Are Youth going more GOP?
Rachel Hoff of the Weekly Standard posted a gloating piece and was tweeting up a story about her new belief that young voters are now Republicans after the Virginia elections.
"The young people who were the driving force of the Obama campaign stayed home in 2009. Claims that President Obama won a generation of young Americans to the Democratic Party were vastly exaggerated. The power of Obamamania, it seems, was personality politics -- not an actual commitment to the Democratic Party or principles.
Perhaps more amazing and disappointingly under-reported by the media is the fact that 18-29 year olds in Virginia voted for Bob McDonnell over the Democrat 54% to 44%. McDonnell proved that a dynamic candidate with the right ideas, an active youth outreach program, and strategic use of new media technologies, Republican candidates can win the youth vote."
Similarly, Charlie Cook's analysis of Tuesday's election included the following assumption:
"We knew that the young and minority voters who had never cast a ballot before they did for Barack Obama last year were very unlikely to show up at the polls this year or next."
First, while Rachel is right to congratulate McDonnell for his campaign's youth outreach, I hardly think it has anything to do with young voters having gone to the GOP.
Young people prefer progressive ideas, they reject the traditional party structure and tend to identify as more independent. They have much more progressive values. McDonnell's campaign focused on things like infrastructure, energy, and education. He did youth outreach. I don't know if Deeds did, but the consistent narrative around the Deeds campaign was that he wasn't really for anything. The additional narrative I hear is that VA isn't that Democratic.
This doesn't mean young voters have gone GOP, it means that when you put forth the effort to get young voters, you speak to their issues, and you get out the vote you get a good result. Further, when you don't have a strong Democrat at the top of the ticket but you have a strong Republican at the top of the ticket those young Republicans or those young conservative voters turn out. From the numbers I've seen the students at Liberty University could have turned out and made the margin of victory for McDonnell.
To respond to Mr. Cook, I completely understand the misunderstanding. I will say that most of the smartest political operatives know nothing about young voters, its unique to find people who understand how the youth vote works. I know all of the experts and Mr. Cook isn't one of them.
From what I understand about the turnout from the Virginia Election specifically compared to 2009 there was 1/3 of the turnout in 09 compared to 08. Is Mr. Cook really going to say that 2/3 of the Virginia electorate in 2008 was young and minority voters? Really? Come on... In the off season you see a drop off, its normal. When you don't have an inspiring candidate you get an uninspiring result. Sorry Deeds... no offense.
What we saw in 2006 was an uptick in the youth turnout when compared to other midterms. 2004 saw an increase and 2008 even larger than that. If the DCCC and the DSCC wants to see an increase in youth turnout consistent with 2006 they have to work for it. 2006 was a great year that had a consistent message with a Congressional plan that included the needs of the Millennial Generation within its top 10 bills they intended to pass when Democrats won back Congress. If Democrats can continue the same inspiration, provide a reasonable plan for legislation that youth want to see, and do the proper outreach to young people through campaigns you'll get a good turnout.
As Kevin posted Wednesday, amid all of the GOP wins in VA and NJ there were some pretty powerful successes in young elected officials at the municipal level across the country, and some progressive ordinances.
The moral of the story continues to be that young voters will turn out if they are graced with the same outreach as older voters. That is, if you want them to turn out. Progressive candidates can win if they work to engage young voters in their district that connect to progressive issues. As a partisan hack my advice to the other side is to be more conservative and embrace the teabaggers.
2008 Youth Vote in Context
The following charts and graphs are meant to contextualize the unique role that young voters played in the 2008 election, and their increasingly important role in a winning electoral coalition:
2008 Youth Electoral Map

2004 Youth Electoral Map

Youth Vote Partisan Advantage: 2000 - 2008

Youth Vote Historical Support: 1976 - 2008

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Stupak Group Cut in HalfHere's why there is no deal with Rep. Bart Stupak (D-MI): Roll Call reports House Democratic leaders appear to be succeeding in their push to peel off abortion-rights opponents lined up with Stupak ...WireTap:
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Tea Party protesters reportedly spit on one lawmaker, call others ‘faggot’ and the n-word.Today’s Code Red rally appears to be one of the most raucous Tea Party gatherings on Capitol Hill yet. In addition to protesters shouting with rage at federal lawmakers, Sam Stein reports on ...Political Wire:
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