Clinton Non-Viable in Iowa Student-Dense Precincts
This is incredible. John Deeth in the Iowa Independent is reporting that in many student dense precincts, Hillary Clinton did not achieve viability - the 15% minimum of support needed to snag at least one delegate in a particular caucus.
Clinton was non-viable in Iowa City's two dorm-dominated precincts, 3 and 5. She was also non-viable in the entire core of downtown Iowa City, including the main student apartment precincts (11, 19 and 20) and in precinct 21, a mixed student-townie precinct so liberal that George W. Bush finished third, behind Ralph Nader, in 2000. Turnout was down from 2004 in the dorm precincts, where residence halls were closed, but was up significantly in the off-campus student precincts.
Hillary Clinton did not make an on-campus University of Iowa stop before the caucuses -- in fact, her only campus event was on July 3 with her husband former President Bill Clinton. Clinton 42 did appear on campus on Dec. 10, at the height of the student caucus flap, and said students should follow their conscience. "Since nobody can really say what's in your mind, it's up to you," Clinton said. "For example, if you show up to work on the campaign and have no connection here, then you shouldn't be able to caucus."
Reports of Clinton non-viability also come from Grinnell Ward 1, where the Clinton group sent supporters to Joe Biden to help him reach viability and prevent Obama from padding his already big delegate margin. Biden was also viable where Clinton was not in Ames Precinct 4-4, centered on the Iowa State campus.
Also interesting that student turnout was in fact down in some student precincts due to the early caucus date. Clinton feared students coming back from out of state to caucus, but it was "native" Iowan youth that did her in.
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Quibble about the Biden Votes ...
I was in Grinnell Ward 1 and did a live blog about the caucus that night. Clinton's people actually did one of three things:
1) They voted on a proposal to go over to Edwards if they were to get (as individuals) two delegates to the county convention. It seems that this vote passed and people went to Edwards.
2) They went to whoever they wanted to go to. I know a bunch of students who were Clinton first, Obama second. I saw many of them go to the Obama group.
3) They went home. A bunch, especially after Obama people accosted their "deal" of two delegates by offering "five" if they came over to them, just decided to go home.
Biden's viability came from combining the Dodd, Richardson, and Biden caucusers.
One thing is sure though - Clinton did not get viability - and in fact had less in the first round than Biden did.
Video of caucus -> HERE
Live Blog -> HERE
Video of students pre-caucus-> HERE