Open Thread for Iowa Caucus-Goers and Youth Organizers
Update II: CNN is calling it for Obama, and from all accounts he looks to have ridden a pretty big youth wave to victory. More soon.
Update: Permanently bumped to the top until tomorrow. New content below.
If you are a youth organizer on the ground in Iowa, or a young Iowan attending a caucus, use this open thread as a place to post comments, report on your work/caucus, and share information.
This thread will be bumped up occasionally throughout the night as it gets pushed down.
2008 Youth Vote in Context
The following charts and graphs are meant to contextualize the unique role that young voters played in the 2008 election, and their increasingly important role in a winning electoral coalition:
2008 Youth Electoral Map

2004 Youth Electoral Map

Youth Vote Partisan Advantage: 2000 - 2008

Youth Vote Historical Support: 1976 - 2008

Breaking News
Political Wire:
Wisconsin Poll Shows Tight Recall RaceA new a href="http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/the-fix/post/wisconsin-democrats-say-polling-shows-a-dead-heat/2012/05/22/gIQAWKediU_blog.html"Greenberg Quinlan Rosner (D) poll/a in Wisconsin shows ...Think Progress:
Romney Aide Calls Ad Starring Workers Fired By Romney ‘Performance Art Gibberish’Romney Aide Stuart Stevens (Left)President Obama’s campaign and the Democratically-aligned SuperPAC Priorities USA have begun airing separate ads featuring former employees who were laid off ...Think Progress:
FBI Probing Questionable Donations To Two Ohio RepublicansRep. Jim Renacci (R-OH)The Federal Bureau of Investigations is looking into a series of contributions by employees of the Canton, Ohio-based Suarez Corporation to Ohio Treasurer Josh Mandel (R) and ...The Plum Line:
Jonathan Bernstein: The primaries that matter todayBarack Obama might embarrass himself tonight. Well, not embarrass himself as much as be embarrassed by the Arkansas presidential primary results. See, the president isn’t very popular in that state ...Think Progress:
‘Young Black Thugs’ Need To Be ‘Put Down Like The Dogs They Are,’ Says Louisiana School PsychologistMark Traina, a school psychologist in Louisiana, has been using his twitter account to spew racially-charged accusations about “young black thugs,” and now the Southern Poverty Law Center ...
Featured Video
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from grinnell
Tony Cani with YDA, Amber Goodwin and Paul Tran, volunteers with Young Voter PAC are at Grinnell College...here is what they say so far and here is where you can read his live blog...
6:29pm: We are in a multi-purpose room that almost looks like a middle school gym/auditorium that is on campus. A huge portion of the young people here are students, but it would be wrong to say (at this point) that I know they are a majority. The buzz in the room is definately for Obama - but less so than it was back in the PEC where the Grinnell students are sleeping tonight.
http://www.yda.org/blog/252/live-blogging-for-real-from-the-iowa-caucuses
entrance polls
CBS is reporting:
Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama are battling for the lead in the Iowa Democratic caucuses, according to entrance polls. Visit CBSNews.com for up-to-the-minute coverage.
results at 7:17pm
Clinton : 37.29%
Edwards : 36.98%
Obama : 23.79%
Richardson : 1.94%
Precincts Reporting: 8/1781
SDEs Reporting: 3.26/2500
7:25 update
Edwards : 37.04%
Clinton : 31.44%
Obama : 28.12%
Richardson : 2.21%
Dodd : 0.64%
Biden : 0.55%
Precincts Reporting: 53/1781
SDEs Reporting: 33.47/2500
From west des moines one
Its a mixed crowd, over half are under 35...most are young profs. There are 263 more people than in 2004.
Precinct 6
Coralville...750 people there, 250 more than 2004 which sets a new record. Alot of young people there caucusing for obama
IOWA CITY 05
There are 135 college caucus goers!
After 1st round...
obama 80
Hillary 11
Edwards 22
Biden 9
Richardson 8
Kucinch 2
Dodd 0
Gravel 0
CNN: Obama youth vote 5-1 over Hillary? 25% of all caucus goers?
CNN just reported that young voters are in fact showing up - perhaps 25% of all caucus-goers, which would be a higher share of the electorate than young people actually comprise (22% of the population).
That would be huge - better than expectations - and if true would probably put to rest a lot of my fears about the media disparaging youth turnout (regardless of whether or not Obama actually pulls out a win).
MSNBC: 57% of Obama support is young voters
Over at MyDD, Jonathan Singer adds to my post that MSNBC is reporting young voters as 57% of Obama's support (via entrance poll estimates).
8:00pm results
Obama : 33.20%
Edwards : 32.09%
Clinton : 31.77%
Richardson : 1.79%
Biden : 1.02%
Dodd : 0.07%
Uncommitted : 0.05%
Precincts Reporting: 630/1781
SDEs Reporting: 644.49/2500
8:15 results
Obama : 34.69%
Edwards : 31.52%
Clinton : 31.00%
Richardson : 1.69%
Biden : 1.03%
Dodd : 0.04%
Uncommitted : 0.03%
Precincts Reporting: 1057/1781
SDEs Reporting: 1225.33/2500
obama wins
The message is—you target young people, they vote. You believe in them and they will believe you.