Young Voters: More Bang For Your Buck?

Charles Franklin at Pollster.com has an interesting analysis (with graphs) of the relationship between age, voter turnout, and share of the electorate.

Franklin argues that even though younger voters are turning out in greater numbers, and were a huge factor in making Kerry competitive in '04, they still turn out less reliably, and it's in Obama's best interest to court the 58+ crowd. It's a pretty evenhanded analysis and you should go read it.

That said, I have two bones to pick.

First, as I've often noted, young or older voters isn't an either or proposition. It's about balance. How do you allocate resources to each group and what is the most effective way to do that. Peter Levine, the director of CIRCLE, has, I think, the correct response:

To be sure, older voters are prime targets. No one would advise a campaign otherwise. The question is where an extra dollar of campaign money makes the most difference. I would not be surprised if the marginal impact is actually greater among the young. Youth voting rose proportionally in 2004 and made a difference in the campaign. That happened despite very modest levels of investment in youth voting by the Democratic Party and nominee. It's quite plausible that each dollar spent on youth paid off quite nicely. (See our estimates of cost-effectiveness here; although unfortunately we cannot compare impact by age group.)

This is something I've heard a lot recently from folks - that registration and GOTV of youth is cheaper than persuasion of older voters (usually because it requires far few contacts). Something to think about.

My second bone to pick is that I think Franklin isn't seeing the forest for the trees. Even if there is movement between parties among older voters, we know that for the most part people's partisan habits generally stay fixed after their first few major elections. Dollars spent reaching out to young voters now builds those loyalties and lays the groundwork for future elections. It builds the party and helps break the mutual cycle of neglect we've seen between American youth and the political process. That's a positive long-term benefit not at all considered in Franklin's analysis.

It's not necessarily Franklin's fault. His website is dedicated to polling analysis of the current race - not long term party building. But it's something that should be discussed as a potential ROI on youth outreach. Too often polling analysis misses that bigger picture.