Harvard University IOP Releases New Poll: Young People Energized, Still Voting Heavily for Obama

This may not be ground-breaking news, but I thought I'd post something about it anyway.

In a survey of 2,406 18-24 year old Americans conducted by Harris Interactive from September 12th through October 6th, 2008, the Harvard University Institute of Politics found that youth continue to be a strong force in this campaign, and they have, by and large, placed most of their enthusiasm and energy behind the Obama campaign.

• U.S. Senator Barack Obama is favored among 18-24 year-old likely voters by nearly a 2-1 margin over U.S. Senator John McCain in the race for President. Just weeks before Election Day, Senator Obama holds a twenty-six point lead (56%-30%; 15% undecided) over Senator McCain in the 2008 presidential race, a lead that has remained virtually unchanged since July (55%-32%) and March (53%-32%) 2008 IOP polling. Obama’s lead grows slightly among young people saying they will “definitely” be voting (59%-31%). As IOP polling also showed in July, young people continue to say they “trust” Obama more than McCain on eight out of ten major domestic and foreign policy issues facing the country.
• Youth are ready to answer a new call for public service, including working in government. Almost six in ten (59%) 18-24 year-olds say that they are personally interested in engaging in some form of public service to help the country. Nearly one-half (47%) of this group said engagement could include working for the federal, state or local government; almost a third (32%) said they would think about getting involved in a political campaign; and nearly two in ten (17%) said they would consider running for office. Importantly, this is one issue where strong support is seen regardless of party (Democrats 68%, Republicans 63%, Independents 57%), presidential candidate supported (67% Obama supporters, 63% McCain supporters), or gender (63% women, 55% men) of young people today.
• Economy is ten times more important to young people today than one year ago. More than half of young people (53%) say economic issues are their top concern. IOP polling showed 30% of young people expressing the same opinion in March and only 5% in the fall of 2007. During the same time period, the percentage of young people who said Iraq and the War in general was their top concern fell from 37% (fall 2007) to 20% (March 2008) to 9% today. No other issue in this year's poll garnered more than 9%.
• Sen. Biden Vice-Presidential pick shows little effect, while Gov. Palin pick has hurt among Independents and women. When 18-24 year-old likely voters were asked whether each candidate’s vice-presidential selection made them more or less likely to support that ticket in November, six in ten (60%) said that Senator Obama’s pick of U.S. Senator Joe Biden made no difference with just 21% saying the pick made them more likely and 19% saying less likely to support the ticket (Net effect: 2% points positive). However, while only 35% of young people said Senator McCain’s selection of Alaska Governor Sarah Palin made no difference, 40% of young voters said the pick made them “less likely” to support the ticket with 25% saying “more likely.” (Net effect: 15% points negative). Among young people self-identifying as Independents, the Biden VP pick had a net 8% point negative effect, while the Palin VP pick had a net 22% point negative effect.
• More than half of young people currently supporting a presidential candidate are interested in volunteering for their candidate’s campaign. Among 18-24 year-olds currently supporting Senator Obama, nearly six in ten (57%) say they would be interested in volunteering for the presidential campaign if asked (17% very interested; 40% somewhat interested). Slightly less than half (47%) of Senator McCain supporters said they would volunteer on their candidate’s campaign if asked to do so (16% very interested, 31% somewhat interested).

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• More young people see the effectiveness of political engagement than one year ago. Nearly seven in ten 18-24 year-olds today (69%) say they see political engagement as an effective way of solving our nation’s problems, up six percentage points from fall 2007 (63%) and fall 2006 (60%) IOP polling. Fewer young people today agree that politics is not relevant to their lives (28%) than did one year ago (32%) and fewer believe that elected officials don’t share their priorities (69%) than did one year ago (71%) or two years ago (75%). In addition, over six in ten young people (68%) say running for office is an honorable thing to do, up from one year ago (67%) and two years ago (66%).

The thing that sticks out to me is the total rejection of McCain and his philosophy. At the top of the bulleted list of outcomes, the first two are the most telling. Obama's lead has largely stayed the same; if it did change at all, he gained a few more percentage points compared to March's numbers. But when we pair that with the bullet point immediately below, we get that basis for the strong, rock-solid support for Obama: activism through sacrifice and working within the system. With Obama repeatedly linking a call to service with this nation's young people, he's clearly established trust with this age group on this issue -- even among Republicans and McCain supporters. This notion of serving something greater than yourself is very appealing to them, given their loads of experience with volunteerism and the large-scale social traumas they've gone through (9/11, Katrina, financial meltdown). While McCain pushes the military as a way of serving the greater good, Obama sees more diversified opportunities. And you can even see this dedication to serving others in the numbers that are willing to volunteer for their candidate's campaign. Obama's recognized this and with his fundraising advantage, has enabled hundreds of thousands of youth to have those opportunities in many small towns across the country. With McCain's limited financial resources, he doesn't offer those same opportunities (even though his supporters also want to be more involved).

The other thing I noticed is the job this election has done in raising enthusiasm for the political process as a means of creating positive change. Over the past few years, this election cycle has convinced one person in every group of ten 18-24 year olds that the political process is effective. With six out of ten already agreeing with this premise two years ago in 2006, seven out of ten now agree.

Finally, as we've been able to establish for a few weeks now, the idea that Palin somehow attracted and mobilized a large segment of youth for the GOP ticket is, well.. bunk. Young people are repelled from the ticket (40% said it made them less likely to support the ticket, compared with 25%, who said it made them more likely).