Gallup/USA Today/MTV Poll Confirms Obama's Youth Support (Updated)
Update: Ironically, USA Today has a much better write-up (and a cover-story, no less) on the poll results than does their partner Gallup. Most notably, Gallup buried the headline in their analysis. While Obama's support over McCain may be fairly typical for those following youth polling this year, it is anything but typical when taken in the context of most Presidential elections (emphasis mine):
A USA TODAY/MTV/Gallup Poll of registered voters 18 to 29 years old shows Democrat Barack Obama leading Republican John McCain by 61%-32%, the most lopsided contest within an age group in any presidential election in modern times.
And your daily Schadenfreude. Republicans are coming to grips with just how bad this is for them in the long-term:
Some Republicans fear that whatever the outcome Nov. 4, movement of this generation to Obama could set political views through their lifetimes, reverberating in future elections.
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Nothing too shocking in this new poll from Gallup/MTV/USA Today:
Bottom Line
A majority of 18- to 29-year-olds are registered to vote in this election and have given it a lot of thought. They prefer Barack Obama, both as an alternative to John McCain, but also as the candidate who is the most likely to understand their problems and to bring positive change to their own lives. Casting a ballot for Obama also carries the excitement of making history. Nearly 8 in 10 consider this election to be more important than other elections, if not the most important in the past 50 years. What remains to be seen is how many of this highly sought-after demographic will in fact turn out and vote on Election Day, and thus help to determine the winner.
Notice how few young people find McCain to be independent or willing to put the nation ahead of his own political interests. Despite all messaging to the contrary, young people do not believe that John McCain is a "maverick," or that he puts "country first."
As I said, nothing here is at all new - even Obama's lead over McCain among youth is holding steady at ~2 - 1. As we leave the voter registration phase of this election cycle and turn our eyes towards turnout, it is starting to look like the more interesting question will be less about youth support at the top of the ticket, and more about how much young voters will turnout for down-ballot Democrats who can help Obama accomplish his legislative agenda once in office.
More to come on that front soon.
2008 Youth Vote in Context
The following charts and graphs are meant to contextualize the unique role that young voters played in the 2008 election, and their increasingly important role in a winning electoral coalition:
2008 Youth Electoral Map

2004 Youth Electoral Map

Youth Vote Partisan Advantage: 2000 - 2008

Youth Vote Historical Support: 1976 - 2008

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