The Horse Race and the Youth Narrative

This is it. I'm officially out. See y'all in two weeks.

When I think about the youth vote narrative this year, and what 2008 means for young voter engagement, I have to confess that I am of a split mind.  It's not turnout that I'm worried about, it's how the campaigns are organizing young voters and what the outcome of the primaries will mean for how the media narrative will play out.

That might seem like a shallow concern at first, but you might remember that in 2004, despite a record increase in turnout and an overwhelming preference for Kerry over Bush, every single major media outlet in the country reported that "the youth vote didn't turn out."  By the time this narrative was corrected, it was too late.  The story was already out, the meme established.  At MFA, when we approached reporters and pitched them the real story about youth turnout, their response was "sorry, we've already told our youth vote story."

That had implications on funding, implications as to how seriously politicians, staffers, and consultants regarded young people as voters/constituents, and most of all it had an effect on how many young voters themselves regarded their generation.  Sometimes young voters themselves are the hardest people to convince that their generation is not apathetic and disengaged, and these stories gave millions of young voters the idea that - despite all our efforts - young people were worthless in politics.

Earlier today, Chris Bowers at MyDD posted his latest update on the 2008 horse race, declaring that, barring a loss in Iowa, the nomination appears to be Hillary's to lose.  Frankly, I worry about what that means for young voters.

This is a dicey topic, and I have no desire to see this devolve into a salad fight among the various supporters of Obama, Edwards or Hillary.  Maybe that's too much to ask, but I'm going to proceed with this diary anyway as I think it is worth thinking about and discussing.  

Right now, the youth vote is with Obama.  He's riding the youth wave, and that manifests itself in a number of ways: in his message about a generational change, in the tremendous grassroots activism that young voters are organizing on his behalf, in poll numbers that show him doing well among young people (particularly college educated youth and young men; among activists and non activists), and most importantly to this discussion, how the media talks about his campaign.  At this point in the cycle, a positive youth vote narrative goes hand in hand with a successful run by Obama.  

The only problem is, as Chris's polling shows, there is no clear path for Obama to capture the nomination at this point.  So what happens if Obama doesn't get the nomination?  Will that generate another negative youth vote narrative in the media?  Have we made enough progress among the political class to avoid blowback in terms of the attention that campaigns pay to our generation?  I'm not sure.  

Then of course we need to reckon with the candidate who does get the nomination.  Edwards has a shot at the nomination with his lead in Iowa (and I will confess that I am an Edwards supporter - though I do feel conflicted, considering all I've laid out above), and between One Corps, Young Americans For Edwards, and his message of "being the change we want to see," I think he has a solid infrastructure in place to incorporate Obama followers into his campaign.  But at the same time, young people just don't like Edwards.  The last polls for which I saw a youth breakout had Edwards clocking in around 9% - well below Obama and, yes, Clinton.

So what about Hillary?  Well polls show that she has some numbers behind her - particularly among women and non-college youth.  Yet no substantial grassroots efforts seems to be materializing in support of her campaign.  There is no visible youth component to her official campaign, and I've heard some folks in the "HillaryRoots" complain that the campaign is distant.  Is her support among young voters real, or is it just name recognition early in the cycle?  If she did win the nomination, would young people really have a substantial place at the table?  Would that place be substantial enough that by November 2008 we could overcome any negative youth narrative that an Obama loss would surely cause in the media?

I don't know, but I'm worried about the youth vote getting burned again.  People are going to vote the way they will vote, and I hope I'm wrong about Hillary and Edwards.  I don't really have anywhere to go with this.  This post isn't an argument for Obama based purely on a desire for a good youth vote narrative.  People should vote for the candidate they think will really change our country or enact the most progressive policies.  This has been going through my head a lot lately, and I think it's worth thinking about.  Maybe this post will shake the Hillary folks into embracing young voters more.  Or maybe reporters will read this post and think twice when they write their stories next winter/spring.  Maybe some other great idea will emerge out of the discussion here.  Or maybe I've just provided flame-bait for all the partisans to latch onto.  I hope it's not the latter.