what to look for, and what we can expect today:

Turnout

The baseline for youth turnout today is not 2004, but rather 2002 - the last midterm election.

In 2002, 22% of young voters went to the polls. That translated to approximately 8.9 million votes cast.

A poll by the Harvard Institute of Politics estimated that turnout this year could be as high as 32%. This would break the previous record of 26.6% set in 1982.

Partisanship and Potential Impact

56% of young voters (pdf) say they prefer Democrats over Republicans. Only 29% say the same for Republicans. In 2002, those numbers were 49% and 40% respectively.

60% of young voters say the country is heading in the wrong direction. (pdf) In 2002, that number was at 42%.

Based on the amount of youth outreach being conducted, the partisanship of the young electorate, and the potential for increased turnout, Young Voter Strategies is predicting that youth could tip the election in the following races:

Maryland:
U.S. Senate: Ben Cardin (D) 51% - Michael Steele (R) 44%
Governor: Martin O’Malley (D) 50% - Robert Erlich 46%.

Minnesota:
Governor: Mike Hatch (D) 45% - Tim Pawlenty (R) 41%

Ohio:
U.S. Senate: Sherrod Brown (D) 52% - Mike DeWine (R) 41%

Michigan:
Governor: Jennifer Granholm (D) 50% - Dick DeVos (R) 42%

The House:
NM-01: Heather Wilson (R) 43% - Patricia Madrid (D) 50%
District includes the University of New Mexico, total enrollment 23,670.

IA-02: Jim Leach (R) 49% - David Loebsack (D) 48%
District includes University of Iowa, total enrollment 28,311

IA-03: Leonard Boswell (D) 53% - Jeff Lamberti (R) 39%
District includes Iowa State University, total enrollment 26,845.

CT-02: Rob Simmons (R) 46% - Courtney 46%
District includes the University of Connecticut-Storrs, total enrollment: 19,393 and Eastern Connecticut
State University, total enrollment: 5,145.

WI-08: Steve Kagen (D) 47% - John Gard (R) 44%
District includes the University of Wisconsin-Green Bay, total enrollment: 5,657 and Lawrence University,
total enrollment: 1,228.

OH-15: Mary Jo Kilroy (D) 53% - Deborah Pryce (R) 41%
District includes The Ohio State University, total enrollment: 47,952.

For a robust (but not comprehensive look) at the youth outreach activities in these areas, check out this impact memo from YVS. (pdf)

Conclusion and Upcoming Data

So that is where we stand. Young Voter Strategies is planning to release some preliminary data on youth turnout later tonight. The final tallies will be ready tomorrow after 1pm. I'll post updates as I get them for the next 36 hours. I also expect to have a graphic illustrating the impact of youth turnout produced in cooperation with Music for America. You might remember the electoral map of youth turnout we worked up after the 2004 election. Hopefully we'll be able to create something as eye-popping this time around.

Updates to come. Get out and vote, and make sure that the media does its job and accurately reports on young voter turnout this year. These voters look to be building a progressive wave that we can ride for years to come. Let's make sure we've got their backs.