Poll

Couple small things.

First, I had time to look more closely at the Harvard IOP Poll. There was one more interesting finding that I didn't report on in my previous post:

• Young voters are extremely distrustful of the media, Congress, and the President. When it comes to institutions, Millenials place the most trust in the UN, the Supreme Court, and most of all, the military.

Combine that with the plurality of young voters (46%) who favor withdrawal from Iraq in the next year, and it seems that NeoCon foreign policy isn't going to fly with our generation for much longer. It also suggests that Millenials have less of a hard time than their parents (ironically) understanding that supporting the troops but not the war or the President aren't contradictions in terms.

Second, Josh sent me this great graphic illustrating generational political beliefs. It's pretty impressive seeing Generational shifts playout like this.

Typically, popular Presidents increase their party's lead among voters who come of age during their terms. In the case of Bush II (formerly "one of the most popular presidents"), it seems that Bush is so reviled among young people that he is actually working against his party and increasing the party identification lead that started under Clinton.

Mystery Pollster notes that these results are somewhat fleeting - people are bound to change their answers over time and/or depending on how the question is worded. Yet other studies show that we form our political opinions during our 20s. If that remains true, we may be witnessing the growth of the most democratically aligned generation in a century.

Click to view a larger image.

Hat tip to Fred for putting me on to this.

As I type this, the Harvard Institute of Politics is releasing the results of a new poll that will predict a record-shattering turnout on behalf of young voters in next week's midterm elections.

The news looks great for Democrats, and great for the youth vote - which will receive added attention from politicians and perhaps put to rest the "apathetic youth" meme if these numbers bear out.

Right now only the press release (pdf) is available, but here are the major points that HIP will report:

Turnout

• Almost 32% of 18-24 year olds report tat they will "definitely be voting" on November 7th. Previous turnout records for midterm elections stands at 26.6% in 1982.

Partisan Views

• 68% of young voters disaprove of the job that the President is doing.
• 52% would prefer that Democrats control congress vs. 29% who prefer Republicans. 19% see no difference.
• 60% believe the country is on the wrong track.
• 46% favor withdrawal from Iraq within the next year.

Faith in the System

• 75% believe that elected officials don't share their priorities.

Perhaps putting to rest the old saw that young people are apathetic because they don't see politics as relevant to their lives:

• 70% of 18-24 year olds believe that politics is relevant to their lives

The study also continues to confirm the growing trend of civic participation among millenial voters, noting that 58% of 18-24 year olds volunteer in their communities at least once a month.

The catch - only 19% have participated in a government, political, or issue-related organization in that same time period.

Preliminary Conclusions
The news is really, really good. The survey sample for this poll is huge - 2,546 respondents half of whom have attended or will attend college and half who have not. Harvard estimates the margin of error for these stats to be +/- 3%.

I'm a little reluctant to ramp up expectations. High expectations are what caused the anti-youth backlash in November and December 2004 when Kerry lost. Yet Democrats are poised to take back at least one chamber of Congress this election cycle, and many state legislatures. It looks like that victory may in part be due to young voters maintaining their high turnout from the last Presidential cycle. Certainly all the indicators point that way, and if it happens I hope that the media will give young people due credit.

Now we've just got to figure out a way to get millenials to volunteer for explicitly political organizations at the same rate that they volunteer in their communities. That would be the beginning of an unstoppable future majority for progressives.

Update: The Executive Summary (pdf) and topline data (pdf) are now online. I know what I'm doing tonight.

Update II: Typically, I got some pushback on this post from a commenter on Daily Kos. It's a rough scene over there for young voters sometimes. In response, I'm asking folks to recommend my Diary (to try to get it in front of the community and provoke a conversation), and to list, in the comments, any piece of progressive infrastructure (Blog, PAC, Org, etc.) created or run by "Millenials" (aka folks under 30).