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Palin's Speech

Well, Palin's speech was the best of the night, but that's not saying much.

Palin gave a decent speech, but the problem was its sarcasm and its nasty tone. MSNBC actually made it onto the floor with the delegates (they surprisingly were not harmed at all) and began interviewing some people who were enamored by the spectacle of an Alaskan hockey mom ripping Barack Obama to shreds in her nasally accent.

But no matter what Pat Buchanan thinks, appealing to the Republican delegates, to the Republican base (read: the same 27% that support President Bush) is not going to win you an election. Yes, the speech was exactly what was needed in order to get 27 out of every 100 Americans fired up; unfortunately for Palin, McCain, and the GOP, I think just as many, if not more, are now leaning in Obama's direction.

When we look at the bit about community organizing ("I guess a small-town mayor is sort of like a 'community organizer,' except that you have actual responsibilities."), yes, it got a big reaction from the Republican faithful. But isn't this arguing against the social responsibility community organizers like Harriet Tubman and Martin Luther King, Jr. exemplified? I'm not saying it's a surprise that Palin or any Republican would use that language or tone; what I am saying is that Mr. Independent Voter, sick of politics as usual, and listening to this speech is not going to be taken with Ms. Palin's nasty jabs (even if it is in an Alaskan accent).

Yes, I think Palin was effective in shoring up the base tonight. But the problem for the McCain campaign is that she probably was just as effective at pushing those leaners even harder toward Barack Obama and Joe Biden.

(And I must ask -- how LAME is this convention??)

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September 4th, 2008 12:04am
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nasty speech but it could work

Submitted by everyonelovesjello on Thu, 2008-09-04 02:27.

I agree it was red meat for the base, and it was nasty, and nasally, and the synchronized booing of the crowd was cartoonish. I hope it turned off a lot of people, especially since so many are watching her now.

But negative politics wins more than it loses. And as an attack dog (which I'd say is the most important thing a VP brings to a campaign) she was formidable. Every comment was over the top in painting Obama a liberal, but they were concise and hard-hitting too. And the issues she hit on were ones independents care about: security, gas prices, taxes. But it was the sheer volume of attacks that was most worrying: when you go negative you have to go all out, you don't do one comment here, one there; you pour it on looking to amplify the uneasiness an undecided already has about your opponent. Add on that she played the small town and family/mom stuff up pretty well, and it worries me that she might have connected very well with rural and working class independents. I really hope not, but I've been through too many election cycles where everyone talks about how folks want post-partisanship throughout the election and then it's the negative campaign that ends up getting their votes.

Crossroads

Submitted by Craig Berger on Thu, 2008-09-04 08:41.

I can understand that concern, and given my own limited experience with the 2004 cycle -- wondering what is this country thinking? -- I have a bit of it myself. Because you're right -- it's actually not what they're thinking, but what they're feeling.

But I think what this is going to come down to is whether or not these attacks were considered desperate. You had 40 million people watch a speech that was given rave reviews last Thursday. In less than a week, McCain has clumsily chosen this running-mate after a lackluster vetting process, and America has watched her deliver a speech that attacked Obama left and right. If American voters think this is desperate, they probably won't take her attacks too seriously.

The other thing that comes into play is the trajectory of momentum. Even though expectations are low for McCain when compared with Obama, the most recent speech heard by America is going to be that of Palin, who, like I wrote above, did a good job delivering the speech she was given. So coming off of this speech, McCain is going to be compared just as much to Palin as Obama; if he fails to connect, the peak of the convention would have been on the third night. Probably not what you want inside of two months until Election Day.

I think we do need to monitor this to make sure she's not connecting with those rural and working-class voters, but my gut says she isn't. Just my opinion though! Thanks for your comment!

Can't have it both ways...

Submitted by Democrats Work on Thu, 2008-09-04 12:55.

The fact that Republicans would denigrate community organizers is just further proof that they are totally untethered from true conservatism - and reality. You can't be against both government and non-governmental solutions. What is left?

A conservative could plausibly say that he is against government because he wants individuals to step up in their communities to address problems. In fact, that is a major rationale for the "faith-based" initiatives promoted in the 1990s and 2000s, namely, filling the holes that government cannot. What you can't say is that you don't want government or individuals working in communities and improving people's lives. Last night was further evidence that some Republicans have no interest in a functioning society.

Don't underestimate her

Submitted by everyonelovesjello on Thu, 2008-09-04 18:19.

My instincts say she did end up connecting to a good portion of rural/working class America (the question is were they folks Obama could have won over or the ones who lean too much to the right to begin with). The convention has been pathetic in terms of all the focus on the base, but she turned that corner - her speech nailed down the base and now McCain has much more freedom to make his speech positive and focused on the independents and undecideds (if he doesn't it will be a total blunder so here's hoping).

I think the Dems nailed all the good attack lines on her (the Trig is her daughter's baby though was just weird). And I'd like to see them follow up with more examples of McCain's temper and impulsiveness, which I think would be a great line of attack. But the vetting stuff alone, I doubt connects with anyone who isn't already heavily into political insider news.

The main thing is that I worry though from what I've read and my friends and colleagues, that liberals are believing the attack lines a bit too much and are writing her off. Her weakness is McCain's age and her lack of experience, but I got worried as soon as I heard about her being picked and read up on her bio. Even Romney (who I loathe more than anyone in this world) was not half as good a pick as she was. She nails down the evangelical and gun owning base which McCain needs, she's a good attack dog (overall I'd say the uncommitted public is used to giving a VP latitude on this; they view the VP as separate from the candidate), and she'll do well stumping in the rural and working class districts. Taking a shot at Hilary's folks was farcical, but why not: it was a free shot worth taking. Equally, Biden was the smartest pick for Obama, he also added foreign policy credentials, but otherwise it was the same thing - he nails down the union base, he's an attack dog, and he'll do well stumping in the same rural/working class districts.

All that said, I think it will all come down to field organization and Obama has the best we've ever seen. And while Palin excites the evangelicals, they came out in lower numbers in 2004 and that was for their golden boy GW; McCain needs them at 2000 levels and to be a backbone of GOTV organizing as they were for Bush, and Palin or no, there's no way they are going to be excited enough to do that with McCain at the top of the ticket. I doubt they'll even come close to turning out at 2004 levels, let alone volunteering for him.