Cell Phones Finally "Becoming a Problem" for Pollsters

The New York Times ran an interesting piece this weekend on the challenge that pollsters face from the growing use of cell phones as the primary phone line for many Americans. As I reported just a few weeks ago, this has long been one of the greatest challenges in polling young voters, and is often the reason that large swaths of the youth electorate have been left unpolled.

For years, though, no one really cared. As The Times article notes, until recently, cellphone-only users tended to lean young, Hispanic, male, and urban - aka "unlikely voters." So most pollsters have ignored the problem:

The issue came up in 2004, but cellphone-only households in 2003 were 3 percent of the total. They now run 16 percent, according to Mediamark Research.

The F.C.C. estimates that more than 60 percent of households have at least one mobile phone.

The demographic groups that tend to be cellphone-only households are also historically less likely to vote, reducing the effects of underrepresentation in pre-election polls.

According to data from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention’s National Health Interview Survey, adults with cellphones and no land lines are more likely to be young — half of exclusively wireless users are younger than 30 — male, Hispanic, living in poverty, renting a residence and living in metropolitan regions.

As that increase in cell-only users continues, this is becoming a problem for the rest of the electorate, and pollsters are finally starting to take notice:

“If the percentage of adults living in cell-only households continues to grow at the rate it has been growing for the past four years, I have projected that it will exceed 25 percent by the end of 2008,” Stephen J. Blumberg, a senior scientist at the National Center for Health Statistics, wrote in an e-mail message.

The American Association for Public Opinion Research has been examining the question and formed a group to study it. The association says it will issue its report early next year.

Paul J. Lavrakas, a survey methodologist and a former professor at Northwestern and Ohio State, has been a driving force behind the research at the association. Mr. Lavrakas said that he could not “imagine how anyone can feel safe in planning their election coverage without including cellphone sampling for the 2008 election.”

This is good to see, and really is one facet of a growing movement to make the polling process more inclusive, transparent, and accurate. It's ridiculous that no one cared about this when it only affected young and poor people, but it's nice that steps are finally being taken to make sure that polls are inclusive of all demographics.