Youth Off-Year Vote - Comparing Apples and Oranges and Campaign Styles

This week Politico published an article discussing the "wane" in student political enthusiasm on American college campuses this off-year cycle. Erika Lovley juxtaposes this lack of excitement for the gubernatorial races in New Jersey and Virginia with the heightened political participation last fall.

Before we get into comparisons, let's acknowledge that youth are going to need to show up in these races if Democrats want to hold on to these offices. Increasingly, youth voters are forming the heart of the Democratic coalition, along with Latinos, African-Americans, and women.

But I have three issues with this analysis.

1.) The comparison is off -- it might as well be comparing apples and oranges. Off-year elections (non-presidential elections, especially non-mid-term elections) are notorious for low turnout. What we should be paying attention to are youth turnout rates for 2005. Both Virginia and New Jersey showed double-digit increases in dense precincts from 2001 to 2005, for example. The big question should be whether or not students and other young voters can build off that increased 2005 rate, or at least maintain it.

2.) Where is the mention of the kind of campaign being run? It's not much different from the health care debate? These campaigns, especially the New Jersey race, are down in the mud, dirty affairs. If we're trying to get youth interested in politics for the sake of public service and other noble-minded ideals, the structure and style of the campaigns being run aren't a great match. And if we do want to compare with Obama's campaign, well, there's not much of a comparison there.

3.) Repeat after me: The increase in the youth vote does not originate with Obama's candidacy. We have tried and tried again to debunk this, but apparently it's just not taking.