Indiana and North Carolina Primary Results - Youth Vote

Well my pre-game analysis was off. Banking on a smaller youth electorate and possible voter suppression at the polls, I predicted that Indiana would have a smaller youth turnout than North Carolina and that Clinton could potentially overtake Obama among some youth demographics (whites, 25 - 29). That turned out to be false.

Whichever way you slice it - share of the electorate or turnout - young voters played a bigger role in Indiana than they did in North Carolina yesterday. Young Hoosiers made up 17% of the total electorate, and, according to the Washington Post, outperformed voters over 65. CIRCLE lowballs the overall youth turnout at about 20%. (That number is a lowball because a lack of exit polling on the Republican side makes it impossible for them to accurately gauge youth turnout in the GOP contest. Without that data, their measurements for overall youth turnout can only come from the Dem side leaving tens to hundreds of thousands of young voters out of the equation).

In North Carolina, young Tarheels made up a smaller 14% of the overall electorate and turned out at a rate of 15% (again, a lowball estimate). In both states, Senator Obama continued to dominate the youthvote, pulling in a 49% margin in North Carolina and a 24% margin in Indiana.

With regard to share of the electorate, young voters in both states underperformed their share of the population (20% in Indiana and 21% in North Carolina), however the overall share likely rose considerably from 2000 and 2004. There are no exit polls from those cycles against which to compare data, but the average youth share of the electorate in 2004 was 9%. Going by that indicator, young voters' increased their share by ~5% in NC and 8% in Indiana. Not shabby.

According to reports, there was some voter suppression in Indiana, particularly among students attending private universities, however the numbers may be lower than anticipated. Groups like the Student PIRGs are still working on the issue and I'll post updates if/when I get them.

Most interesting to me was the racial breakdown of the youth vote in both states. In North Carolina, Sen. Clinton killed Sen. Obama among white voters overall, but she lot to Obama among White voters aged 17 - 29 57 - 41%. The results were similar in Indiana. Obama lost white voters overall, but won young white voters 55 - 45%. This was a reversal of the results in Pennsylvania, where Sen. Obama lost the white youth vote to Sen. Clinton 52 - 48%.

People say that Obama's "post racial" message is a fantasy when one looks at how the demographics break down, but that is a misinterpretation. Obama is not going to change the racial views and habits of older voters. No candidate could do that. Such change takes time. It is the work of generational shifts. That post-racial message is most apparent among younger voters, who display far less polarization on the issue and are far more likely to cross racial lines in casting their ballots.