Republicans, DADT and the Youth Vote

As repeal of "Don't Ask, Don't Tell" gains momentum in both houses of Congress, Republicans appear to be planning to mount a vigorous defense of the policy. This in spite of a recent CNN poll stating that nearly 8 in 10 Americans favor repeal. (You couldn’t get 8 in 10 Americans to agree that the sun is indeed the center of the universe and the Earth is in fact round).

The arguments in favor of DADT have long been debunked . It serves no purpose except as a remaining vestige of discrimination. Furthermore, if South Africa and Israel allow military service irrespective of sexual orientation…why can’t or shouldn’t the US?

But all of the above isn't really the point of this post. Republicans should heed caution and tread very carefully during this debate. If they follow through with current opposition and vote en masse against repeal, they’ll further alienate young people. Unlike the political debates over healthcare or the stimulus, repeal of DADT strikes what is now a majority of Americans and an overwhelming number of youth as the right thing. Simpley because it's the right thing to do. The policy is seen as discriminatory and unjust. Supporting the status quo on this issue is standing on the wrong side of history, the consequences of such would be damning to the party’s future vitality.

For the next six months the political environment will favor Republicans. Tuesday’s primaries and special election in PA-12, have cast doubt as to the extent Republicans will be able to capitalize on voter frustration. The reality still remains however, that the majorities that Democrats now enjoy in the House and the Senate will be diminished. But over the course of the next 5, 10, 15 years as millennials become an even larger share of the electorate, Republicans current fortunes will change. By 2018 4.5 million more millennials will be able to cast ballots; by 2020 millennials will be nearly 40% of all eligible voters.

Numerous demographic profiles, surveys and studies have allowed the broader public to become familiar with the political and social attitudes of millennials. In fact the point of this blog Future Majority, is to tell the story of millennial politics from the perspective of millennials. I need not repeat what most of you are already very familiar with. You know that young people have progressive/liberal worldviews and favor Democrats by an almost 2-to-1 margin. Or that this is the most diverse generation in American history, where Hispanics are 19% of everyone aged 18-29. And that young people view discrimination as wrong whether it is in the military, the church or in the workplace.

Today's Republican Party is quixotically living in a different era, circa 1960 or 1980. The voices and ideas animating the right currently – Rand Paul, Sarah Palin, Rush Limbaugh, the Arizona Immigration law – are all disconnected from the values, concerns and aspirations of young people. For whatever its worth, George Bush was serious about immigration reform and courting Hispanic voters. Only a few years later, we were hard pressed to find a serious Republican in a leadership position that could strongly condemn the AZ immigration law that de facto legitimizes racial profiling. And now after voluminous evidence that DADT doesn’t work (we’ve discharged thousands of soldiers with critical skills and competencies) and isn’t fair nor necessary (soldiers are being asked about their sexual orientation), Republicans are still adamantly defending the policy.

It’s idiocy on moral and political grounds.

This is a historical problem for the party as well. Two generations ago, it was African Americans that left the Republican Party for good and haven't looked back. Now the party is dangerously flirting with ceding Hispanics, the LGBT community and broadly speaking youth to Democrats for the forseeable future.

Repealing DADT would represent social progress. It wouldn't signify parity or full equality, but it would mean that society is becoming a bit more just. Those who stand in the way, athwarting such progress will pay dearly at the ballot box in the not so distant future.