Debunking Zogby and Newsweek

Two things in need of debunking today. First, Sarah informs me that Newsweek reporter Christopher Dickey was on Talk of the Nation today making scurrilous claims about 2004 youth turnout. When a caller asked him about the youth vote and their potential impact in November, here's what he had to say (paraphrase):

Dickey:"No, because young people don't vote"
Talk of the Nation: "Well they sure came out in primaries and caucuses this year"
Dickey: "Well they did but they were so bothered by Bush in 2004 but they failed to elect John Kerry... "

As all of you know, young people increased their vote by 4.3 million and their turnout rose from 40 to 49% over 2000 levels. They were also the only age demographic to vote for John Kerry, favoring the Democrat 54 - 45% over President Bush.

Resting the entire election on the shoulders of a single demographic is a dishonest and unfair analysis. As a friend and colleague of mine likes to say "the youth vote never turns out until they do. And even then it wasn't enough." Damned if you do, damned if you don't, aye Mr. Dickey?

If you have time, write Mr. Dickey a friendly email stating just that. His email address is shadowland [at] newsweek [dot] com.

Second, the delusional College Republicans hang their hat on a single poll by Zogby (of all people) to claim that McCain is starting to take the youth vote away from Obama:

However, a new ATV/ Zogby poll shows that is not the case, and that McCain’s support among young voters is increasing rapidly. The poll says that “McCain gained 20% and Obama lost 16% among voters ages 18-29.” Obama still leads among young voters 49%-38%, but with the way his support has been increasing, we might see McCain becoming very competitive for the youth vote soon.

This poll just goes to show that you shouldn’t believe all the hype. Young people all across America are getting excited for John McCain and the GOP, and will turn out in large numbers for our candidates in the fall.

I wouldn't put nearly so much faith in Zogby. He's notoriously inaccurate and with only ~1,000 respondents in the whole poll, his data on young voters probably has a ridiculously high margin of error. Add in the fact that he used landlines, and so probably missed a lot of low-income and Latino "cell only" users (who are also young) makes me think even less of his results.

And besides. 49% - 38%? If you assume a margin of error of even 5% points, that could put the race for young voters at 54 - 33%, not too far off from the Dem vs. Repub congressional results in the 2006 wave election. I'll take that margin anyday.