It's the Substance, Stupid: GOP has Real Policy Differences with Millennials

Aaron Marks of Next Gen GOP wrote a piece this week (currently featured on The Next Right) calling on GOP Chairman Michael Steele to include more young people in the party ranks, and create a GOP equivalent to the DNC Youth Council.

Marks is right to be worried about the lack of outreach to young voters on behalf of the Republican Party. As a new report by the Center for American Progress (pdf), compiled from over a dozen sources, makes clear, failure to do so is political suicide for the GOP:

In 2008, about 55 million Millennials were of voting age and roughly 48 million were citizen-eligible voters. Between now and 2018, Millennials of voting age will increase in number by about 4 and a half million each year. And in 2020, the first presidential election where all Millennials will have reached voting age, this generation will be 103 million strong, of which about 90 million will be eligible voters. Those 90 million Millennial eligible voters will represent just under 40 percent of America’s eligible voters.

These trends mean that every election until 2020 will see a bigger share of Millennial voters both because more of them will be eligible to vote and because the leading edge of the Millennials will be aging into higher turnout years. Thus, in 2012, there will be 74 million Millennials of voting age and 64 million Millennial eligible voters, accounting for 29 percent of all eligible voters. Assuming that Millennials’ relatively good turnout performance continues (but not that it gets any better), that should translate into roughly 35 million Millennials who cast ballots in 2012 and an estimated 26 percent of all voters.

By 2016, there will be 93 million Millennials of voting age and 81 million Millennial eligible voters—accounting for 36 percent of all eligible voters. This should produce an estimated 46 million voting Millennials, representing 33 percent of all voters. And in 2020, those 90 million Millennial eligible voters should translate into 52 million Millennial votes, representing 36 percent of all votes cast in that election.

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Obama’s support among 18- to 29-year-old Millennials was remarkably broad, extending across racial barriers. He carried not just Hispanic 18- to 29-year-olds (76-19) and black 18- to 29-year-olds (95-4), but also white 18- to 29-year-olds (54-44). Obama’s 10-point advantage among white 18- to 29-year-olds contrasted starkly with his 15-point deficit among older whites and, compared to 2004, represented a 21-point shift toward progressives among this group.

Not only did Obama win white Millennials overall, but he also won both white Millennial college graduate and noncollege voters (by 16 and 6 points respectively9). Some may question the significance of the latter finding since the 18- to 29-year-old noncollege white group contains a considerable proportion of students and is therefore a flawed representation of the young white working class. However, if analysis is confined to 25-to 29-year-olds to eliminate the problem of mixing students on track for a four-year degree with other white noncollege youth, the results are even stronger. Obama won 25-to 29-year-old white noncollege voters by 12 points, 54-42, a stunning 40-point swing relative to Kerry’s 35-63 drubbing among the same group in 2004.

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Millennials’ voting inclinations—hugely important in this election—could become even more so over time. If Millennials remain oriented as they are and maintain the generational consistency they have shown so far, the simple process of generational replacement—more Millennials moving into the electorate and taking the place of older voters—could increase progressives’ margin over conservatives by an additional two and a half percentage points in 2012 and then by another two and a half points in 2016. It appears that the Millennial generation’s progressive impact on voting may not yet have reached its peak.

With numbers like those, the GOP could well be a permanent rump party by the end of the next decade.

Facing such a daunting challenge, I applaud the efforts of Marks and other young Republicans to pressure the GOP to become a more youth-inclusive party. And despite my personal partisanship, I think it would be a great day for our democracy to see both the Democrats and Republicans competing fiercely for the loyalties of young voters. However, the GOP's problems with Millennials go far deeper than the lack of outreach lamented by Marks, or even "branding" problems often quoted by young Republicans like Meghan McCain. There are real, substantive policy differences between the GOP in Millennials.

To paraphrase, it's the substance, stupid.

On almost every single issue, the values and policy positions of Millennials are often directly in opposition to some of the major planks of the Republican Party platform. Here are just two of the most glaring examples:

The Culture War is Dead:

Increased religious diversity, particularly the rise of seculars, is leading Millennials toward a more tolerant, less culturally divisive politics. In the PSP youth survey, 64 percent agreed that “religious faith should focus more on promoting tolerance, social justice, and peace in society, and less on opposing abortion or gay rights.” Just 19 percent disagreed. And, by 54 to 29 percent, Millennials endorsed the idea that, “Our country has gone too far in mixing politics and religion and forcing religious values on people.”

These sentiments suggest that even where Millennials’ views are not noticeably more progressive than older generations—abortion is the chief example—they are unlikely to be attracted to culture wars-style politics. This is particularly true of Hispanics, whose overall cultural outlook—despite conservative views on some specific issues such as abortion— is more progressive than generally supposed. Indeed, in the PSP youth survey, Hispanic Millennials actually had the highest average score of all racial groups on a 10-item progressive cultural index. Hispanics are also much less likely than whites to vote on the basis of cultural issues, even where they do hold conservative views.

An Affirmative Role for Government:

Millennials, more so than other generations, support a stronger role for government, whether to make the economy work better, help those in need, provide more services, or just do more. When asked in the 2008 National Election Survey—a long-running academic survey of political attitudes conducted by the University of Michigan—whether the government should provide more or fewer services, nearly two-thirds (66 percent) of Millennials supported increased government services, compared to 55 percent of 30- to 59-year-olds and 46 percent of respondents over 60 years of age. Millennials also came out strongly in support of more government when asked to choose between two alternatives: “the less government the better” or “there are more things that government should be doing.” Nearly three-quarters (74 percent) of Millennial voters in 2008 supported the latter assertion that there is more that government should be doing, compared to 69 percent of 30- to 59-year-olds and 58 percent of people over 60 years of age.

Millennials decisively reject the conservative viewpoint that government is the problem and that free markets always produce the best results for society. Instead they support a more balanced approach to the economy. When asked in the 2008 NES whether we need a strong government to handle today’s complex economic problems or whether the free market can handle these problems without government involvement, Millennials, by a margin of 78 to 22 percent, demonstrated an overwhelming preference for strong government. Both 30- to 59-year-olds (75 percent) and respondents over the age of 60 (66 percent) also favor strong government over a strict free market approach, but not at such a high level.

These are just two among the dozens of examples listed in the CAP report. On issue after issue - health care reform, energy/climate change, labor unions - Millinnials hold views that are vastly more progressive than those of previous generations, and are often in direct opposition to those currently championed by the Republican Party.

Outreach and better branding can only get you so far. Truly engaging more than a fraction of Millennials in the Republican Party will require nothing less than a complete rethinking of what it means to be a conservative and a Republican. Is the GOP really ready for that? I don't think so.