Karl Rove Will Target the Youth Vote
In case you missed it, there have been some oversight hearings lately about improper partisan political activities on the part of our government. You can watch a video of Henry Waxman and other committee members grilling a clueless government official about these allegations here.
A happy outcome of these hearings is that the public now has access to some Republican strategy documents (pdf) related to the 2006 and 2008 elections, and it looks like Young Voters are going to be a priority for the GOP in 2008. Here's a slide from the presentation discussed in yesterday's committee hearing:
This doesn't surprise me at all. We already know that young voters were a decisive part of many Democratic victories in 2006. As was the Latino vote (which is also a young vote).
The presentation also noted that in 2006:
- 22 races were decided by 2 points or less
- 18 races were decided by fewer than 5,000 votes
- 6 races were won by fewer than 1,000 votes
Increased young voter turnout probably makes the difference in lot of those races. It's what makes the work of groups like the League of Young Voters - who reach out to youth that are normally passed over by traditional GOTV - all the more important, and makes me wonder even further about the strategic thinking behind recent funding decisions by the Democracy Alliance.
We know the GOP will be targeting us and our peers in 2008 (or at least looking to suppress our turnout). This is not the time for Democrats to take our vote for granted.
2008 Youth Vote in Context
The following charts and graphs are meant to contextualize the unique role that young voters played in the 2008 election, and their increasingly important role in a winning electoral coalition:
2008 Youth Electoral Map

2004 Youth Electoral Map

Youth Vote Partisan Advantage: 2000 - 2008

Youth Vote Historical Support: 1976 - 2008

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MC Rove
Does this explain MC Rove?
Strategery
If this was their strategy, I would rest easy. More likely we’ll see wedge issue politics, voter suppression, and lots of 72-hour action from evangelicals and college Republicans.
But seriously
Youth turnout definitely makes a difference in those races. When you’re talking about 22-point spread in a 10% demographic, you’re talking about a 2% shift (which is really a 4% margin) in the final outcome. Rove knows this, and also knows that there’s no way the GOP machine can squeeze more from their base, if they can even hold that coalition together in the first place.
maybe they think
that if they fund College Republicans better they’ll get more young voters?
I dunno what else they could be planning. Unless they’re going to reverse Repug stances on every single issue in existence, they’re wasting their time/money.
To quote herr decider, bring it on.
[[http://www.losethelabel.org/user/3|-6.00, -4.15]]
College Repub Funding
The College Republicans are extremely well funded. They are one of the top 10 527 committees in the country. They have more money than the Young Democrats and College Democrats combined. And their money comes not only from large conservative foundations and corporations, but almost half of it comes from small donors.
yeah but maybe he's gonna give them MORE
muahaha. muahahahaha! MUAHAHAHAHAHAHAAHA!!!
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RlZSt…
[[http://www.losethelabel.org/user/3|-6.00, -4.15]]