In Search of a Feedback Loop: Grading the MTV/MySpace Dialogue

After a few technical glitches, the MTV/MySpace candidate dialogue series kicked off today, streamed live from the University of New Hampshire, where Sentator John Edwards was grilled by college students, and held accountable for his answers by online viewers who voted their approval or disapproval of senator's answers in real time.

Billed as a new way to empower (young) voters, partners MTV and MySpace promised to deliver a new format that would allow for more participation on the part of the viewing audience, as well as a dose of accountability for politicians who frequently use these forums to deliver talking points rather than answer the public's questions. In practice, the event was a large step in that direction, though somewhat less than it could have been.

Scheduled to start at noon, the live stream started at least 15 minutes late, and numerous glitches prevented some users - myself included - from fully participating. Viewing the stream on both the MTV and MySpace site twice crashed my Firefox browser, forcing me to use Safari (and miss about 5 minutes of the forum), and Mac users like myself were locked out of the instant message portion of the event, limiting our ability to access some of the more participatory elements of the event.

Despite that, the Flektor widget that allowed users to rate Senator Edwards' responses in real time was a joy. The widget provided up-to-the-second information about how the Senator's remarks were playing among the crowd, and provided instant focusing group data on the Senator's issue positions among a highly engaged portion of the youth electorate.

The campaign must surely be happy with the results. Senator Edwards remarks frequently netted approval ratings in the high 70s and 80s, and by the end of the forum, 90% of the audience thought the Senator had provided good ideas on the many policy issues raised. Preliminary evidence from Flektor shows that over 32,000 people have viewed the widget, though Jeff Berman, Senior Vice President for Communications and Public Affairs at MySpace.com, said that official figures on participation levels would be released within the next 24 hours.

Whether or not Senator Edwards receives a bump in the polls from this highly rated performance remains to be seen. Will high approval ratings translate into new votes for the Senator, or will Senators Obama and Clinton garner similar ratings, indicating broad support among the audience for specific types of policy solutions, but not necessarily support for any given candidate? It begs the question of as to whether or not implementing such polling devices during regular debates might be a more useful tool for gaging the mind of the electorate.

Edwards' high approval ratings - and the consistent disapproval he received from a small percentage of the audience - raise other questions as well. 90% approval for what might be termed "liberal" or "progressive" policy ideas is above and beyond the most optimistic polls, which typically show youth support for Democratic ideas over Republican ideas to be at most 60-70% (pdf). Was the audience mainly composed of voters who were predisposed to like Edwards proposals? And what is the likelihood that supporters or opponents could Freep the results in future townhalls?

While the insta-polling provided viewers with a much broader perspective of the significance of Edwards answers, and established a proof of concept for an exciting and more participatory way for voters to interact with the candidates on issues, the event failed to realize the full potential of the format it is pioneering. This was probably unavoidable during this first attempt, and due in equal parts to the human moderation of the questions and the fact that an astounding number professed the highest degree of support for the Senator's positions.

In the context of a debate or townhall, the real value in insta-polling viewers opinions is two fold: to create a feedback loop that can inform questions from the audience or moderator, and to hold accountable politicians who try to dodge a question, play down unpopular positions, or steer the discussion towards predetermined talking points. Since an overwhelming portion of today's viewers agreed with Senator Edwards and indicated that he satisfactorily answered their questions, it never became necessary for moderator Chris Cillizza to hold his feet to the fire over an answer, leaving one of the great potentials of this format untapped (which is not necessarily a bad thing - no one wants politicians lying or obfuscating their responses).

In regards to the creation of a positive feedback loop, the MTV/MySpace dialogue did not seem equipped to take full advantage of the direct connection they established between the audience, the moderators, and the candidate. All the questions on which the audience voted were determined in advance, and it was not possible for viewers to adjust their vote as the candidate clarified his responses or addressed follow-up questions. In addition, while there were topical questions provided by viewers at home via IM, as well as follow-ups by Chris Cillizza, very few of these seemed to be drawn directly from the voting results or in response to remarks from the Senator. Instead of a well oiled machine taking inputs from a variety of sources - townhall members, voting data, IM submissions - and using them to inform one another and act as the driver of the conversation, what MTV and MySpace provided was an informative aggregator of all of these data sources from which viewers could draw their own conclusions.

It is possible that future iternations of the candidate dialogues will evolve to address this question and create an even more dynamic relationship between viewer, candidate and moderator. In a conversation following the event, Jeff Berman noted that MySpace would "take input from users and other people and tweak [the format] more. . . we dont' have a patent on the perfect way of doing it, and after every one of these events we will do a critical analysis to see how we can do it better next time. This is about empowering people in a way that has never happened before."

I'd say that Berman and his team are off to a great start, and I'm looking forward to seeing how they upgrade this in the future. Whatever its faults, today's forum was far more informative than any of the candidate debates we've seen thus far, and a model for all candidate forums from here on out.

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Feedback & Participation Yes, Accountability No

This discussion format is a great way to scale a dial meter focus group to national levels, giving the candidate, campaign, and moderator instant feedback on the broad strengths and weaknesses of its messaging... as perceived by a homogeneous group of supporters. If combined with audience input on question selection I agree that it does make good progress on the participation front. I think it corresponds in many ways to something like Rudy's house party virtual webcast.

Is it ever going to serve as an effective accountability mechanism? I believe that it won't.

1. The people who opt-in to these online events are more liberal, affluent, educated, tech-savvy, etc. than the average person. They are not representative of reality.

2. In the case of a 1 on 1 interviewer, the audience who tunes in will be hugely biased to current supporters of the candidate - they are the ones who have the most incentive to watch. They are also the ones that the campaign is most able to persuade to watch the event. For example, in this instance the Edwards campaign sent a text message to its supporters an hour before the event.

3. Most importantly, it's very difficult to evaluate the accuracy of a candidate's policy or political statements, particularly in real-time. True accountability is inherently not something that can be done via instant mass input if 99% of what candidates say has been rehearsed & reiterated hundreds of times, tested in focus groups, and tweaked over the previous months. Outside of gaffes, which are only important because of the attention the media places on them, candidate statements for these events will be polished to a shine that takes a lot of time and experience to properly verify.

If you poll X people, instantly or otherwise, and ask if they a) support tax cuts, and b) support deficit reduction, you'll get plenty of support for them. When a candidate proposes this combination the policy conflict simply isn't isn't going to show up on the dial meters. The sophistication of campaigns relative to the general public allows a wide range of issues to be transformed via framing into messages that elicit strong support independent of the underlying issue.

True accountability is due to the actions of individual experts that can then be sent through the media echo chamber to the general public. It takes informed, aggressive interviewers, comprehensive & rigorous news articles, and fact-checking by independent groups.

Now that I think about it, if you could disaggregate the results into specific expertise or niche audience, then you might start approaching an accountability mechanism. Poll the environmentalists on the environmental questions, the economists on the fiscal questions, the voter mobilization groups on the civic engagement questions, etc. That would be a real "wisdom of the crowds" type of application.

Accountability, Scale, Evolution

Chris,

All good points but I"m going to disagree for the most part. I think you are taking too narrow a view of the possibilities here and disregarding the fact that this process will likely evolve and be adapted to formats other than the 1 on 1 dialogue.

First, with regard to Giuliani - while I agree with your general point about the "dial meter," but Giuliani's house parties lack an elemetn that is present in these dialogues. With Giuliani's event, the parties are connected to the candidate but isolated from each other. The flow of information is only one way, and people aren't getting a feel for the mindset of the whole network.

I'm not sure what to think about your first point, which seems to address digital divide issues. I don't make claims that the voting represents the diversity of the actual electorate, but that seems to be a separate (but still important) issue. In and of itself does not mean these forums can't create accountability for the candidates. If someone is obfuscating or dodging, you don't need a balanced electorate to call them out on it.

I think you are right about the opt-in nature of these events, particularly for 1 on 1 dialogues, but I also see an organizing opportunity here for the candidates. If Barack really does direct the action of tens of thousands of youth activists, it doesn't seem like a monumental task to ask them to "put Hillary to the fire" by participating in these dialogues via voting and question submission. In so much as it could alter the "youth narrative" of the race, I think it's a worthwhile task for the candidates. Ditto for when Republicans go up on the block. All the Democratic candidates have a reason to make sure the GOP faces tough questions on issues like Immigration, Health Care, and Iraq, and it's in their interest to make sure the voting accurately reflects the values of the youth electorate on those issues.

If I were running the youth operations of any of these campaigns, I'd be looking at these dialogues as an organizing opportunity just as much as an outreach opportunity.

That said, I think that yesterday's success gives great incentive to bring this type of snap polling into the more traditional multi-candidate debates. In a more comparative setting I think you will get voting that more accurately reflects the beliefs of the electorate and you could generate more of those "accountability moments."

On the meaning and value of those moments: I'm not looking for perfect, scientifically verifiable accountability. I don't want the perfect to be the enemy of the good. I'm just looking for something better than the system we already have, and it seems to me that the feedback loop I described would force the candidates to really drill down and clarify their positions and make for a more informed electorate. As I stated, I view this in part to be the job of the moderator. People asking follow-up questions via IM may not know the details of Hillary's health care plan, but someone like Chris Cillizza, who covers the election full time, should. It's his duty to bring expertise into the debate to augment what's happening with the voting and IMing.

1 Million Against Hillary

Chris,

Just to add another example, what if the folks behind the 1 Million Strong Against Hillary Facebook group decided to move over to MySpace when it was Clinton's turn in the hot seat?