Survey

The GOP is in a state of disarray, and it's sent their party identification numbers slide down the slippery slope to irrelevance. Arlene Specter's defection is just one more indicator that the conservatives activists who dominated the party's national scene during the GWB Administration have alienated moderate conservatives.

The above graph from the recent Pew Research Center study on political identification finds that GOP identity is down in all regions of the country - even the South, a stronghold of the modern Republican party. The decline in GOP identity has not resulted in an increase in Democratic identity. This may be due to the trend that people are less likely to view President Obama as listening to the moderates in his party.

At the same time, young people are very much in favor of President Obama (70 percent), much more favorably than older Americans (55 percent). As progressive principles are becoming mainstream among Millennials, we should be careful not to become an inflexible bunch, like the right-wing conservatives that have driven Arlene Specter and others out of their party. As GOP moderates and others become more independent politically, we should take the big tent approach that is the foundation of democracy, and include as many "blue dogs" and moderates as possible. The reality is is that it's easier to work with someone on friendly rather than hostile terms. This is easier said then done, however, because partisan politics has heavy, entrenched machinery behind it, but we should take heart in the long view. To pick up on something President Obama said recently, "I'm a big believer that things are never as good as they seem and never as bad as they seem." That's probably true of the GOP, too. They are down, but not out, and as they rebuild their party we should try a new approach with our moderate friends from across the aisle and invite them to share their ideas as we upgrade our democracy to one focused on citizen-power, not ideology. Remember, our shared problems and opportunities are bigger than our differences.

So, like, surprise! It might not be interesting that young people are moving towards online activism, but just so that the MSM knows what's going on, I will pull out a quote from Pew's latest study, entitled, Internet's Role in Campaign 2008: "Among young voters and those with broadband connections the Internet has eclipsed traditional media like television, radio and newspapers, the survey found." That's right, the Internet has WON! (By being the most democratic, open-source place for news, information and fact-checking.)

* 49% of Obama voters shared text messages related to the campaign with others; 29% of McCain voters did so.
* 17% of Obama supporters and 7% of McCain supporters got text messages directly from a candidate or party.

This makes sense. Businesses like CREDO Mobile, a Working Assets project, link progressive organizers, activists and everyday citizens. Given that young people are the most likely demographic to own only a cell phone, outfits like CREDO and others that connect organizers to mobile phone users should stand to gain a lot as progressive activists build upon the online organizing lessons of 2008. One of those lessons is that online video works! (If you haven't checked it out already, watch FM's own Sarah Burris on why paying taxes is important--the video was picked up live on CNN yesterday.)

Video advocacy is becoming even easier, because you can broadcast from your mobile phone using Qik. The flexibility of broadcasting yourself from your mobile means that folks can spend less time behind a computer, and more time doing advocacy when and where they want. Also, videos are a better medium to reach youth of color and those in low income communities, so 2010 may be the first real test of how Qik and online videos can be used to target younger folks that are generally left out of the political process. (Shana Glickfield over at NextGenWeb.org has a nice summary of how to use video advocacy.)

The Pew study also confirms that young voters are very active politically on social networking sites, and are the most likely age group to "customize political or election news." Young folks understand that you still need to make the Internet personal. Customizing a message for a target audience, whether that be high school students or union members, helps increase the probability that they will read (and possibly re-customize and share) the message.

While many young people are digital collaborators, they still haven't forgot the power of personal communication. The 2008 election wasn't about young voters on Facebook; it was about young voters talking to each other (using any medium) about politics and the election. I'll say it again because it bears repeating if you want to work with the Millennial generation: PEER-TO-PEER works! With all of the information available today, folks need someone they can trust to help them navigate and validate that information. This means that sending a surrogate on behalf of a candidate is probably less likely to win votes than if you were to organize a group of young people to reach out to their friends and peers.

Women’s Voices, Women’s Vote (WVWV) released a new survey on voting and civic engagement in the 2008 election (h/t Tom Manatos). The survey looks specifically at the “Rising American Electorate”, defined by those demographics that are increasingly progressive and populous--unmarried women, African American voters, Latino and young voters. These demographics were strong Obama supporters and voters. The survey totals 1,649 interviews, 337 of which are of young voters. While the youth sample size is smaller than other surveys on similar topics (as well as when compared to the over three demographics groups in the survey), it is the most recent survey of its kind to investigate the 2008 election. Let’s begin with some of the big findings on young voters.

• 79 percent support the Stimulus package that was passed by Congress and signed by President Obama
• Only 36 percent rate their personal economic situation as ‘Excellent’ or ‘Good‘
• 77 percent feel that President Obama is speaking directly to them and the issues they care about
• 46 percent reported that they were absolutely certain they would vote in the 2010 election cycle.

The broad support for President Obama and the stimulus package probably stems from the fact that campaign promises were kept about college affordability and green jobs, especially given the fact that two-thirds of young people view their economic situation as ’just fair’ or ’poor’. And just two nights ago, President Obama addressed another issue that has found strong support from young people in other surveys--community service. The proposal, known as the Kennedy-Hatch Serve America Act would help “get the underemployed (primarily young people) working in communities badly hit by the recession”, argue Christopher Gergen and Gregg Vanorek in a Washington Times Op-Ed piece. Peter Levine, on a similar line of reasoning, supports the Kennedy-Hatch Act, too:

The more advantaged half of the young population that attends college receives educational opportunities subsidized by the public. But those who do not continue formal education beyond high school find that almost all government-funded educational programs have age limits of 18 or 21. Working-class youth are basically subsidizing their more advantaged peers' learning opportunities with their tax dollars. Service programs such as YouthBuild, Public Allies, City Year, and the National Civilian Community Corps (among others) help to right this imbalance by offering opportunities to young adults who may not be on the college track.

This survey by WVWV finds that the Rising American Electorate is increasingly progressive, but warns that there are other forces at work to stop the momentum. This is perhaps true for African American and Latino voters who have taken socially conservative stances on some issues, such as gay rights. The Proposition 8 vote in California, which sought to change the state’s constitution to ban gay marriage, was supported by majorities of both African American (70 percent YES) and Latino voters (53 percent YES) of any age. Not so with young voters, who were the only demographic group against the proposition (61 percent NO). More broadly, Millennials are the most progressive cohort in decades, a finding from The Millennial Pendulum, already blogged about by FM co-bloggers Mike and Craig. And then add to all that the parity in political party identity, which favors the Democrats.

An election may have just passed, but 2010 is already on the horizon. The WVWV report finds that young voters are the most likely demographic to “drop-off” their participation rate from the 2008 presidential election to the 2010 cycle, but the report doesn’t reveal the percentage of youth that intend to vote in 2010, regardless of the degree of certainty. Still, it is true that young voters, along with all voters, have lower voter turnout rates in non-Presidential cycles. Young voters did increase their turnout from the 2002 to 2006 midterm elections (PDF), but with the current recession and uncertainty about funding, GOTV and registration efforts will need to be efficient for 2010 in order to keep up the participation level among young voters.

Another set of numbers, this set from a poll by Democracy Corps and Greenberg Quinlan Rosner, points to a paradigm shift in American politics in 2008. Cue more Republican frustration, as they realize their concoction of race and divisive social issues just doesn't work anymore.

Not surprising, when forced to choose voters says that returning the economy to sound footing and creating quality jobs is Obama’s top goal. But more surprising, given the dominance of the stimulus story, is that voters see through this to other goals – which are seen as somewhat more important to the Obama project – and thus give the presidency definition beyond the recovery. For the public, at the heart of the Obama project is a turn away from greed and the super-rich and toward the middle class and its values, with greater opportunity, security and rising prosperity.

This will come up in my other posts this weekend, but the last sentence of the quote starts to dig at something very important. With people buying into a basic Democratic Party principle of shared wealth and emphasis on a growing middle class, the GOP is holding the hot potato here, caught in a bad place politically. Sure, cable news blowhards and political pundits might have you believe that Obama's mojo is down the drain thanks to the indecisiveness of Sen. Judd Gregg, but the people -- the only ones who count in the end -- say otherwise. From this past Monday:

Sixty-seven percent of the American people approve of how President Obama's handling his efforts to pass an economic stimulus bill, as opposed to 48% for Democrats in Congress and 31% for congressional Republicans.

Congressional Republicans actually have a staggeringly high 58% DISapproval rating for how they're handling the stimulus debate, compared to 42% for Hill Democrats and only 25% for President Obama.

Gallup says that 51% of those polled believe that passing the economic stimulus plan is "critically important" for the economy, with 29% saying it's important. Only 16% say it is "not that important."

Millennials are being added to this rapidly transforming electorate, making it even more progressive. The Millennials, not surprisingly, share the president's economic views represented in the stimulus. Neil Howe and Reena Nadler discuss this in their new report, titled "Yes We Can: The Emergence of Millennials as a Political Generation." (I'll be blogging about this this weekend.)

They favor tax plans and other policies that create a strong middle class—18- to 22-year olds today are more likely than any other age group to favor government action to reduce economic inequality.

It's hard to see how the GOP can be optimistic here. The Democratic Party is increasingly becoming the party that represents the average American's view on the economy. Millennials, having come of age in a period of stratified U.S. income, are reasonably concluding that the Republican way can't be trusted any longer. The United States is not only understanding what its president is doing, but also they understand why he's doing it. And even more importantly, they agree with it.