The Millennial Ascendancy

I wanted to make sure readers saw two articles/news stories published this week about Millennials, their political behavior, and the consequences for America's political future.

The first, written by Paul Waldman, appeared at truthout.org and is titled "So Long, Alex P. Keaton." Waldman looks back at the glory days for conservatives, when young people's political attitudes were represented on the silver screen by Alex P. Keaton in the sitcom Family Ties. The show's time on television (1982-1989) coincided with the Republican Party's reign in America; Keaton's admiration of Ronald Reagan was mimicked in thousands of households across the country by young people. Waldman then pivots to the rising Millennials:

Start with the obvious: 67 percent of voters under 29 cast their ballot for Barack Obama, a result unequalled since exit polling began. (If you're interested, exit-poll data dating back to 1976 can be found at the Roper Center.) Despite periodic proclamations that young conservatives are poised for a comeback (see, for instance, this lengthy portrait in The New York Times Magazine only six years ago of the "Young Hipublicans" who were ready to take the country by storm), young people aren't finding much to like about today's GOP. And as a pair of new reports from the Center for American Progress on the present and future of American ideology show, those feelings are likely to run much deeper than a single election or a single candidate.

While they cover a great deal of ground, the reports contain some particularly interesting points about the millennial generation. In "State of American Political Ideology, 2009,", we learn that young people are the most progressive age group overall and the most progressive on social issues, which might not be surprising. But they are also the most progressive age group in their opinions about the role of government, which might be. And as the other report, "New Progressive America," points out, this generation's share of the voting population will increase every year until 2020, when they will represent nearly 40 percent of the electorate.

Meanwhile, J. Patrick Coolican at the Las Vegas Sun looks at the bad news for the GOP found in the Millennial reports, especially Ruy Teixeira's.

His new report for the liberal Center for American Progress serves as a sort of valedictory coda, detailing the new Democratic majority and breaking down the 20-year trend in Nevada and other states.

It’s a striking document and a bracing jolt to Republicans.

The 2008 election was a mirror of 1988, with President Barack Obama winning 53 percent of the vote, matching that of George H.W. Bush. Here’s what happened: During those 20 years, the minority share of the vote increased by 11 percentage points and the white college-educated by 4. The white, working-class portion decreased by 15.

If you’re a Republican, these are “uh-oh” trends.

Other trends seem destined to exacerbate the Republican plight. Obama won the millennials — Americans born between 1978 and 2000 — by 66 percent to 32 percent. This generation is adding 4.5 million voters every year.

This is not breaking news to us. Most of you reading this site know that the GOP is in significant peril and on the edge of becoming irrelevant to young people.

These posts are signs, though, that we're seeing this idea of a new, energized, progressive generation gaining power escaping from the political junkie bubble. In other words, the casual political observer will begin to understand and expect a new political direction for America should this narrative continue to be covered by conventional media.

Why is that important? Well, I agree with those who point out that it doesn't quite matter if our elders are willing to respect us. They point out that we're eventually going to change this country whether they like it or not. At the same time, though, the faster this country accepts the large change that's coming, the more opportunities we might be able to have now instead of tomorrow. Either way, we're headed for a sea change, and these two well-researched and well-written articles hit the nail on the head.