Midterms

Originally posted on MyDD earlier today

Youth turnout is trending up.  At this point, I hope that is a given.  When we talk about those turnout numbers, frequently they are discussed in the context of national turnout or Presidential elections.  But what does it mean at the local level?  How does this play out in a Senate or House race? What about gubernatorial bids and state legislative races?  

In last year's midterms, 58 federal elections, and 80 state level races were decided by easily surmountable or razor thing margins.  Breaking those numbers down, five U.S. Senate and three gubernatorial races were decided by less than 50,000 votes; 35 House races by less than 10,000 votes and 18 by less than 5,000 votes; and 77 state legislative races were decided by fewer than 100 votes.

In almost all of these races, the margin of victory was less than the turnout increase among young voters in that state.  

A combination of three factors drove the increase in turnout: highly competitive races, in which the potential value of a single vote is recognized by formerly disenchanted young voters; non-partisan voter registration efforts aimed at youth; and partisan outreach to young voters by campaigns.  Two of these factors are outside the control of a candidate and his/her campaign.  But the third is something we can study and replicate to help drive progressive youth turnout and increase our majorities in 2008.

A new report by Young Voter Strategies provides a road map to do just that.  The report features a series of case studies on how campaigns- Democrats AND Republicans - reached out to young voters to create victory in '06.  Below the jump I've pulled out and summarized some of the more interesting case studies, and noted some best practices that have emerged - some of which are smack on the head obvious (but still aren't utilized by most campaigns), and others which go against conventional wisdom.  This is required reading for all Democratic campaign staffers.  

Today, we all head to the polls to choose our representatives and hopefully change the direction of our country. One voting block that is sure to play an important - and expanding - role in today's election is young voters.

In 2004, the media completely botched the story about young voter turnout. An article in the AP mistakenly reported young voters share of the electorate instead of the hard turnout numbers. In 2004, youth turnout as a share of the electorate only rose 1-2% points due to an overall turnout increase of 4% among the voting population. Young Voter strategies has more on the difference between share and turnout here. (pdf)

The result of this error was a complete dismissal of youth turnout for months, and a reinforcement in the minds of many politicians and the media that youth remained apathetic. We know that's not true.

The real story, we now know, was that youth turnout increased by 11% over 2000 turnout levels, and that young voters chose Kerry over Bush by a 10 point margin. This was the largest increase since 18 year olds were granted the vote in 1972.(pdf)

To make sure that this little piece of electoral history doesn't repeat itself, I'd like to establish some baseline info about youth turnout - what to look for, and what we can expect today:

CIRCLE issued a press release yesterday announcing the results of its analysis of youth voting trends in midterm election. The results look good for Democrats.

Turnout will probably be up - though not as high as 2004:

The Center for Information and Research on Civic Learning and Engagement (CIRCLE) compiled data on the midterm cycles nationwide -- and by state -- since 1974 to get a sense of what the nation might expect this fall. In the most recent midterm election in 2002, 22 percent of young adults voted. However, the best comparison to this year's election may be the 1994 midterm, because it was the last midterm to follow a similar surge in youth voting. In 1994, 26 percent of 18- to 29-year olds voted. State and national fact sheets can be found at http://www.civicyouth.org.

"The increased mobilization efforts to get young people to the polls in 2004 likely contributed to the spike in young voters. The level of mobilization will be lower this year, but probably at least as high as it was in 2002. All political parties should work to mobilize this large group of potential voters," said Peter Levine, director of CIRCLE. "We did see additional increases in turnout in student-dense precincts in 2005 local and state elections. And we now know from experimental studies that mobilization in one election still motivates people in the next election."

And who will these voters most likely cast their ballots for? (emphasis mine)

As for partisanship among young Americans, in a poll CIRCLE conducted this summer, young people were more likely than adults 30 and older to identify as strictly independents (26 percent vs. 18 percent) and less likely to identify as Republicans (28 percent vs. 35 percent). Compared to 2002, somewhat more young adults are identifying as independents (up 2 points) though slightly fewer identify as Democrats (down 1 point).

Our generation seems to be fleeing the parties altogether in favor of independent status, but we are clearly a demographic in which progressives hold an advantage, and campaigns should be doing their damndest to get to speak to us and get us to the polls. CIRCLE has some solid advice on how to do that - much of which is echoed frequently here on this site. Catch those after the jump.

And check out CIRCLE's excellent research/stats area on young voter turnout and political attitudes.