Press Resources: 2008 Youth Vote
Results:
Generation We and the 2008 Election: Generation We and Ruy Teixeira provide a detailed analysis (pdf) of Millennials’ turnout, voting preferences and attitudes in this election, supplemented where appropriate with data from earlier surveys and studies.
Turnout Estimates from CIRCLE: CIRCLE has released estimates on youth turnout. Because precincts are still reporting early and absentee votes, these numbers are instructive but not yet final.
Youth Turnout Advisory: According to CIRCLE, tonight's exit polls will only announce young voter's "share of the electorate." They will not report on hard number of ballots cast or "turnout." Click here for information about what that will mean for your reporting.
Tips for Accurately Reporting Youth Turnout
1. When reporting on youth participation, do not confuse "share of the electorate" with "turnout." Share of the electorate is a measure of the proportion of young voters who cast a ballot in relation to all other voters. Turnout is the percentage of all eligible young voters who cast a ballot. Share measures the influence of young voters within the electorate as a whole. Turnout tells us whether or not more young people showed up at the polls. Please do not confuse them.
2. It is possible for turnout to rise, while share of the electorate remains steady. Indeed, this is exactly what happened in 2004. Young voter turnout (18 - 29) increased by 9 percentage points from 40 to 49% (an increase of about 4.3 million votes). However, young voter's share of the electorate remained steady at 17%.
3. Young voters can only be held accountable for their own actions, not those of the entire electorate. If the youth vote's share of the electorate holds steady from 2004 to 2008, that will mean that older voters also went to the polls in higher numbers. Young voters cannot be held accountable for that. As such, turnout and the hard number of votes are the only accurate measure to gauge the success of efforts to get out young voters.
4. Rising youth turnout is a trend, not a fad tied to the popularity of Senator Obama. Contrary to conventional wisdom, or media reports from 2004, Obama's campaign is not solely responsible for higher youth turnout, though it has played a crucial role during this election cycle. Youth turnout began to rise in 2004, when youth it jumped by 9 percentage points, from 40 to 49%, and 4.3 million more young voters cast a ballot than in 2000. This trend continued in 2006, which saw the first increase in young voter turnout during a midterm election since the 1980s. It reached a new height in early 2008 when youth turnout in the primaries was double that from 2000, the last comparable year. In some states, youth turnout in the primaries was triple or quadruple that of previous years.
5. The margin of victory among young voters may be just as important as the overall increase in youth turnout. In 2004, 20 million young voters cast a ballot, with 54% selecting John Kerry. That gave Kerry an advantage of 1.6 million votes over President Bush among young voters. This year, if 22 million young voters cast ballots and 62% choosing Obama vs. 38% for McCain (numbers roughly found in most polling), that would give Senator Obama an advantage of 5.28 million votes.
6. Youth turnout is about access, not apathy. When young people are registered to vote - they turn out. According to the US Census, 81.6% of all registered young voters actually cast a ballot in 2004. That is on par with other portions of electorate. The more campaigns and independent organizations work to register young voters, and the easier we make the registration process, the higher youth turnout will be.
7. Regardless of youth turnout on Tuesday, young voters have already played a crucial and decisive role in this contest. In the Iowa Democratic caucuses, young voter turnout tripled and their share of caucus-goers was equal to that of the "reliable" 65+ demographic. Obama won the support of 60% of Iowa's youth, catapulting him to the front of the Democratic pack. Similar levels of support from youth in the following primaries and caucuses were the foundation of Obama's primary success.
Speak to Youth Vote Leaders:
To arrange an interview, contact Emily Hawkins at emily.hawkins [at] gmail [dot] com or Andrea Hagelgans at andrea [at] spitfirestrategies [dot] com.
Young Democrats of America: Alexandra Acker, Executive Director – The Young Democrats of America (YDA) is the largest youth-led, national, partisan political organization with more than 150,000 members- including middle school, high school and college students as well as young workers, young professionals and young families - in 46 states.
Young Voter PAC: Jane Fleming Kleeb, Executive Director – Young Voter PAC supports candidates who reach out to young voters and include us as an important part of their campaign strategy. Progressive candidates who mobilize young voters and speak to their issues need our help to do it.
Bus Federation: Jefferson Smith, Founder and Chairman - The Bus Federation, comprised of grassroots youth political organizations in five Western states, draws upon its proven models of youth organizing to activate young progressive voters, develop the next generation of progressive leaders, and mobilize for immediate term electoral impact. During one mass canvass (“the Bus Trips”), Bus Federation volunteers typically knock on 4,000 doors in swing districts, harnessing the power of door-to-door voter contact and leveraging volunteer energy to elect progressive candidates, all while building a sense of community around political volunteerism.
Democrats Work: Thomas Bates, Co-Founder and Executive Director – Democrats Work (DW) is a national organization that connects grassroots Democrats with community service projects. DW seeks to foster the civic participation of Democrats in their communities. In the long term, DW aims to transform our nation’s politics: instead of money, we offer work; instead of message, we offer action. In the end, DW envisions a new type of politics: a politics of service.
Future Majority: Mike Connery, Author, Youth to Power: How Today's Young Voters Are Building Tomorrow's Progressive Majority - Future Majority is a blog dedicated to covering the involvement of young voters in progressive politics and includes original reporting on progressive youth organizing, polling analysis, opinion pieces, and guest blogs by leaders in the progressive youth movement.
The League of Young Voters: Rob 'Biko' Baker, Executive Director - The League of Young Voters empowers young people nationwide to participate in the democratic process and create progressive political change on the local, state and national level – with a focus on non-college youth and youth from low-income communities and communities of color.
SAVE: Matthew Segal, Executive Director - Student Association for Voter Empowerment (SAVE) is a national non-profit organization, founded and run by students, with a mission to increase youth voter turnout by removing access barriers and promoting stronger civic education. By encouraging civic awareness and political dialogue on over 30 college campuses throughout the country, SAVE's programs are planting a seed of interest that will continue to drive interest in the working of American government, civic participation on all levels, and the proper accountability of elected officials. matthew [dot] segal [at] savevoting [dot] org
2008 Youth Vote in Context
The following charts and graphs are meant to contextualize the unique role that young voters played in the 2008 election, and their increasingly important role in a winning electoral coalition:
2008 Youth Electoral Map
2004 Youth Electoral Map
Youth Vote Partisan Advantage: 2000 - 2008
Youth Vote Historical Support: 1976 - 2008
Fact Sheets and Polls
Youth Turnout Advisory:
Exit Polls to Show Only Youth Share of Voters - Full Turnout Information Will Be Available Wednesday Nov 5th.
Fact Sheets:
Young Voters: 2004 - 2008 - CIRCLE
The Youth Vote: 1972 - 2004 - CIRCLE
2004 Youth Vote in the States - CIRCLE
Voter Engagement Among Minority Youth - CIRCLE
Recent Polling:
Democracy Corps - October 31st, 2008
Harvard Institute of Politics - Fall 2008 Survey
Rock the Vote - September 2008
Quick Facts About the Youth Vote
Are young people registered?
Across the country, millions of young voters were added to the voter rolls in 2008. In critical states like Virginia, Nevada and Ohio, young voters (18 - 29) account for between 40 and 50% of all new voter registrations. The high registration rate is critical since in 2004, 81% of all registered young people voted.
Will young voters actually turnout?
Turnout in recent elections tells us yes. Youth turnout (18 - 29) jumped 9 percentage points in 2004. In 2006 young people once again voted in greater numbers, and in 2008, 6.5 million young people cast ballots in the primaries. Youth turnout in the primaries doubled nationally, and in some states, youth turnout tripled and quadrupled turnout from recent primary elections.
Why does it matter if they turnout?
Young voters - 44 million strong - make up 22% of the eligible electorate and they are overwhelmingly Democratic. In 2006, young voters picked Democrats over Republicans by 22 percentage points and helped tip key races in Virginia and Montana. All of the polls indicate roughly 60% of young people prefer Obama over McCain. With the increased registration and increased turnout patterns over the past two elections, not only are young voters poised to swing the election in favor of Obama but they have the potential to swing down ballot races for Democrats all across the country.
For young voters this election is about the issues and the stakes have never been higher.
Young people are voting in record numbers because they care about the issues. 60% of young people think the country is on the wrong track and the economy is more than 10 times more important to them than it was a year ago, with 53% citing the economy as their number one reason for voting.
Young voters are informed on the issues. A Medill School of journalism poll in August 2008 found that almost 60% of young people surveyed say they follow news about the presidential campaign either fairly or very closely. Almost half say they go online at least once a week for news about the elections (49%), politics (44%) and political candidates (44%) – almost as often as for news about entertainment (50%), hobbies (47%), and their school (44%).
Outreach matters, and peer-to-peer is the gold standard. This is the first election in decades in which major party candidates spoke to the issues of young voters and dedicated real resources - in the form of peer-to-peer outreach aimed at America's youth. That's why we are seeing such high levels of engagement this cycle.
In 2004 a number of groups tested various methods of increasing youth voter turnout. Student PIRG's New Voters Project found that in six states where they both registered and contacted young people; the turnout was thirteen percent higher than turnout rates among a group of demographically similar individuals.
Groups like the Student PIRGs, the Bus Federation, Young Democrats, The League of Young Voters and Power Vote will be working together to contact the millions of young people in the weeks and days leading up to Election Day. Meanwhile, organizations like SAVE, Video the Vote, and the Election Protection Coalition (1-866-our-vote) are working tirelessly to address the unique barriers faced by young people in the election process, from registration to voting.
Youth Turnout: 2000 - 2008
