The Long March

Cross posted at MyDD

Last week, we had a conversation about the shape and speed of political change. In our conversation, Josh talked about the Long March, or, the pace at which our generation is expected to progress through the ranks of political institutions into places of power and prominence. In response to that, I thought I'd share some research I've done for the book I'm working on. (Yes, thanks to these good folks I am turning my blogging into a book. When we finish redesigning this site, there will even be a web page dedicated to it. More on that later.)

As part of my research, I just read Strauss and Howe's Millennials Rising, in which the authors lay out a timetable for just when our generation is expected to take over the reigns of government. I'd like to lay these down as markers, see where we are currently at, and make some suggestions about what Strauss and Howe are missing, and the complimentary roles of direct action and institutional change.

Here's what Strauss and Howe predict as the timetable for Millennials' Long March to power:

2007: First Millennials eligible for election to the House of Representatives.
2012: First Millennials reach 30 and are eligible for election to the US Senate.

Through the first half of the next decade, we are expected to produce our first crop of national leaders.

2017: The First Millennials will be eligible for the Presidency, Millennials will be the largest generation of eligible voters.
2019: 5% of all national leaders will be Millennials.
2025: 20% of all national leaders will be Millennials.
2032: The first Millennials turn 50. A majority of state governors and Congress are Millennials. We produce our first serious Presidential contender.
2042: We turn 60. We will control the White House and lower judgeships. Our first members will start to get mentioned as potential Supreme Court Justices.
2052: We turn 70. The Presidency is ours for the entire decade, as well as a majority of Supreme Court Justice positions, but we will begin to lose majority control of other leadership positions (Congress).
2062 - 2082: We will produce our final President. Drift down to 20% and then 5% of national leaders. The courts will be the one sector in which we still dominate.
2100+: R.I.P. Millennials

Some benchmarks I would add include:

• Turnout % and % share of electorate compared to previous generations (how is our level of power stacking up against previous generations at similar times in our generational cycle?)
• Municipal and state political leaders(elected officials and local party officials)
• Positions of influence within and % share of netroots
• Positions of leadership at existing social/political institutions (501c's, PACS)
• Creation of new 501c's and PACS (effectiveness of operations is also a factor here)

Not all of these are easily measurable, but for sure they should be included in any assessment of political power.

So where are we at?

Well, most of Strauss and Howe's benchmarks - which are primarily concerned with measuring our hold over the three branches of government, since they are still set in the future, are off the table.

Voting: We're way ahead of the curve. Not only is our generation the largest generation since the baby boom (and set to be bigger), but a greater percentage of us are turning out to vote than in previous generations. This means that campaigns and politicians are paying more attention to our issues, and spending more of their campaign cash courting us. This doesn't necessarily translate into political power to effect change, but it does lend us slightly more influence in the public debate (though that and a quarter will buy you the New York Post.)

Municipal and State Political Leaders: Millennials are eligible for a lot of these positions, but it would be a massive project to find these numbers, even just in the major metropolitan areas. I've got some calls into PFAW's Young Elected Officials Network to see if they have any stats on that front. But I expect that there are more millennials in power locally than you'd expect. The biggest example that comes to mind in that respect is the Mayor of Pittsburgh, who is 26 years old. Its not inconceivable that we've got a fair share of power in municipal governments through city council positions and mayoralties.

Netroots Influence: It seems counterintuitive, but I'm sorry to say that this is still pretty minimal. According to the latest blog-ads survey, Millennials account for just over 15% of blog readers. Meaning our engagement online is fairly low (because we are still relatively young and just beginning to come into our own politically), or Millennials are engaging politics online in different venues from those traditionally associated with the netroots (dKos, MyDD, TPM). These could include social networking sites (Obamamania) . . . and I don't know what else. I'm open to hearing from others where you think Millennials are engaging politics online. With our high volunteer rates, it could be that young people are primarily participating on the ground - in their communities and on their campuses.

In terms of big blogosphere players, the picture is probably a little bit better. I'm sure there are a good deal of well-known bloggers who are part of the Millennial generation. Any help identifying those folks would be appreciated.

501c's, PACS and other infrastructure: We're actually doing pretty well here, and aside from increasing our turnout at the ballot box, I think it's where we are most excelling as a generation. As I've said many times, there are a slew of organizations created by or run for our generation - Living Liberally Family, Young People For, Do More Than Vote, Oregon Bus Project, Music for America, Campus Progress, The League, DMI Scholars, Students for a New American Politics, Young Voter PAC, etc. The list could go on.

Last week I spoke with Iara Peng, Executive Director of Young People For. We talked about the history of YPF, the curriculum, and in general the lay of the land in the progressive youth movement. One of the points that she continually hit was that young people need structures with which to build their own political power, and they need training to understand how they can build their own power locally. That's a big part of what YPF Fellows do - examine the local political dynamics on their campus, find a place where they can both add value and effect change, and design a plan that can help them and their peers accumulate political power to make that change happen. With a focus on networking and sustainability, they are trying to build lasting structures that continue to support young people and increase their political capital long after a particular fellow moves on.

And that's what brings me back around to the conversation I had with my co-blogger Josh. If I read him correctly, Josh was suggesting that, in light of the 2006 vote, the time has come again for mass gatherings and direct action - tactics which we both agreed failed early in the Bush Presidency. My preference for action runs more to participating in the Long March, and, with smart investments and some better networking, to speeding up that march and our accumulation of political power. These aren't necessarily either/or options. It is most definitely both/and. These new institutions can be drivers of new direct action campaigns and mass gatherings if that is what the moment requires.

And to be sure, there is a question of talent and intent. We can create all of the new institutions we want, and elect as many Millennials as we can to office, but as the years march on, all that will be for naught - or at least not much beyond the status quo - if these new leaders do not embrace new ideas for organizing, new policy solutions, and a radically different conception of the relationship between the governing and the governed.

I don't have a brilliant ending to sum up this piece. This is an open ended essay, and its a conversation I think we should continue to have. I'm wondering what everyone else thinks -- about the Long March, and how we can continue to speed it up; about direct action and how we can move the debate and stop some really bad stuff from happening while we're still a generation out of power.

And if anyone can help me put numbers to some of the metrics I listed above, that would be much appreciated.