We Can Take the Drama, but Please No Sucker Punches

Bumped. In a worst case scenario in which Obama loses, this post identifies what will be the key messaging challenge for youth organizers on November 5th. --Mike

Personal drama, celebrity personalities, legal trouble, rumors, crowd comparing, covers of weekly mags…we even have celebrity speak outs, most recently from Pink and Matt Damon who are making their opinions loud and clear that they are definitely Team Obama/Biden.

It’s as if we are in the middle of the newest reality show.  But alas, it is the election of the next President, which nearly everyone would say is the most powerful position in the world and just about every young person I talk to says this election is critical for their jobs and families. 

Young Voters Up for Grabs?

Young voters are squarely with Team Obama/Biden, but some members of the media (and some tenacious young Republicans) don’t seem to think so.   Just last week the Wall Street Journal ran an article which essentially said that because of the Palin pick, young people are now up for grabs.

This assumes of course that young voters just fall out the sky to vote in large numbers for a candidate because they are young or give a good speech.  A candidate has to have a ground game in place for young people in order to secure their vote.  It is highly unlikely on the Republican side, this close to Election Day and especially since they are already facing a huge uphill climb since 2004, that they will be able to grab the youth vote.

In 2004, young people were the only age group to vote for the Democratic ticket, giving Kerry a 10% point advantage over Bush.  In 2006, young voters gave Democrats a 22% point advantage. In the most recent presidential poll done by Newsweek, young voters prefer Obama/Biden by a 27% point margin.  In fact, young voters are the only age group Team Obama/Biden is winning.

All of this good news on the youth vote does have a downside for Democrats.  If, like what happened in 2004, Republicans win, guess who gets blamed?  Yep, young voters.  Young people were told they didn’t turnout, that they didn’t perform yet again and that they are all hype—even though they increased their turnout more than any other age group and hit record turnout levels in 2004.  Clearly, the worry again if Obama does not win, is that young people will get blamed.

But...

Is liking someone enough to get someone’s vote, especially with young voters?  Will the economic times we are facing and that fact that poll after poll showing that the economy is the #1 issue young people care about win over the personality factor?  Will the election actually get back to talking about things like the economy?

In Nebraska, a few young Republicans I spoke with at the state’s Convention Watch Party are definitely Team McCain/Palin.  They like her because she is young, they feel like they can relate to her and the fact that she brings true conservative values and mom credentials to the ticket is a major plus.

Research however tell us time after time, in particular in studies done by researcher David Nickerson, the way you get young voters to the polls boils down to young people talking young people about the candidates/ issues and running a field program just like you would to any other group of voters.  The conventional wisdom that it’s all the cult of personality that gets young voters to the polls simply doesn’t ring true.

Drop the Lipstick, Bring the Focus Back

We have a banking system that is falling apart at the seams.  It started with Bear Sterns, then Fannie and Freddie and now we are beginning to hear the trickle of small and large banks that are being sold or being saved by the government (with our tax dollars).  AIG, one of the largest insurance companies, is asking the government right now for $40 billion dollars to save them from bankruptcy.  We are living what professors will teach in economic classes for the next 50 years or more and yet we are hearing more about lipstick.

If Team Obama/Biden and Team McCain/Palin are truly serious about targeting the youth vote, then here are a few suggestions to both teams:

1)     Go back to the hope place.  I am not the only one who wants to hear how we as a nation can solve our country’s problems.  Both liberal political commentator George Lakoff and conservative David Brooks are hungering for the hope place.  Is it any wonder why Reagan, who talked a lot about hope and the promise of our country and had a strong young voter outreach program on top of it all, won?  We all want hope back in politics, even if we do get distracted by lipstick and the cover of weekly mags occasionally.  Hope and the promise that our government can do better is why so many young people joined Team Obama to begin with.  Even if people are not saying it out loud, trust me, they want to be inspired, they want to be called to something bigger than themselves.  Don’t let us down and don’t listen to naysayers.  We want our hope back.

2)     Go bigger with young voter outreach programs.  While it’s true Obama has the best and biggest young voter outreach program in recent history, with not only a national youth director but state youth directors that have full field operations happening on and off college campuses.  McCain should do that as well, although it will be very difficult to build an operation in 50 days that Obama has been building over the last year.  Both campaigns absolutely need more buzz in youth circles.  Things have slowed down since the primary when it comes to the buzz, or what is often called “street marketing.”  Get local opinion leaders, mavericks, whatever you want to call them and get them to start wearing your shirts (think DJ at a club wearing a t-shirt with Obama’s face on it), do more parties like the Hope Gallery in Denver and look back at 2004 to what a lot of the youth groups from YDA to the League of Young Voters to the Bus Project and take a page out of their playbook because they were mad creative and it worked.  In fact, Obama's team is starting to do this...

3)     Keep the gloves off, but no sucker punches.  For anyone who wants the election to be warm and fuzzy, they should go to a secluded island tomorrow.  Our country is facing big problems and I don’t see either side being nice.  Young voters don’t mind “tough,” they just don’t want to be lied to.  Young people simply don’t buy a product on face value—information found on the internet and friends’ opinions matter and matter a lot.  Out of any of the age groups young people can see through the lies faster than any other voters since they have been marketed to since they were little kids—so it’s a skill fine tuned and trying to pull a fast one on young voters will most definitely back fire.