Final Pre-Election Youth Poll
Since May of this year, Democracy Corps/Greenberg Quinlan Rosner Research have released 7 polls focusing on young voters. This weekend, they released the final poll in their "Youth for the Win" series.
Here are the major findings from what is undoubtedly the last poll of young voters before Election Day:
- Obama has never posted a higher margin among young people (now 62 – 27 percent Obama). He continues to draw exceptional favorability ratings, while John McCain and Sarah Palin have never been less popular.
- John Kerry won the youth vote (54 – 45 percent), but lost white people under 30 (44 - 55 percent). Obama leads 51 – 38 percent among white youth, up from 43 – 42 percent in the late summer.
- Young people are also confident about the outcome. A 71 percent majority believe Barack Obama will win the election; even among Republicans, 39 percent predict an Obama victory, just 53 percent believe McCain will win.
- Young people’s commitment to vote continues to grow. Now 67 percent describe their likelihood of voting as a “10” on a ten-point scale, the highest number we recorded this year and fully 18 points higher than it was in the summer.
- What is most remarkable is the faith young people evince in Obama’s ability to turn things around in this country. By better than a 2:1 margin, young people believe that, even with everything stacked against him, Obama can change the direction of the country. To state the obvious, the post-election period will be one of very high expectations.
Nothing too unexpected here. I wonder about the excitement factor among McCain's youth supporters, and if they will show up for what looks like a blowout. I guess we'll have to wait until tomorrow night to find out.
Breaking News
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2008 Youth Vote in Context
The following charts and graphs are meant to contextualize the unique role that young voters played in the 2008 election, and their increasingly important role in a winning electoral coalition:
2008 Youth Electoral Map

2004 Youth Electoral Map

Youth Vote Partisan Advantage: 2000 - 2008

Youth Vote Historical Support: 1976 - 2008

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