Immigrant Voting Blocks and Millennial Diversity

Just caught this article from yesterday's New York Times (read it before it goes behind the subscription wall) about the social activism of the children of immigrants on behalf of their parents and grandparents. I thought it would be worth it to talk about this growing voting block and what it means.

With Washington having failed to pass an immigration overhaul, advocates are increasingly turning to immigrants’ children as allies in their political efforts. Many young people raised in this country know their way around a system that sometimes baffles their parents. Those who are citizens can speak out for those who have yet to get their papers. And they can vote.

As the NYT article notes, a lot of these kids were either born here in the 70s and 80s. For some of them, their parents benefited from the 1986 Immigration Reforms that gave amnesty and opened a path to citizenship for millions. Some of these children were immigrants themselves and have since gained citizenship.

And they can vote. That's really the key here. Undocumented immigrants have lacked a voice in this country for decades. But that's about to change, and it's a change that will be brought about by and large by Millennial voters. We've heard hundreds of times how Millennials are the most diverse generation in American History. A big part of that is due to the number of immigrants or the children of immigrants in our generation that are quickly becoming eligible to vote.

Now, I know that "immigrants" - even undocumented ones - is a category that is broader than "Hispanic," but bare with me on this. This is likely a trend playing out across race, ethnicity and country of origin, but it is particularly visible in the Hispanic community:

Every year since the 2000 elections an average of 425,000 native-born Latinos has turned 18 years old and become eligible to vote. While Latinos make up 8% of eligible voters, they represent 12% of the electorate that is between 18 and 24 years old.

These kids are also less socially conservative and more skeptical of the war than their parents. (pdf) That's going to make a difference in the coming years as more and more districts - particularly in New Mexico, Arizona, Nevada and Florida (swing states, all), where the Hispanic share of the electorate is increasing dramatically - become competitive or even solidly Blue.

There are challenges, to be sure. The children of immigrants are less likely than other youth demographics to register and participate at the voting booth. Nevertheless, this is clearly a demographic to be targeted in 2008. From the Times article:

He admitted there are challenges. Many young adults are focused on work, rather than community. And others come from homes where parents made them suspicious of politicians, thanks to the corruption that marked Mexican politics. Mr. Magallan focused his efforts on the children of his group’s earliest members, figuring they knew the issues and were willing to help. He hopes they will reach out to friends and encourage them to register to vote.

“The fight for immigration reform in 2009 starts now,” Mr. Magallan said. “We have to register all the children of immigrants who are 17 now so they can vote in the next election. These are the people who can then lobby our legislators in 2009.”

This fact sheet by the Pew Hispanic Center (pdf) marks out the 100 congressional districts with the largest voting Hispanic populations. I don't have time for it at the moment, but it would be interesting to compare those districts with the results of close elections from 2006 that just tipped to one side or another. That could give us a pretty good idea as to what we can expect from this new generation of voters in 2008 and where to focus our resources.

This is going to be a key demographic for a continued progressive majority and any successful legislative campaign for comprehensive immigration reform.