Poll

New York's passage of a law allowing same sex couples to marry was met with support from New Yorkers, according to a Quinnipiac poll released today. A core segment of that support comes from young voters:

New York State voters support 54 - 40 percent a law allowing same-sex couples to marry, with voters under 35 supporting the measure 70 - 26 percent, according to a Quinnipiac University poll released today. Voters 35 to 64 years old also support the measure, while voters over 65 oppose it 57 - 37 percent. Support remained consistent before and after passage of the bill.

The more the GOP resists, the more problems it brings upon itself. Civil unions aren't enough anymore, and the larger the presence Millennials have in the voting booth and in public office, the more society will be receptive to liberty and justice for all couples.

The Panetta Institute of Public Policy, located at California State University - Monterey Bay, has sponsored an annual survey of U.S. college students since 2001.

This year's survey results revealed that students continue to be preoccupied with economic worries, though they bear much more positive attitudes this year than they have in the past. The executive summary is below:

• College students continue to express confidence in Barack Obama, and rate his performance much more highly than the country as a whole: 66% approve of his job performance, compared with 48% of the public in a contemporaneous survey. However, Obama’s approval rating has declined 9 points since his 2009 “honeymoon” period.
• While two-thirds (66%) believe that Barack Obama understands college students’ needs, just 21% say the same of Sarah Palin.
• College students continue to lean toward the Democrats as they consider the 2010 off-year elections, but there are clear warning signs for Democrats in this poll. Students are paying far less attention to this election than they were the historic 2008 presidential race (44% now, 82% in 2008) raising questions about college students’ likely turnout in November. Moreover, Democrats’ 12-point margin in the generic congressional ballot is much smaller than the 26-point lead they enjoyed at the same point in the 2006 cycle, and only slightly better than in 2002 (seven points) when Republicans elected congressional majorities.
• Students continue to view the economy as weak (83% say it is not so good or poor), and although they are not yet in the workforce, fully 40% say they have been personally affected a great deal or quite a bit by the economic downturn.
• Students’ confidence in their ability to find an acceptable job after graduation, which declined in 2009, remains low: 36% of college students, including 45% of seniors, are just somewhat or not confident that they will find an acceptable job. The 64% expressing confidence is the lowest level the survey has ever recorded.
• Interest in a government career continues to rise among college students, with 42% now very or fairly interested!the highest mark we have ever recorded. While the recession may have contributed to this rise, there has been a fairly steady increase in this measure over the past nine years.
• The survey reveals a startling gender gap when it comes to interest in an eventual run for office, with men being twice as interested in running for federal office than women (men 36%, women 18%), and also more interested in pursuing local or state office (men 43%, women 28%).
• College students’ support for same-sex marriage continues to grow, now reaching 65%, compared with just 52% in 2004.
• Students support a much more active government than the public as a whole, and they rate government’s performance much more highly. By 51% to 30%, they say government should do more to solve problems, while among the public overall, 43% say government should do more and 48% believe the government is doing too many things.

Students are ostensibly still liberal in their political views according to this survey, but their enthusiasm for participating in the 2010 midterms and supporting the Democratic Party is waning, along with their approval of President Obama. Not waning at all is their concern regarding their ability to find jobs after college.

This poll provides more evidence that the issue of job creation should be paramount for Democrats if they wish to attract college students (and young people) by this November.

• NY Times on the absurdities of corporate student lending.
• Honolulu's all digital election sees shockingly low turnout. What does this mean for voting reform?
• Campaign for America Future has a new report: America is a Center-Left Nation.
• The Prospect profiles the youngest House Democrat and Republican.
• Check out Ari Melber's take on Clinton's Pot, Obama's Cocaine and the job prospects of millennials.
• Nancy Lublin of The Huffington Post takes on the issue of lowering the voting age to 17.

• The White House opens "Office of Public Engagement.
• New research from Robert Putnam shows Gen Y and X moving away from organized religion.
• Generation Green: How green energy cost the GOP a generation of voters.
• LA Times Piece "GOP Ignores Young Millennials at its Peril".
• Town-Gown divide heightens in many college towns across the country thanks to economy.
• Newsweek's starting a new blog focusing on young voters who supported Obama in 2008.
• Kos shows that young voters place the GOP on the wrong side of same-sex partnerships.
• Gallup Poll: Democrats do Best Among Gen Y and Boomers. X is most conservative.
• The Next Right on the GOP's bleak future with young voters.

Couple small things.

First, I had time to look more closely at the Harvard IOP Poll. There was one more interesting finding that I didn't report on in my previous post:

• Young voters are extremely distrustful of the media, Congress, and the President. When it comes to institutions, Millenials place the most trust in the UN, the Supreme Court, and most of all, the military.

Combine that with the plurality of young voters (46%) who favor withdrawal from Iraq in the next year, and it seems that NeoCon foreign policy isn't going to fly with our generation for much longer. It also suggests that Millenials have less of a hard time than their parents (ironically) understanding that supporting the troops but not the war or the President aren't contradictions in terms.

Second, Josh sent me this great graphic illustrating generational political beliefs. It's pretty impressive seeing Generational shifts playout like this.

Typically, popular Presidents increase their party's lead among voters who come of age during their terms. In the case of Bush II (formerly "one of the most popular presidents"), it seems that Bush is so reviled among young people that he is actually working against his party and increasing the party identification lead that started under Clinton.

Mystery Pollster notes that these results are somewhat fleeting - people are bound to change their answers over time and/or depending on how the question is worded. Yet other studies show that we form our political opinions during our 20s. If that remains true, we may be witnessing the growth of the most democratically aligned generation in a century.

Click to view a larger image.

Hat tip to Fred for putting me on to this.

As I type this, the Harvard Institute of Politics is releasing the results of a new poll that will predict a record-shattering turnout on behalf of young voters in next week's midterm elections.

The news looks great for Democrats, and great for the youth vote - which will receive added attention from politicians and perhaps put to rest the "apathetic youth" meme if these numbers bear out.

Right now only the press release (pdf) is available, but here are the major points that HIP will report:

Turnout

• Almost 32% of 18-24 year olds report tat they will "definitely be voting" on November 7th. Previous turnout records for midterm elections stands at 26.6% in 1982.

Partisan Views

• 68% of young voters disaprove of the job that the President is doing.
• 52% would prefer that Democrats control congress vs. 29% who prefer Republicans. 19% see no difference.
• 60% believe the country is on the wrong track.
• 46% favor withdrawal from Iraq within the next year.

Faith in the System

• 75% believe that elected officials don't share their priorities.

Perhaps putting to rest the old saw that young people are apathetic because they don't see politics as relevant to their lives:

• 70% of 18-24 year olds believe that politics is relevant to their lives

The study also continues to confirm the growing trend of civic participation among millenial voters, noting that 58% of 18-24 year olds volunteer in their communities at least once a month.

The catch - only 19% have participated in a government, political, or issue-related organization in that same time period.

Preliminary Conclusions
The news is really, really good. The survey sample for this poll is huge - 2,546 respondents half of whom have attended or will attend college and half who have not. Harvard estimates the margin of error for these stats to be +/- 3%.

I'm a little reluctant to ramp up expectations. High expectations are what caused the anti-youth backlash in November and December 2004 when Kerry lost. Yet Democrats are poised to take back at least one chamber of Congress this election cycle, and many state legislatures. It looks like that victory may in part be due to young voters maintaining their high turnout from the last Presidential cycle. Certainly all the indicators point that way, and if it happens I hope that the media will give young people due credit.

Now we've just got to figure out a way to get millenials to volunteer for explicitly political organizations at the same rate that they volunteer in their communities. That would be the beginning of an unstoppable future majority for progressives.

Update: The Executive Summary (pdf) and topline data (pdf) are now online. I know what I'm doing tonight.

Update II: Typically, I got some pushback on this post from a commenter on Daily Kos. It's a rough scene over there for young voters sometimes. In response, I'm asking folks to recommend my Diary (to try to get it in front of the community and provoke a conversation), and to list, in the comments, any piece of progressive infrastructure (Blog, PAC, Org, etc.) created or run by "Millenials" (aka folks under 30).