Rock the Caucus

There are only 67 days left until the Iowa Caucus, and one of the big questions is how young voters fill figure into the caucus. Will they participate so close to the New Year, or will winter vacation prove the perfect time for an increased turnout? Will they caucus at home, scattered across the state, or in their university towns? One of the questions not being asked is "will they know what to do when they get to the caucus?"

The Iowa Caucus isn't like voting in a primary. You can't just go and flip a switch and be done with it. The caucus lasts for hours, and frequently you need to know not only who you support, but how the caucus divvies up delegates and what to do when a candidate is declared nonviable. You need to know how to politick and capture people's second votes, and you need to have a game plan if your candidate is one of those knocked out of the running.

Campaigns are well aware of this (especially after watching Dean's supporters fail to adequately politick for people's second choice on CSPAN in 2004), and most are likely gearing up to not only turn people out to the caucuses, but to train them on how to squeeze the most delegates out of each caucus. But campaigns aren't the only ones who will be vying to turn young Iowans into savvy caucus-goers. Rock the Vote is teaming up with the Iowa PIRG and the New Voters Project to teach young Iowans the ABCs of caucusing, and to drive up turnout among young participants.

Dubbed Rock the Caucus, the program has two main components. First, Rock the vote is partnering with the Secretary of State's office and local high schools to hold mock caucus trainings and secure pledges from high-schoolers who will be 18 by election day to attend the January 3rd caucus. On 2 and 4 year college campuses, the Iowa Student PIRG will recruit "caucus rock stars" who will pledge to get 20 of their peers to attend the caucus. In all, they are looking to recruit 250 such people to pull an additional 5000 young voters into the caucus. In addition, both organizations will be calling people on election day to remind them to turnout to the caucus, as well as employing (and testing) a variety of experimental GOTV strategies such as using MySpace and Facebook to remind people to attend their caucus.

How effective will they be?

The Iowa Student PIRGs/New Voters Project reports that in precincts they targeted in 2004 (in the general election), turnout increased by an average of 13%. That's really good, and it will be great work if they can bring that to the Caucuses. 5000 Caucus goers represents about 4% of the total number of caucus goers in 2004. That's not a bad turnout for one organization focused on one particular portion of the electorate (college youth). I'm skeptical of the use of pledges, though I was able to dig up a study suggesting that they are good for boosting turnout among those contacted by an additional 2% (pdf) when used in conjuntion with a canvass, a phone call, or some other means of GOTV.

Rock the Vote isn't putting numbered goals to their work, but I'm happy to see that they are actually coming out with a field strategy. The campaign still feels tragically unhip, and I'm not seeing Rock the Vote taking steps towards recouping it's old position at the cultural cutting edge, but the fact that they will have bodies on the ground working on GOTV bodes well that the organization will be more than a broadcast media campaign and online registration engine come the general election.

My gut says that these are not going to be as effective as trainings held by the campaigns. Many of top tier are likely to intensely train their followers on the intricacies of the caucus, and that training will likely include not only the basics, but also elements of strategy. The campaigns know who is likely to be nonviable after the first round of voting, as they likely know whose voters are likely to support them in the second or third round of voting. They know where they are strong and where they need to pick up support. That sort of knowledge and level of strategy isn't something that can be conveyed during a non-partisan training session, and those who are trained by the campaigns are much more likely to take on leadership and controlling positions within the caucus.

But than again, that's not really the purpose of Rock the Caucus. Campaigns are going to pick up the inspired and the hard core activists to attend their trainings. What Rock the Caucus is doing is more for the uninitiated, the undecided, and perhaps even the apolitical. It's a stepping stone and guide for those who aren't yet at the level of involvement where they are in contact with a campaign of their own volition. In that sense, it's not about a zero sum game of whose outreach is better, it's about complementing the work going on already. Rock the Caucus is probably a good fit for those who are not enmeshed into the campaign cycle already.