Youth for the Win: Maximizing the Youth Vote

Just before the Obama campaign announced their intention to defund the left, Democracy Corps issues the second part of their new youth polling series: Youth for the Win! The report examines the youth electorate, identifies the opportunities and challenges facing Democrats in "maximizing the youth vote" in 2008, and calls on Democrats to do everything in our power to not let this demographic advantage go to waste.

There are four main takeaways from the poll:

1. Democrats maintain large and growing leads among young voters at the polls
2. Obama has the most support among all remaining candidates (even McCain), and he actually polls almost as well as the "Generic" Democrat numbers.
3. Winning over Clinton supporters will be a challenge for Obama
4. McCain has lower youth support, but is not yet identified with the Republican brand among young voters.

Affirming the obvious, the report shows rising youth support at the polls for Democrats, with most support this cycle going towards Senator Obama:

Obama will face two challenges in maximizing youth turnout this year. The first will be within his own party. Clinton supporters are far more likely to declare that they will not vote in November if Sen. Clinton is not the nominee:

Now, Obama has won the youth vote in most states by a landslide, but in a year of record youth turnout, Clintons numbers are still very very respectable. That's a lot of lost votes and that means Obama will have much shorter coattail for down-ballot candidates to ride. Bridges will need to be built/mended among Clinton's youth supporters in the coming months OR their activism will need to be channeled into forms of engagement aside from the Obama campaign (e.g. youth groups working at the state and local level).

The second challenge Obama faces in maximizing the youth vote for Democratic advantage in November comes from McCain. Polling shows that among young voters, McCain is not yet associated with the tarnished Republican brand. He's not popular by any means, but he should be far more unpopular considering his support for Republican policies.

With some serious help from the media, McCain has an image that distances him from traditional Republicans, and -- I've said it before, but I'll say it again -- he's skilled at playing the culture card to increase that "independent" image. He had a great turn on the Daily Show just last week in which Stewart let him slide on every major issue, and he'll be hosting Saturday Night Live this weekend. Now, that might seem like so much pandering to young people, but it's the type of pandering that most high-level Republicans are loathe to do.

The Obama campaign is going to need to tie McCain tightly to the Republican brand among young voters. Knowing their preference to "not go negative," I'm a little afraid that they won't be up to this task. Yet another reason why outside organizations can be a useful piece of progressive infrastructure.