Remember That Young Obama Voters Liked Hope and Change

Ezra Klein riffs off a new book released by James Monrone and David Blumenthal on health care. I agree with both him and the authors that in 2010, Democrats need to focus on the voters on the progressive base. First, some backfill with Klein quoting Monroe on the topic of the 1994 midterm turnout:

Go back and look at the midterm tsunami that swept the Democrats out of office the last time. The turnout for that wave was just 36 percent. Moderate, fence sitting independents don't vote in midterm elections with a 36 percent turn out.

What really happened back in 1994? The Republican base — jubilant, mobilized and angry — turned out. The Democratic base — dispirited, disenchanted and demobilized — stayed home. As Democrats ponder which way to go in this latest round, they ought to read the political lessons more carefully: Short-term
electoral success rests with the base, the people who got excited about "change we can believe in." Long-term electoral success rests in designing and pushing through a program that then grows very popular.

And now Klein's analysis (emphasis mine):

That's well-phrased: The political danger is not just that a failure on health-care reform will anger the electorate. It will also change the composition of the electorate. Dispirited Democrats will stay home. Energized Republicans will press their advantage. Add in that the wave of young voters who were energized by Obama's campaign probably aren't going to turn out for the midterm election anyway, and you're looking at a pretty unfriendly landscape.

Young voter turnout, was one point lower in 2006 than in 1994, but the fact to really care about is that 2006 was actually an increase in midterm participation. First. Time. Ever. Ezra Klein is no slouch; this guy knows his wonk material. But bringing the negativity to a demographic that really liked the "Change" and "Hope" slogans is counterproductive and a poor strategy. That is, unless throwing in the towel is your thing. In a large part, this blog and the book Mike wrote are dedicatd to the yes we can philosophy. Not for Obama, but for the future of Millennials and our own capacity to take control of our political destiny.

Klein might have missed the analysis by Stu Rothenberg, which Mike blogged about last month, that basically calls for "Democrats to maintain the interest of the youth vote and African Americans." (The constituents who brought the excitement, energy and the votes to the Obama campaign.)

This sounds familiar, doesn't it? That's because it is the exact same analysis produced by Obama/DNC Pollster Cornell Belcher as a sort of "exit interview" on Howard Dean's tenure at the DNC.

Rothenberg goes on to point out that young voter turnout tends to drop precipitously during midterm elections (which is true), however he fails to note that 2006 was the first midterm election in decades in which youth turnout increased, and that young voters swung critical races including the Montana and Virginia Senate races (pdf).

Even party leaders like Chris Van Hollen have talked about the importance of young voters.

So, there's a lot of talk about the youth vote in 2010. What Ezra Klein probably also knows, and perhaps why he so easily slights the youth vote, is that he may know that the DCCC isn't doing youth outreach. Remember that youth turnout went up by three percentage points from 2002 to 2006; that's massive, and there's room for growth. Youth groups can't be the only ones doing field work; their budgets aren't what they used to be. The DCCC needs to step it up and put their money where their mouth is, because that is the path to victory in 2010. Youth outreach today is about winning in 2010 and the future. We'd much rather see our future majority sooner rather than later.