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Super Duper Preliminary Youth Numbers (Updated)

Update: So scratch that and call it a tie? Looks like that while Senator Clinton technically won the state, the way delegates are distributed means that Obama will leave Nevada with 13 delegates to the convention to Clinton's 12. Ari Melber at The Nation has the story.
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So Senator Clinton wins Nevada, and it looks like it's on a wave of turnout from older women. According to CNN's exit polling, women were almost a supermajority, outnumbering men at the caucus by 59 - 41%. And this was most definitely an older caucus. 68% of caucus-goers were over 45 years old.

Obama seems to have recouped his losses among young voters after Hillary edged him out in New Hampshire among 25 - 29 year olds. Obama won young voter 59 - 33%. Unfortunately, it didn't matter. This was the worst turnout so far for youth. Voters under 30 made up only 13% of caucus goers even though they are 22% of the eligible voting population.

Clinton cleaned up amongst almost every single demographic except youth, African Americans and independents. I wonder what % of young women and Latinos went to Clinton . . .

Moderating factors: this was Nevada's first caucus, making a strange and intimidating process even more so, and the candidates didn't lavish nearly as much attention on this state as they did Iowa and New Hampshire. Both of these might have played a role in driving down youth turnout. Since this is the first time Nevada is holding a caucus like this, we won't, unfortunately be able to tell if youth turnout went up or down from previous cycles.

I'll have more as CIRCLE crunches the numbers and youth orgs start reporting out from the caucus. This was a disappointment though to be sure.

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January 19th, 2008 6:31pm
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I don't know I feel like

Submitted by Sarah Burris on Sat, 2008-01-19 19:03.

I don't know

I feel like our numbers from previous Nevada elections had really low youth turnout. I am interested to see if there are demographic break down by county. I'd like to see what Clark vs. Washoe is as well as the rurals. I'm also curious what the out of state student break down is in NV schools.

just throwing it out there.

other thing I found interesting is the low union household turnout is. Is just that no one is really in a union in NV, or is it that they didn't vote.

also

Submitted by Sarah Burris on Sat, 2008-01-19 19:05.

one more thing - are these numbers reflective of a potential win for BO in SC? Particularly the unbelievable support among the AA community and young voters and Indy's

Very possible

Submitted by Michael Connery on Sat, 2008-01-19 19:10.

Very possible, but I don't think those numbers are available. So we're guessing in the dark.

Here's what I heard

Submitted by psericks on Sun, 2008-01-20 18:34.

all week from the people I know who were working in Vegas: Sure, UNLV has 30,000 students, but because it's a commuter school, they found it really hard to organize, with students spread out all over the city. Not much of a campus life, less cohesion. Now that could have been made up for, I assume, with more investment in organizing, but maybe they just didn't have the time to do so.

Also, I never looked into whether they're back in session at UNLV. I assume so, but who knows. There are some Iowa schools still on break. (Would be a factor with out of state students.)

And should I be the first to say it? This was a caucus requiring folks to get up at 9 or 9:30 am on a Saturday morning. Not great timing for our generation.