New School Evangelicals
There was a great story on NPR yesterday that captured my attention. Pew recently released their extensive 35,000 person survey that examines the role of faith in daily lives and in political affiliation.
Here is a video that talks about it in an overview. I would embed it but there were issues.
It does a number of things that I consider notable. First, it does a great age demographic breakdown in Chapter 3 (pdf). 68% of 18-29 year olds consider themselves to be Christians. 43% of 18-29 year olds consider themselves to be Protestant but only 22% of those consider themselves Evangelical Protestants.
What is shocking is that more people are comfortable not only church hopping but are considering themselves to be unaffiliated with any religion at all. That number is on the rise according to the survey.
"A good percentage of folks in that group tell us that religion is at least somewhat important in their lives, but they have become disassociated from institutionalized religion," he says.
Among Americans ages 18 to 29, one-in-four said he or she is not affiliated with any religion."
When I think of the image of a Protestant Evangelical I see a young family maybe late 20's early 30's. Its actually old people 60-69 year olds consider themselves Protestant Evangelicals 29% and 70+ 30%.
Secondly, it deals with some of the smaller religions. When we talk about things like Evangelicals its a pretty broad group. Are we talking about Baptist Evangelicals, or Free Evangelicals, or non-affiliated Evangelicals? Most, (41%) of Protestant Evangelical churches are Baptist with 26% being Southern Baptist. And 64% of historically African American churches that are Protestant Evangelical are considered Baptist as well but they are more National Baptist.
This data is interesting when looking at retention rates from childhood. 60% of those who were raised in largely Evangelical families continued to identify as Evangelicals. But what is super interesting, is that a majority those who were less likely to stick around with traditional churches they grew up in were more likely to get involved in another "New Protestant" church. New Protestant Evangelicals are like the Rick Warrens and Joel Osteens of the world.
What they've seen too is that faith is no longer an indicator in voting preference. Where we saw a huge turnout for Republicans among Evangelicals in 2004 that is not necessarily the case anymore, according to reporter Alex Cohen.
"The new school of younger Evangelicals is big and getting bigger and they're not necessarily going to back McCain..."
According to Professor Clyde Wilcox from Georgetown University "Mega church leaders, you know, tend to be a little conservative, but in the middle. And they're not so afraid because they think their churches are doing just fine, so they are willing to enter into dialogue with all kinds of people..."
People, including Barack Obama...."
The piece goes on to tell the story about Obama's visit to Rick Warren's church in southern California in 2006 where he and Sam Brownback had an interesting exchange. Brownback welcomed Obama to "his house" and Obama later declared "This is my house too. This is God's house..."
As has been mentioned before both by Mike and by Zach Exley from Revolution in Jesusland, this is certainly Not Your Father's Religious Right. The "new school" is eager to deal with humanitarian causes, stopping genocide, creation care (i.e. global warming), and a slew of other issues where Republicans have faltered considerably.
The more Democrats become comfortable talking about their faith in a non-trite more genuine way and developing relationships with pastors in their districts or their states the less powerful I think the major old white guys will become.
In the end the cool thing is that Millennials are not merely changing the face of politics, they are changing the evangelical movement as well or they are simply leaving churches altogether which can put more "mainstream" churches into financial instability in the next 5-10 years.
2008 Youth Vote in Context
The following charts and graphs are meant to contextualize the unique role that young voters played in the 2008 election, and their increasingly important role in a winning electoral coalition:
2008 Youth Electoral Map

2004 Youth Electoral Map

Youth Vote Partisan Advantage: 2000 - 2008

Youth Vote Historical Support: 1976 - 2008

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Nation piece on Young Evangelicals
Bob Moser has a new piece at the Nation that goes into this in quite some detail:
http://www.thenation.com/doc/20080324/moser