Suck it Frum; Young White Voters are Shifting Democratic Too

A few weeks ago I posted about a Greenberg Quinlan Rosner poll (pdf) which found that the only youth demographic in which the Republicans still held a slim advantage over the Democrats was among white youth. That poll also got picked up in other places around the blogosphere, notably by David Frum who used it to go on a nativist rant about the failures of our immigration policy and the decline of white power.

Well, GQR released a memo (pdf) yesterday that in part clarifies the Republican "edge" among young white voters. Here's what they had to say (emphasis mine):

• The Democrats are getting landslide margins with voters under 30; they are even winning whites under 30 by 14 points.
• Instead of losing younger white non-college men by 19 points as in 2004, the Democratic Presidential candidate now is losing them by only 2.
• One of the key blocs of ‘base’ voters for Democrats is unmarried women – who could comprise a quarter of the electorate. The Democrats are winning them by two to one; they are winning white unmarried women by over 20 points.

Yeah, winning whites under 30 by 14 points coupled (probably in part fueled by) a massive, 17 point swing among non-college men and a huge advantage among single (and probably young) women. Rearrange the deck-chairs all they want, deport all the undocumented workers they want, there is nothing that can save Republicans from this demographic shift except for Democratic incompetence. (So don't screw it up).

I am slightly confused as the two GQR memos seem in part to contradict each other. In the first poll report, GQR notes that Democrats are losing among "white" youth by 2 points. The most recent memo seems to indicate that the 2 point deficit is purely among non-college males, but the poll didn't make that distinction. It could be that the 2 point deficit in both memos are coincidence. The poll is measuring support in a presidential trial heat, and yesterday's memo may just measure overall party support. If anyone can help clarify, I'd appreciate it.

In either case, you really can't argue with the 14 point lead Democrats hold among all whites under 30. Here's some more interesting findings in the memo:

• While the Democratic Presidential candidate is winning the Kerry counties by a two-to one margin, the Republican candidate is only winning the Bush counties by 1 point (46 to 45 percent). The Republican nominee will struggle to come back in the battleground states. Just as important, a lot of Republican incumbents will be running in supposedly ‘red’ districts and states, but find them evenly divided. The Republican Presidential candidate is barely ahead among white rural voters (48 to 41 percent).
• The Democratic Presidential candidate is carrying those with family members serving in Iraq by almost the same margin as for voters overall, 50 to 43 percent. Democratic Congressional candidates who have been prominently trying to change Iraq policy have an even larger lead, 53 to 42 percent.
• The Democratic Presidential candidate is carrying all Catholics by 18 points and white Catholics by 13 (51 to 38 percent). This would represent a major change in political direction. In fact, the Democrat is running marginally ahead among white Catholics who attend Church every week.