Gen We: Post Election Analysis: Cohort Replacement and More Investment

Earlier this week, Generation We, in conjunction with Ruy Teixeira, released an updated survey (pdf) of the attitudes and activities of Millennials in the 2008 election (attached, download at bottom). Covering everything from voting rates to views on the role of government, it reads as a good update to an NPI report that we often quote: The Progressive Politics of the Millennial Generation.

What sets it apart from most of the analysis of the youth vote that you've read here and elsewhere is that the report, like the book on which it is based, isn't just a primer on youth participation. It's a generational analysis that is concerned with the political power of Millennials now, as they enter the electorate in significant numbers, as well as 10, 20, and 30 years from now, when Millennials will comprise a plurality of the electorate. You should read it (pdf) and bookmark it. It's a great reference guide if you don't want to sort through 6 different data sets looking for information on Millennials.

During their press briefing to release the report, one of the more interesting topics of discussion focused on cohort replacement - the impact that the Millennials will have as they age into the electorate and older, more conservative demographics age out (Read: die).

The voting inclinations of the Millennials, hugely important in this election, could become even more so over time. If Millennials remain oriented as they are and maintain the generational consistency they have shown so far, the simple process of cohort replacement—more Millennials moving into the electorate and taking the place of older voters—will increase the Democrats’ margin over the GOP by an additional two and a half percentage points in 2012 and then by another two and a half points in 2016. That’s quite a shift.

And that shift will definitely be toward the Democrats and the relatively progressive politics they represent, not just toward Obama. In 2008, the 66-32 margin for Obama among 18-29 year olds was not far off the 63-34 margin for House Democrats among this age group. Even more important, party identification among 18-29 year olds, according to data released by the Pew Research Center right before the election, has been running 29 points pro-Democratic (61-32), an absolutely stunning figure. Party identification is the single strongest predictor of how people vote and tends to stick with individuals once they form an attachment early in their political lives. It appears that the Democrats in particular and progressive politics in general will be reaping the benefits of Millennials’ strong political leanings for many years to come.

This is very encouraging, but I just want to issue a word of caution. As a number of panelists mentioned at the press briefing, this swing towards the Democrats didn't come out of nowhere and the progressive politics of Millennials is not fait accompli. It was greatly assisted by the work of the Obama campaign and independent youth organizations reaching out to young people and including them in the process.

As Al Acker, President of the Young Democrats, noted during the panel, youth groups had far less support this year than in previous years. And Obama's campaign is just that - a campaign. We don't know how or if it will translate into a permanent piece of infrastructure. Out of all the state parties in the country, only one - Ohio - had anything even resembling a strong youth outreach component. The party committees (DSCC, DCCC) are still not sold on the idea of youth outreach as a part of their work vital to the long term health of the party. All this as word comes down that the 50 State Strategy, another vital piece of progressive infrastructure focused on making long term gains for the party, may not survive beyond this election cycle.

As the chart in the sidebar shows, Republicans had the youth vote during the Reagan years and they lost it as they stopped reaching out and talking to young voters. Right now the youngest Millennials are very young. Young enough that Obama's historic election will be a permanent fact of life to them, as natural as computers and cell phones are to those growing up in the last ten years. There's no guarantee that what we did this year will move them to support Democrats or even Progressives without continued investment in outreach - anymore than the youngest of Obama's supporters this year were moved by us "old-hands" pining about the Dean days