Tonight's Exit Poll Numbers Will Only Show Youth "Share of the Electorate"

CNN is now reporting on Exit Polling data, so I bumped this back to the top of the page. This is VERY important. --Mike

This is super important for any bloggers and journalists covering the youth vote today.

According to CIRCLE, today's exit polls will only reveal youth share of the electorate. They will not tell us what the hard numbers are on youth turnout, and they will not tell us what percent of eligible youth actually cast a ballot. As such, today's exit polls will not be an accurate measure of increased or decreased youth turnout.

Here's information from CIRCLE on when different sets of data will become available:

WHAT: Information on youth (18-29) voters.

WHEN: Nov. 4 (probably by 8 pm ET) – Youth voter share available

Youth share indicates the percentage of those who vote who are 18-29. This is not a measure of youth turnout. If voting is up across all age groups, youth share may remain close to the 2004 number (17 percent). CIRCLE will release the total youth share and the share of all the votes for McCain/Palin and Obama/Biden that were cast by young people.

Nov. 5 (probably by 8 am ET) – Youth turnout estimate available

Youth turnout measures what percentage of youth turned out to vote. The CIRCLE youth turnout estimate will be the only basis for saying whether youth turnout rose or fell in 2008. Reporting that youth turnout rose or fell based on the youth share as reported by the exit polls would be an error.

Additionally, if you are looking for information on past youth turnout, or demographic data on eligible young voters in 2008, check out this fact sheet (pdf) from CIRLCE.