The Rising (Progressive) American Electorate, A New Survey by Women's Voices, Women's Vote

Women’s Voices, Women’s Vote (WVWV) released a new survey on voting and civic engagement in the 2008 election (h/t Tom Manatos). The survey looks specifically at the “Rising American Electorate”, defined by those demographics that are increasingly progressive and populous--unmarried women, African American voters, Latino and young voters. These demographics were strong Obama supporters and voters. The survey totals 1,649 interviews, 337 of which are of young voters. While the youth sample size is smaller than other surveys on similar topics (as well as when compared to the over three demographics groups in the survey), it is the most recent survey of its kind to investigate the 2008 election. Let’s begin with some of the big findings on young voters.

• 79 percent support the Stimulus package that was passed by Congress and signed by President Obama
• Only 36 percent rate their personal economic situation as ‘Excellent’ or ‘Good‘
• 77 percent feel that President Obama is speaking directly to them and the issues they care about
• 46 percent reported that they were absolutely certain they would vote in the 2010 election cycle.

The broad support for President Obama and the stimulus package probably stems from the fact that campaign promises were kept about college affordability and green jobs, especially given the fact that two-thirds of young people view their economic situation as ’just fair’ or ’poor’. And just two nights ago, President Obama addressed another issue that has found strong support from young people in other surveys--community service. The proposal, known as the Kennedy-Hatch Serve America Act would help “get the underemployed (primarily young people) working in communities badly hit by the recession”, argue Christopher Gergen and Gregg Vanorek in a Washington Times Op-Ed piece. Peter Levine, on a similar line of reasoning, supports the Kennedy-Hatch Act, too:

The more advantaged half of the young population that attends college receives educational opportunities subsidized by the public. But those who do not continue formal education beyond high school find that almost all government-funded educational programs have age limits of 18 or 21. Working-class youth are basically subsidizing their more advantaged peers' learning opportunities with their tax dollars. Service programs such as YouthBuild, Public Allies, City Year, and the National Civilian Community Corps (among others) help to right this imbalance by offering opportunities to young adults who may not be on the college track.

This survey by WVWV finds that the Rising American Electorate is increasingly progressive, but warns that there are other forces at work to stop the momentum. This is perhaps true for African American and Latino voters who have taken socially conservative stances on some issues, such as gay rights. The Proposition 8 vote in California, which sought to change the state’s constitution to ban gay marriage, was supported by majorities of both African American (70 percent YES) and Latino voters (53 percent YES) of any age. Not so with young voters, who were the only demographic group against the proposition (61 percent NO). More broadly, Millennials are the most progressive cohort in decades, a finding from The Millennial Pendulum, already blogged about by FM co-bloggers Mike and Craig. And then add to all that the parity in political party identity, which favors the Democrats.

An election may have just passed, but 2010 is already on the horizon. The WVWV report finds that young voters are the most likely demographic to “drop-off” their participation rate from the 2008 presidential election to the 2010 cycle, but the report doesn’t reveal the percentage of youth that intend to vote in 2010, regardless of the degree of certainty. Still, it is true that young voters, along with all voters, have lower voter turnout rates in non-Presidential cycles. Young voters did increase their turnout from the 2002 to 2006 midterm elections (PDF), but with the current recession and uncertainty about funding, GOTV and registration efforts will need to be efficient for 2010 in order to keep up the participation level among young voters.