Quick Hits - August 7th: Ch-Ch-Ch-Changes Edition
I highly recommend that everyone read these first two links.
- Over at Open Left, 21st Century Democrats has an excellent post describing the drop off in turnout between the Presidential contest and down ballot races in key states. This is an excellent argument as to why Obama can't do this alone. He needs outside groups complimenting his ground game and promoting those down ballot races.
- In a preview from this Sunday's New York Times Magazine, Matt Bai analyzes the generational rift between new black politicians like Obama and Newark Mayor Cory Booker, and the old guard civil rights leaders like John Lewis and James Clyburn. The piece also touches on the rift at the institutional level between the NAACP and new players like Color of Change. It's a must read for those trying to get a handle on the new political landscape.
- CQ Politics has a lengthy and fascinating (if geeky) look at why 2008 is a particularly difficult year for pollsters.
- Of late Rock the Vote is championing veterans' voting rights. Heather Smith blogs about their latest campaign at the Huffington Post.
- Conservative Young America's Foundation still won't let reps from Campus Progress attend their conference (despite CP gladly admitting YAF alumns). Read the drama here.
- Confusing reports on the attitude of teenagers (13 - 19) on the direction of the country from a survey out of Medill.
- New Majority, a group out of Virginia, is planning on targeting local youth and Latinos.
- In Kentucky, Democrats are increasing their share of the electorate, thanks mainly to an influx of young voters.
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2008 Youth Vote in Context
The following charts and graphs are meant to contextualize the unique role that young voters played in the 2008 election, and their increasingly important role in a winning electoral coalition:
2008 Youth Electoral Map

2004 Youth Electoral Map

Youth Vote Partisan Advantage: 2000 - 2008

Youth Vote Historical Support: 1976 - 2008

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Medill: Things seem much worse than they did in 2003
That's my explanation. Of course people are more pessimistic now; in 2003, the War in Iraq was just starting, there was still hope that it was Bush's penultimate year in office, and An Inconvenient Truth was still just a PowerPoint presentation Al Gore was giving around the world to little-to-no press coverage. While the economy was not fantastic, the real estate bubble was still operating at full strength and there weren't massive foreclosures; inflation was closer to 2% than 5%.
Note that this survey is probably the last one of Millenials; those who are 13 now are the tail end of our generation, if not already part of the New Silent generation (Gen Z?).
Tail-end?
I had always read that the Millennials ended at around 2001 (I think this was Howe and Strauss's date?).
Disputed
It's a disputed term. Some (census, pollsters) put it at 1978 - 1996, others (Strauss/Howe) put it around 1983/4 - 2000ish.