Youth Vote in Iowa Triples: Young Voters Prove the Naysayers Wrong
Update: CIRCLE has continued crunching numbers and they are now saying (pdf) that actual youth turnout was 13%, not 11%. So it more than tripled.
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Some more cogent thoughts now that the heat of the moment has passed and some numbers have been crunched.
Barack Obama may be riding the momentum of a caucus win into New Hampshire, but the real winner in tonight's Iowa caucus was young voters.
It's been a long and rocky road for young voters - in the media and in the party. For four years, the media has declared (incorrectly) that young voters were the downfall of Howard Dean, whose over-reliance on an "unreliable demographic" ushered in his defeat in the 2004 caucus. This, despite the fact that youth turnout at the caucus increased that year. For the last year, we've heard how Obama's strategy was foolhardy, and even from the campaign we heard that the youth vote would be "icing on the cake."
It turns out, it was the cake.
According to estimates by CIRCLE (pdf) youth vote turnout at the caucus tripled tonight, rising from 4% to 11%. Within the Democratic caucus, over 46,000 young people participated, and young voters comprised 22% of all Democratic caucus-goers. According to entrance polls by CNN, 57% of those 17-29 year old caucus goers stood up to caucus for Barack Obama. Tonight, they drove his campaign to victory.
The numbers themselves were larger than expected, especially considering the early caucus date during winter break for most colleges. But no one who has been paying attention to young voters in the past four years should be surprised that young Iowans played such a significant role in tonight's caucus. These are not isolated incidents. In 2004, youth participation in the Iowa Caucus quadrupled. In the 2004 general election, youth turnout saw the largest increase in over a decade. Turnout was also up in 2006 (pdf). Tonight's caucus turnout was part of a four year trend in young voter turnout.
Tonight was also a victory for the Democratic Party. Participation in the caucus almost doubled. 212,000 Democratic voters turning out compared to 125,000 in 2004. About 46,000 of those caucus-goers were young voters. Compare that to the Republicans: CIRCLE (pdf) reports that only 10,000 young people participated in the Republican caucus, just 10% of all Republican caucus-goers. This too is a trend. In 2004, young voters broke in favor of John Kerry over President Bush 554 - 45%. In 2006, young voters chose Democratic candidates 60% - 38%, increasing a growing trend towards favoring progressive candidates.
Young voters are increasingly moving in the direction of Democrats, and tonight, the Obama campaign - thanks to a savvy youth operation that reached out on Facebook and MySpace, at high schools and on college campuses - was able to capitalize on that to attain victory. His win confirms what many have been saying for years now: young people will vote if you pay attention to the, speak to their issues, and reach out. New technologies can certainly help make that initial connection, yet it's still good old fashioned face to face politicking - peer to peer organizing - that makes the difference. Years ago, when young people began voting Republican during the Reagan Era, Democrats stopped asking young voters to participate. Tonight's victory shows what individual candidates, and the Democratic Party stand to gain by courting today's young voters.
Tonight we saw the the core of a future progressive majority make its presence known in Democratic politics. Young Voters are not a hidden vote or icing on the cake, and after tonight, everyone knows it.
2008 Youth Vote in Context
The following charts and graphs are meant to contextualize the unique role that young voters played in the 2008 election, and their increasingly important role in a winning electoral coalition:
2008 Youth Electoral Map

2004 Youth Electoral Map

Youth Vote Partisan Advantage: 2000 - 2008

Youth Vote Historical Support: 1976 - 2008

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Milennials eclipse gen-x
Obama, should he prevail, would be the first Gen-X president, but he's getting there on the backs of Milennials. 22% of democratic caucusgoers in Iowa were under 30 (compared to 18% in the generation x bracket), and they broke for Barack by a whopping 57%.
The whole generational label thing is fuzzy and questionable, I know, but it's it indeed really exciting to see the things we've all worked for come to fruition.
Tidal Wave! Rrrargh!
Astonishing to me is how rapidly and without reservation the MSM is picking up the youth tidal wave story. Two days ago you get a lot of naysaying about the youth vote and a lot of comparisons to Howard Dean and all that nonsese - and today? Young voters finally come through! It's a New Wave!
You ask me, they're the ones who are fickle and unreliable. The young people in this country have been doing a pretty steady and logical job of stepping up to the plate for several years. A bit of a backwards relationship.
I mean I appreciate how big a deal this is for the movement. I do. I'm just sayin'. Jeez. We've been showing up for ages. Where the hell were those guys?
w00t!
i am so happy... : )
It's great!
Yeah that really made me happy too! I think it's so important that the young voters say what they think and go vote, to show to the older people that we love this country and that it's important to us, but also to show the younger voters that it's important for everyone to go vote! Loved the article, it's great food for though, i really think that there is still hope that our generation will end up changing things :)
Vivi from the cake recipe database.
Let's Keep It Going!
The impressive turn out by youth voters makes for a great precedent for the rest of the election -- and we're only one Caucus into the 2008 Presidential race! Echoing Howard Dean's infamous speech from 2004, the youth voters have to go on to New Hampshire and South Carolina and...well, you get it. Once an under-appreciated demographic, it is promising to see that the media and even the candidates themselves are recognizing the power that this group holds. We can only hope that the youth votes remain as important as they were to Iowa, and as interest in our organization (www.declareyourself.com) and voter registration has increased an enormous amount since July 2007, there does not seem to be a loss of interest in the election by young voters or potential voters.
A coincidence?
A coincidence that Obama and McCain both did an MTV News forum right when they were turning it around? I think not.
;)
- Ocean
DES MOINES — Senator
DES MOINES — Senator Barack Obama of Illinois, a first-term Democratic senator trying to become the nation’s first African-American president, rolled to victory in the Iowa caucuses on Thursday night, lifted by a record turnout of voters who embraced his promise of change.
The victory by Mr. Obama, 46, amounted to a startling setback for Senator Hillary Rodham Clinton, 60, of New York, who just months ago presented herself as the front-runner for the Democratic presidential nomination. The result left uncertain the prospects for John Edwards, a former senator from North Carolina, who had staked his second bid for the White House on winning Iowa.
Mrs. Clinton and Mr. Edwards, who edged her out for second place by less than a percentage point, both vowed to stay in the race.
“They said this day would never come,” Mr. Obama said as he claimed his victory at a packed rally in downtown Des Moines.
On the Republican side, Mike Huckabee, the former governor of Arkansas who was barely a blip on the national scene just two months ago, defeated Mitt Romney, a former Massachusetts governor, delivering a serious setback to Mr. Romney’s high-spending campaign and putting pressure on Mr. Romney to win in New Hampshire next Tuesday.
Mr. Huckabee, a Baptist minister, was carried in large part by evangelical voters, who helped him withstand extensive spending by Mr. Romney on television advertising and a get-out-the-vote effort.
“Tonight we proved that American politics is still in the hands of ordinary folks like you,” said Mr. Huckabee, who ran on a platform that combined economic populism with an appeal to social conservatives.
Mr. Huckabee won with 34.4 percent of the delegate support, after 86 percent of precincts had reported. Mr. Romney had 25.4 percent, former Senator Fred D. Thompson of Tennessee had 13.4 percent and Senator John McCain of Arizona had 13.2 percent.
On the Democratic side, with 100 percent of precincts reporting, Mr. Obama had 37.6 percent of the delegate support, Mr. Edwards 29.8 percent and Mrs. Clinton had 29.5 percent. Gov. Bill Richardson of New Mexico was fourth, at 2.11 percent.
Two Democrats, Senator Joseph R. Biden Jr. of Delaware and Senator Christopher J. Dodd of Connecticut, dropped out of the race after winning only tiny percentages of the vote.
A record number of Democrats turned out to caucus — more than 239,000, compared with fewer than 125,000 in 2004 — producing scenes of overcrowded firehouses and schools and long lines of people waiting to register their preferences.
The images stood as evidence of the success of Mr. Obama’s effort to reach out to thousands of first-time caucusgoers, including many independent voters and younger voters. The huge turn-out — by contrast, 108,000 Republicans caucused on Thursday — demonstrated the extent to which opposition to President Bush has energized Democrats, and served as another warning to Republicans about the problems they face this November in swing states like this.
Mr. Obama’s victory in this overwhelmingly white state was a powerful answer to the question of whether America was prepared to vote for a black person for president. What was remarkable was the extent to which race was not a factor in this contest. Surveys of voters entering the caucuses also indicated that he had won the support of many independents, a development that his aides used to rebut suggestions from rivals that he could not win a general election. In addition, voters clearly rejected the argument that Mr. Obama does not have sufficient experience to take over the White House, a central point pressed by Mrs. Clinton.
Mr. Obama took the stage, smiling broadly and clapping his hands in response to the roar of cheers that greeted him.
“They said this country was too divided, too disillusioned to ever come together around a common purpose,” Mr. Obama said. “But on this January night, at this defining moment in history, you have done what the cynics said we couldn’t do.”
The result sent tremors of apprehension through Mrs. Clinton’s camp, and she promptly turned her attention to New Hampshire, flying there on a plane that left at midnight. Aides said that former President Bill Clinton would go there immediately and spend the next five days campaigning in a state where he has always been strong. Mrs. Clinton, in her concession speech, sought again to embrace the mantle of change that has served Mr. Obama so well, even as she was flanked on the stage by Mr. Clinton, his face frozen in a smile, and Madeleine K. Albright, who was Mr. Clinton’s secretary of state.
“What is most important now is that, as we go on with this contest, that we keep focused on the two big issues, that we answer correctly the questions that each of us has posed,” Mrs. Clinton said. “How will we win in November 2008 by nominating a candidate who will be able to go the distance and who will be the best president on Day One.”
Mr. Edwards in his speech suggested that he had benefited from the same electoral forces that lifted Mr. Obama to victory. “Continue on,” Mr. Edwards shouted at supporters from the stage, his voice sounding hoarse. “Thank you for second place.”
In fact, he drew 29.8 percent of the delegates awarded, to Mrs. Clinton’s 29.4 percent.
Mr. Huckabee declared victory at a boisterous rally in which he rejoiced in his ability to overcome his better-financed opponent, who had spent much of the past year building up for a victory and had hammered Mr. Huckabee with negative advertisements over the past month here.
“We’ve learned that people really are more important then the purse,” he said.
Mr. Romney will now make a stand in New Hampshire, where he has also invested heavily.
“Congratulations on the first round to Mike,” Mr. Romney said on Fox News.
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