Texas

Editor's Note: Mike Conrad is new to FutureMajority so lets give him some love.

To promote a better understanding of what is going on Texas, and Democratic opportunity there, it's necessary to address fairly pervasive myths about the state. Let's start with what the Lone Star State is not. Texas is not "Wyoming South" or "the most right-wing state in the country." It's definitely not "hopeless" and it's simply not true that "all you need to know about Texas you learned from George W. Bush." (If you're a Dem who is relatively bullish on Texas, there's a good chance you've been met with these sentiments.)

George W. Bush's posturing as Mr. Texas was successful in numerous ways. Unfortunately among them is the extent to which the association of Bush with Texas in the minds of Democrats has pushed aside recognition of Texas Dems and what they represent -- from LBJ and Ralph Yarborough, to Barabara Jordan and Ann Richards, to Lloyd Doggett and Annise Parker today. Bush doesn't tell the whole story, and he's certainly not the future.

If you want to get an idea of Texas' future, think of a fictional president (though in fairness, during his first term Bush 43 was a fictional president; he didn't actually win the 2000 election). The fictional president I'm referring to is Matt Santos, the Texas Democrat elected president in the final season of The West Wing. The Santos character was based on then-Senator Barack Obama, so life has already imitated this art once. It could very well do so again. The notion of a Latino Democrat from Texas as a national presence in an upcoming election isn't far-fetched.

While calling attention to Blue Texas Rising is bound to trigger skepticism, there is good reason to be confident. Contrary to popular belief, Democratic candidates do not get routinely crushed in Texas. Let's look at three recent statewide results.

'08 TX-Pres.

• McCain (R) - 55.4%
• Obama (D) - 43.6%

'08 TX-Sen.

• Cornyn (R) - 54.8%
• Noreiga (D) - 42.8%

'10 TX-Gov.

• Perry (R) - 55.2%
• White (D) 42.3%

Note: During the Bush years, the TX GOP began to promote straight-ticket voting, which paid off for them.

Some interesting reads for you as we prepare to move into another week.

• With all the economic strife Millennials are experiencing these days, perhaps we need a National Youth Administration to help dig our way out?
• Democratic political strategist Donna Brazile outlines the extent to which Republicans plan to suppress votes in future elections.
• NPR explores how young people can improve their financial literacy; this article is one of a series of articles on the topic.
• Did you know? The largest number of American hate groups are located in Idaho and Mississippi.
• A Huffington Post piece discusses the importance of young people starting businesses and how we can enhance youth entrepreneurship in the future.
• Montana college students will be hit with a 10 percent tuition increase over two years. Why? State budget cuts.
• Allowing concealed guns on college campuses appeared to be sure to pass in Texas. However, some Democratic tactics appear to have dealt the bill a fatal blow.

Originally posted on Citizen Orange.

The "DREAM Now Series: Letters to Barack Obama" is a social media campaign that launched Monday, July 19, to underscore the urgent need to pass the DREAM Act. The Development, Relief, and Education for Alien Minors (DREAM) Act, S. 729, would help tens of thousands of young people, American in all but paperwork, to earn legal status, provided they graduate from U.S. high schools, have good moral character, and complete either two years of college or military service.  With broader comprehensive immigration reform stuck in partisan gridlock, the time is now for the White House and Congress to step up and pass the DREAM Act!

Dear Mr. President,

My name is Saad Nabeel and I am writing to you from Bangladesh. Prior to my arrival in this nation, I lived in the United States for 15 years. My parents brought me to America at age three. It is the only home I know. I used to attend the University of Texas at Arlington with a full scholarship in Electrical Engineering. Through no fault of my own I was forced to leave my home, friends, possessions, and most importantly, my education behind.

November 3rd 2009 is a day I will never forget. My mother called me and told me that my father had been detained by ICE and that we needed to leave immediately to Canada to seek refugee status. Being an only child, I had to take care of my mother and go with her.

My mother and I were denied entrance into Canada and sent back to the USA as if we were common criminals. I was separated from my mother and sent to a detention facility where I was forced to live with 60 men, many of whom were hardened criminals. There was no privacy and I was forced to use the facilities and showers while fully exposed. I lived in constant fear of being abused. I was without food for upwards of 14 hours a day and received little to no medical attention. When I asked for legal counsel I was threatened with criminal charges and jail time in a Federal Penitentiary. To this day I still have nightmares about being detained. Everything my parents taught me about human decency was replaced with humiliation. Mr. President I hope you are as outraged as I am hurt by this ordeal.

Bangladesh is extremely hot and humid. We have no air conditioning as the power goes out every day. These power outages can last twelve hours or more. The air is heavily polluted and I get food poisoning every week from the poor quality of food here. Raw sewage flows in open drains in front of our apartment. I see people outside with mangled bodies dying on the street because of the heat and starvation. I see mothers practically giving their children away because they are unable to feed them.

I do not know the language and I fear going outside because I am different from everyone else. Speaking in English is an easy way to be targeted here. We cannot afford to live in a safer area. I have not left the apartment for 8 months. It simply is too dangerous for me to leave the apartment unless my parents go with me. I cannot attend school due to the language barrier. I do not know anyone in Bangladesh.

On top of all this, my parents are both ill and have been for months. My father suffers severe asthma attacks that make him bedridden on most days. My mother has post traumatic stress and cannot accept the fact that she is not at our home in Texas.

These events transpired after we were approved to receive our Green Cards. ICE forced my family to leave knowing that Green Cards were available to us. We have been waiting for our Green Cards for 15 years now.

Mr. President, you are the most powerful man in the world, all I ask from you is to bring me home. All I ever wanted was an education so I could become an engineer. I just want to go home and go back to college. Please don't keep me exiled any longer. Please bring me home.

Sincerely,
Saad Nabeel

The "DREAM Now" letter series is inspired by a similar campaign started by the Servicemembers Legal Defense Network for the repeal of Don't Ask Don't Tell.  The letters are produced by Kyle de Beausset at Citizen Orange with the assistance of America's Voice.  Every Monday and Wednesday DREAM-eligible youth will publish letters to the President, and each Friday there will be a DREAM Now recap. 

1. Sign the DREAM Act Petition
2. Join the DREAM Act Facebook Cause
3. Send a fax in support of the DREAM Act
4. Call your Senator and ask them to pass the DREAM Act now.
5. Email kyle at citizenorange dot com to get more involved

Below is a list of previous entries in the DREAM Now Series:

Mohammad Abdollahi (19 July 2010)
Yahaira Carrillo (21 July 2010)
Weekly Recap - Tell Harry Reid You Want the DREAM Act Now (23 July 2010)
Wendy (26 July 2010)
Matias Ramos (28 July 2010)
Weekly Recap - The CHC Has To Stand With Migrant Youth Not Against Us (30 July 2010)
Tania Unzueta (2 August 2010)
Marlen Moreno (4 August 2010)
Weekly Recap - The Ghost of Virgil Goode Possesses the Republican Party (9 August 2010)
David Cho (9 August 2010)
Ivan Nikolov (11 August 2010)
Yves Gomes (16 August 2010)
Selvin Arevalo (18 August 2010)
Weekly Recap - Latino, LGBT, Migrant Youth, and Progressive Bloggers Lead For the DREAM Act (20 August 2010)
Carlos A. Roa, Jr. (23 August 2010)
Myrna Orozco (25 August 2010)
Lizbeth Mateo (30 August 2010)

The recent vote to rewrite textbooks by the conservative dominated Texas State Board of Education has received a great deal of attention over the last few days. The lesson that we as progressives need to take away from it is one that conservatives internalized long ago: people that are elected to "downballot" races can have a lot of power in shaping the direction of our communities, states, and the country as a whole.

The textbook industry is dominated by a few large states. One of the most important is Texas. Since the mission of textbook companies is to sell books, they cater their content to the whims of those states that have large enough markets to make demands. What this means is that the Texas State Board of Education is really setting textbook standards for a large portion of the country.

In the past we have mostly focused on the big prizes: the White House, U.S. House and Senate, and governorships. Downballot races don't get anywhere near the attention, especially outside their respective jurisdictions. As we now see, there are many students outside of the state of Texas that will be directly affected by what at its surface appeared to be a local election.

If you realize that the Texas State Board of Education ruling is not just a local issue and you want to help, here are some things you can do:

• Support the Texas Freedom Network, an organization that specifically fights the religious right's attempts to hijack education.
• Follow Democratic candidates for the Texas State Board of Education like Rebecca Bell-Metereau (@voterebecca) and Judy Jennings (@VoteJudyJ)

Stand with Texas progressives to shift the control of the State Board of Education, and remember that these local races are local in name only and affect us all.

The DNC Youth Council has announced three more trainings for the state delegate election process. If you don't want to get cut, you might want to get on this call:

Subject: Upcoming DNC Youth Council Delegate Selection Trainings

Friends and Colleagues--

One of the goals of the DNC's Youth Council is to increase the number of young delegates (those under 36) to the Democratic National Convention. We have already held several conference call trainings on the process to be a delegate. The trainings were extremely successful and we are eager to get underway with our next round of calls.

Below one will find a listing of some of our upcoming calls. Please spread the word to as many people as possible about these. On each call we will be joined by a member of that respective state's party to go over the process to be a Congressional District, PLEO, or At-Large delegate to the Democratic National Convention. In addition to the specific training, we will be sure to provide information on how to get more involved with the State Party and other youth organizations. (If you or your organization have specific information you would like to have mentioned, please email me and let me know as soon as possible.)

The upcoming calls are:

Vermont - Thursday, April 17 at 7pm EST

Phone: 866-810-8093
Code: 822-976-6817

North Carolina - Tuesday, April 22nd at 6pm EST
Phone: 605-475-6006
Code: 792994

Texas - Monday, April 28 at 7pm EST
Phone: 605-475-6300
Code: 85383

I have to say, this is getting exhausting, covering the primary, but last night brought more good news for youth vote advocates and young people fighting for their voice to be heard.

According to CIRCLE, the youth vote tripled in Texas yesterday, with over 620,000 young people going to the polls, despite reports that many young people experienced difficulties in casting their ballots. Youth turnout in the Lonestar state hit 17%, up from 6% in 2000, and the youth share of the electorate was 15%, up from 9% in 2000.

In Ohio, almost 480,000 young voters went to the polls - nearly double the amount from 2000. The Ohio youth turnout rate was 25%, up from 15% in 2000 and confirming my suspicion that Ohio would have a higher than average turnout rate. The youth share of the Ohio electorate was 15%, up from 11% in 2000.

In both states young voters participated in the Democratic primary over the GOP primary at a rate of 2.6 to 1, continuing the trend set in almost every other contest thus far (Oklahoma and Utah being the exceptions).

As in most of the previous contests, young voters overwhelmingly chose Sen. Obama over Senator Clinton. In Ohio he captured the youth vote 61 - 35 percent. In Texas he won by a slimmer 58 - 42 percent.

Despite these wins, Clinton seems to have recaptured what little base she has among youth - non college, low income, and young Latinos. In each category Clinton erased the gains made by Senator Obama during the Potomac Primaries just a few weeks back and won those demographics.

Less data is available for Vermont and Rhode Island (CIRCLE was not able to attain the necessary data to crunch the numbers), but here's what we know from the CNN exit polls. In Rhode Island, young voters made up 13% of the electorate - up from 8% in 2004 - and Sen. Obama capture the youth vote 53 - 47 percent. In Vermont, young voters were 11% of the electorate, a slight increase over their 10% share in 2004. As in other states, they chose Obama 64 - 31%.

Still no nominee, but the surge in youth participation continues, particularly in the two states where the candidates expended the most effort to get out the vote, and young voters continue to choose Democrats over Republicans by more than 2 - 1. Good news for November, whoever the nominee will be.

Tomorrow is Junior Super Tuesday - Sen. Clinton's final firewall, if you believe it. In Texas, both campaigns are courting the growing latino youth vote, and in Ohio, Sen. Obama has indie rock stars pumping up his already uber-energized youth supporters. He may need that extra support if prediction of snow storms blanketing the state tomorrow turn out to be true.

Here's a quick look at the demographic breakdowns of the youth vote in Ohio, Texas, Vermont and Rhode Island. As per usual, expect youth turnout to be somewhere between the 2004 primary share of the electorate and the current share of eligible voters. If trends hold, somewhere about 4 - 5% higher than 2004 primary results is a good guess, though Ohio has been a highly targeted and competitive state in recent years and turnout might be slightly higher there.

Everyone is looking at Texas and Ohio as the make-or-break states for Clinton, and in both states she has a greater than usual advantage among young voters. Young latinos, who have been more likely to support her campaign that than of Sen. Obama, are 33% of the youth electorate in Texas, and young voters as a whole are almost one quarter of the electorate overall. Most polls are projecting a slight Obama win, but they are really all within the margin of error. Leveraging young latinos to chip away Obama's base might be Clinton's key to sneaking out a victory in the Lone Star state.

In Ohio, young voters are less likely than usual to be in college or hold a college degree. Non-college youth have been turning out in far fewer numbers than their college educated peers, but when they do turn out it has tended to be for Clinton, giving her a chance to rack up a higher than expected delegate count in the state.

So Clinton stands to do better in those two states among young voters than she normally does, but the question is does it matter? Most analysts are reporting that the delegate math doesn't favor her, and it's not clear at all that there's any successful path to the nomination at this point barring a massive revolt against Obama among the super delegates.

Warning - all the state named links are to pdf files.

Ohio

2004 Share of Primary Electorate: 9%
2008 Share of the Population: 21%
Total Youth Population: 1,750,179
White non-Hispanic: 83%
Black non-Hispanic: 12%
College Students: 18%

Texas

2004 Share of Primary Electorate: 10%
2008 Share of the Population: 24%
Total Youth Population: 3,557,968
White non-Hispanic: 49%
Black non-Hispanic: 14%
Hispanic/Latino: 33%
College Students: 19%

Vermont

2004 Share of Primary Electorate: 10%
2008 Share of the Population: 20%
Total Youth Population: 94,496
White non-Hispanic: 94%
College Students: 28%

Rhode Island

2004 Share of Primary Electorate: 8%
2008 Share of the Population: 22%
Total Youth Population: 166,116
White non-Hispanic: 82%
Other: 19%
College Students: 24%

Karl-Thomas Musselman has a great diary over at the Burnt Orange Report asking "wtf happened to all those Ron Paul youth supporters?"

As a basis for his diary, Karl points to a Ron Paul rally held on a University of Texas campus recently. The rally had 4,000 attendees, but produced only 54 votes for Dr. Paul in early voting on campus.

I've noted in the past that Ron Paul has repeatedly come in 2nd, 3rd, and even 4th place among 18 - 29 year olds in the Republican primaries, and I don't think he's ever broken 20% among conservative youth in a given primary or caucus. Why is that so?

It would be hugely interesting to see a post-mortem analysis comparing the Obama and Ron Paul youth field campaigns . . . or even some decent polling asking why conservative youth cast their ballots for a specific candidate.

Quick hits for a lazy Saturday. Look for an announcement here tomorrow.

• Are today's teenage girls the next generation of online organizers? Looks like it. A new study from PEW shows that young girls are more likely than boys to be online content creators (35% vs. 20%). The one exception is online video, which is still an area in which boys participate at twice the rate of young girls.
• In anticipation for March 4th, Sen. Obama is wooing young Latinos in Texas, trying to take a bite out of his opponents base. The senator was at UT Pan American this week speaking with students about his education plan.
• Hat tip to Sarah Lai Stirland at Wired for tipping me off to Hillary Speaks to Me, a grassroots video project designed to showcase Sen. Clinton's support among young Americans (from 4 - 35 looks like a descriptive range). The site is one of the most authentically bottom up efforts in support of Senator Clinton that I've seen. The creators say that it's not "too little too late," but I have to disagree. This would have been good to see eight or nine months ago, but at this point it is overshadowed by the sheer volume of quality user generated content clogging the tubes in support of Sen. Obama.
• At WireTap, Future Majority friend and researcher for CIRCLE Karlo Barrios Marcelo explains why three is the magic number.

Here's a video of yesterday's march in Prairie View Texas in support of student voting rights. Warning, the sound is a bit loud: