Young Voters

On last night's Colbert Report columnist David Frum called for an economically inclusive, environmentally responsible and socially modern Republican party. He called out Tea Party activists saying

Frum: "If we could arrange it so that in 2012 only 40% of the American people came out to vote and only a quarter of them were over the age of 65 ..."

Colbert: "Republicans are working on it!"

Frum: "Ok... then the Tea Party idea might work. That's the thing that went wrong in 2010... This is a country of young people. This is a country that is full of people who are worried more about unemployment than about protecting their personal Medicare..." (it continues in the video below)

Frum isn't the only one who noticed that the Tea Party message and the conservative policies of today's GOP doesn't resonate with young voters. Data has shown that Millennials place more trust in the government than older demographics and certainly have less faith in the trust of corporations and the so-called "free market." It's no wonder the Republican Party is having such a hard time bringing in more young people...

Seriously.

"STOSSEL: I’m not saying we should have a test or something. But this endless cheerleading — let’s go to the rock concerts and register the kids. And the kids aren’t paying attention. And it’s important in a democracy, it’s important to vote. And these are important issues. The people who participate ought to be the ones who pay attention… I’m just saying we shouldn’t have these "Get Out The Vote” campaigns and make these statements: "Everyone has to vote. It’s your patriotic duty!" Well if you’re not paying attention, I think it’s your patriotic duty not to vote."

This explains the GOP's campaign to make it harder for democratic voters to participate in democracy. I mean - really why bother, right? Let's just have a dictatorship. Democracy is too expensive anyway. Or maybe a monarchy - those are fancy right? Maybe John Stossel is just too dumb to vote.

(h/t ThinkProgress)

Ron Paul has been cleaning up the youth vote - but did you notice that the polls in the days leading up to the Iowa Caucus and the New Hampshire Primary were a little.... what's the technical term...? Off? Wrong? Skewed? It turns out that polls all significantly under-sampled young voters.

According to a report from Stefan Hankin from Campaigns and Elections Magazine

"The miss on the Paul numbers is a bit troubling. When looking at the polling firms that release their demographics, it is clear that younger voters were under sampled. In the last Suffolk Poll, under 35s were at 7.6 percent; PPP had under 30s at 10 percent. Moreover, both these firms were also off on the sampling of independent voters. PPP had independents at 37 percent and Suffolk had them at 40 percent."

If you're a regular reader of FM then you know this is typical. The loudest example was a CNN poll that didn't sample enough young people to get an accurate number so for young people they just put N/A. Many times polling firms will use "likely voters" and since most pollsters are aging politicos who still operate under the assumption that young people don't vote... a large sample of the 18-29 year old demographic doesn't make it into the polling models. The other major problem is that most polling firms use land lines to contact potential voters. Young people don't really use landlines... and that's becoming increasingly the case.

As the 2012 election season ramps up, let this be a reminder that most polls are going to ignore young people. This is not at all a valid reflection of the overall electorate. We've proven that young people can make a difference in the election if we're mobilized and unified around a candidate or an issue. Ignore the youth vote at your own peril.

Headcount goes to New Hampshire to interview young republicans and Occupy Protestors

Rick Santorum made the mistake of using Suffolk University in Concord, New Hampshire (where gay marriage is legal) this week for his anti-equality policies that got him into the unfortunate google trouble. When asked by a college student why his policies on equality didn't include LGBT couples, Santorum compared it to polygamy and then avoided discussion when the conversation turned against him.

"After several students tried to interject, Santorum said he would end the debate, insisting "I'm going to give people one more chance and then we are going to move on."

Santorum had seen a surge coming out of the caucus in Iowa where he was in the #2 spot by just 8 votes below Romney. But after word of the University students cold reception spread it seems Santorum's surge has plateaued, according to a two day tracking poll done by Suffolk.

"Santorum's support among independents, who can vote in New Hampshire's Republican contest, dropped from 6 percent to 3 percent after the college event, according to Suffolk's findings. His support from 18 to 34 year olds dropped from 9 percent to 2 percent."

It was comments on marriage and quality this that got Santorum into trouble with The Google several year ago, you'd think he'd learn...

The headline of a December 15 press release from the Harvard Institute of Politics trumpeted, "More Millennials Predict Obama Will Lose Bid for Re-election Than Win, Harvard Poll Finds." The article elaborated that among all the 18-29-year-olds, opinion on this question is actually quite evenly divided into almost equal thirds: 36% believe that the president will lose in 2012; 30% think he will win; and 32% are not sure. Not surprisingly, conservative media and politicians jumped on the story with particular vigor and glee.

The headline was certainly provocative, but it hardly told the complete story about the Harvard poll's results, to say nothing of Millennial political attitudes and preferences, entering 2012. The problem is that asking Millennials which candidate they expect to win an election may measure their awareness of the conventional wisdom that says President Obama is in deep trouble and that next year's election is the Republicans to lose, but it says very little about how Millennials are actually going to vote in 2012. When Harvard asked that question directly, things look different. Obama leads among Millennials by double digits against all likely Republican opponents: 11 points versus Mitt Romney and 16 points versus both Newt Gingrich and Rick Perry.

The current state of Millennial Generation (born 1982-2003) political opinions and behavior is, in fact, reflected far more completely and precisely by a November Pew Research survey:

"In the last four national elections generational differences have mattered more than they have in decades. According to exit polls, younger people have voted substantially more Democratic than other age groups since 2004, while older voters have cast more ballots for Republican candidates in each election since 2006. The latest national polls suggest this pattern may well continue in 2012... One of the largest factors driving the current generation gap is the arrival of diverse and Democratic-oriented Millennials... This group holds liberal attitudes on most social and governmental issues."

In the Pew research, Millennials prefer Barack Obama over Mitt Romney (61% vs. 37%) by about the same 2:1 margin that they voted for him against John McCain in 2008 (66% vs. 32%). Even white Millennials, a cohort that has received considerable attention from commentators in recent months for their modest drift toward the GOP, are evenly divided in the 2012 voting preferences (49% each for Obama and Romney). The president's margin among Millennials is even greater against other potential Republican nominees than it is against Romney.

Moreover, Millennials tended toward the Democrats before Barack Obama achieved national prominence. Millennials identify as Democrats over Republicans by 50% to 35%. Majorities of Millennials also hold favorable attitudes toward the Democratic Party (51%) and unfavorable attitudes toward the GOP (53%). In the policy arena, by 56% to 35%, Millennials prefer a bigger government that provides more services to a smaller government that provides fewer services. This broad belief in governmental approaches in dealing with economic and societal issues is reflected in the almost 2:1 preference of Millennials for the expansion rather than the repeal of the 2010 health care reform legislation (44% to 27%) and for increased spending to help economic recovery rather than reducing the budget deficit (55% to 41%).

Millennials also hold opinions on a range of social issues that incline the generation toward the Democratic Party and Barack Obama. A majority of Millennials (59%) support the legalization of gay marriage, while only 28% of them agree that America has gone too far in pushing for equal rights. Probably because it is the most diverse in U.S. history (about 40% are nonwhite and one in five have an immigrant parent) virtually all Millennials (81%) favor providing a pathway to citizenship for undocumented immigrants.

Of course, the Millennial Generation's continued clear support for Barack Obama and the Democratic Party is not a sure thing. Both the president and his party must convince Millennials that they can effectively use the government to fix the problems confronting their generation and the nation. But electoral politics is a two-way street. To win Millennial support, the Republican Party has to persuade Millennials that it and its potential presidential nominees are a viable alternative. So far, there is little in the Pew research (or any other poll) to suggest that they have done much to accomplish that undertaking. If anything, the GOP's push to the right on both economic and social issues makes that increasingly unlikely.

In the end, the Democrats' biggest Millennial concern is not likely to be the generation's partisanship or opinions on issues, but its political engagement. The Pew survey indicates that only 69% of Millennials claim to care a good deal about who wins the presidency in 2012. This compares with over 80% among older generations. At the same time, a recent Gallup Poll indicates that the contentious struggle for the Republican presidential nomination and the performance of the party's leadership in Congress may have taken a toll on the Republican Party and sharply narrowed the "enthusiasm gap" between the Democrats and GOP.

As a result, the participation of Millennials is perhaps even more crucial in 2012 than it was four years earlier. In 2008, the generation comprised about 17% of the electorate and accounted for about 80% of Barack Obama's national popular vote majority. In 2012, as increasing numbers of Millennials reach voting age, they have the potential to comprise about a quarter of the electorate. If Millennials vote in numbers proportionate to their potential, their continued support of the president, as indicated by Pew, will likely allow him to overcome any losses he suffers among older voters. If large numbers of Millennials do not vote or are prevented from doing so by efforts in states across the country to limit their turnout, the president's reelection chances will be sharply reduced.

The answers to those questions, not any current judgments on which candidate is likely to win, will very likely determine whether Barack Obama or his eventual Republican opponent is inaugurated as president on January 20, 2013.

Crossposted with permission from Mike and Morley from HuffPo

In his usual ill-timed way, as “Occupy” protests started to spread across the country, columnist and author Tom Friedman used his appearance on MTV to tell ”young people [that they] need to be paying attention right now because we’re messing with your future.”

This was only the most recent occasion when Friedman suggested that today’s young people—the Millennial Generation (born 1982-2003)—are somehow too quiet, inattentive, or apathetic about the weighty issues that confront their generation and the nation. At least as far back as 2007, when the issue was the Iraq war, Friedman argued that Millennials should follow the example of his generation—Baby Boomers—and take to the streets to directly protest the war and confront the government that was waging it, even as Millennials were organizing to elect a presidential candidate who kept his promise to phase out America’s involvement in that conflict.

Millennials are not apathetic or inattentive. Given their relatively limited employment prospects, high student loan debts and the fact that it is their generation that makes up most of America’s fighting force in Iraq and Afghanistan, it defies logic to suggest that Millennials are unaware of and do not care about what is going on around them.

In 2008, Millennials, for all practical purposes, elected President Obama. Turning out in larger numbers than young people had for decades and voting for Barack Obama over John McCain by a greater than 2:1 margin (66% to 32%), their generation contributed about 80 percent of the president’s popular vote margin of victory. A recent CNN survey indicates that Obama maintains this same 2:1 lead among Millennials against all of his likely 2012 GOP opponents. (PDF) And, Millennials hold positions that are in almost total contrast to those of older generations on the range of issues that are currently the focus of debate in American politics. According to Pew Survey Research Center data, by a 54% to 39% margin Millennials favor a larger activist government that “provides more services” to a “smaller government that provides fewer services.” By 64% to 31% Millennials endorse gay marriage and by 69% to 26% they believe that immigrants strengthen rather than threaten American society and values.

Of course, Friedman might argue that just because Millennials have distinctive beliefs, they don’t seem to be very busy acting on those beliefs. Actually, however, Millennials are plenty busy. Perhaps if Friedman were to meet and talk with Millennials such as Hilary Doe, who heads the Roosevelt Institute’s Campus Network efforts to develop and implement a comprehensive program to reshape all aspects of American life by 2040 detailed in their Blueprint for a Millennial America, he might think differently about the level of public advocacy among Millennials. Or maybe he should observe the Millennial Leadership Summit in November in New York City where, Mobilize.org, the organization Maya Enista leads, will provide leadership development opportunities for already successful Millennial social entrepreneurs and encourage other members of the network to further develop their leadership skills..

Maybe Friedman is missing all of this involvement and hard work because what Millennials are doing and how they go about doing it doesn’t make for “good TV” like the “in your face” protest tactics that Friedman’s Boomer Generation used almost half a century ago. But despite Boomer fixation with the technology of their youth, just because it’s not on TV, doesn’t mean it isn’t happening. Millennials are neither inactive nor docile, but are working hard to fix the unresponsive institutions and inequitable systems they have inherited from earlier generations. If Boomers would take the time to look in the right places they would see—and maybe even feel good about—what Millennials are doing to clean up the mess that Friedman acknowledges his generation created for its kids and grandkids.

Morley Winograd and Michael D. Hais are fellows of NDN and the New Policy Institute and co-authors of the newly published Millennial Momentum: How a New Generation is Remaking America and Millennial Makeover: MySpace, YouTube, and the Future of American Politics.

All of you went above and beyond to help Cong. Tammy Baldwin when she announced she was running for the U.S. Senate in the open seat of retiring Sen. Herb Kohl's seat. Those who know Tammy love her - for her progressive values, her steadfast fight, and her down-to-earth nature. So we wanted to highlight something you may not know about Tammy.

When it comes to campaigning in and around Wisconsin, there are few with more experience than Tammy Baldwin. Tammy first ran for office at age 24, rallying her fellow law students at the University of Wisconsin, Madison to turn out for her campaign for Dane County Board of Supervisors. When she first ran for Congress, so many students got out to vote for Tammy that the student polling places ran out of ballots. In her impressive 25 years of public service, the students she represents have been a big part of Tammy’s advocacy. With a district that’s home to not only UW’s flagship campus (Go Badgers!) but six other universities and colleges, Tammy is no stranger to knocking on dormitory doors and she’s a regular figure in each fall's Homecoming Parade.

In the halls of Congress, Tammy remembers the young people who've helped her get along. She recently spoke about the progress we’ve made helping young people who are struggling to start their careers in the difficult economy. Thanks to a measure offered by Tammy to the Affordable Care Act, one million young people were covered by health insurance because they were allowed to stay on their parents health care policies until they turned 26. When we elect leaders who are connected to coping families and understand the hurdles young people face, we amplify young, progressive voices in Congress.

"I fought to allow young people up to age 26 stay on their parents’ health insurance plans because, in today’s economy, finding a job after graduation from high school or college can be challenging,” Baldwin said. “I’m receiving many expressions of gratitude and relief because my suggestion is now law, and young people are able to secure health coverage through their parents’ policies,” she added.

Watch Tammy talk about the addition to the health care reform legislation.

Tammy ran for office at such a young age because she knew she could make a difference. She is still connected to graduating seniors in Madison who are beginning their job searches in the worst economies of their lifetime. Her fight began at 24, but 25 years later she continues working for families, new and old, as they navigate these tough times. This is the kind of connected and compassionate leadership we need more of in the U.S. Senate, and it’s one of the many reasons EMILY's List is standing behind her.

Over the next year, and with our help, Tammy will take her message beyond Madison and southern Wisconsin as she campaigns statewide. She’ll be knocking on doors and telling her story to voters across the state. Tammy’s a hometown girl raised by her mother and grandparents, graduate of Wisconsin’s public schools, the state’s first woman elected to Congress, and the first and only openly gay woman in Congress. We all know why Tammy is the right person for the job, so let’s spread the word about Tammy Baldwin’s history of leadership, her understanding the struggles working families face and commitment to put Americans back to work. Share this blog on Twitter and Facebook and ask your friends to learn more about those elected officials stepping up for young people!

Crossposted from the EMILY's List blog

Jon Huntsman, in campaigning for the Republican nomination for the presidency, is encountering a rough reality five months removed from the New Hampshire primary: voters don't know who he is. And if general voters don't know who he is, I'm guessing young voters aren't well aware of the former governor-turned presidential candidate either.

While Huntsman has some work to do with the general electorate, And maybe some his daughters are attempting to do their part in reaching out to young voters through Twitter.

On July 28, Huntsman's three oldest daughters started their own Twitter account. At the outset, the Twitter account was created based on the daughters' desire to share where they are and what they are doing with friends. But then they thought about other uses.

Abby Huntsman, 25, said she and her sisters came up with the idea on their own as a way to keep friends informed.

'All our friends are like, "Where are you? You’re always in different places and doing interesting things!"

'And we thought, "This is a great way to reach out to, not only our friends, but to the youth and to anybody interested in following the campaign",' she said.

[...]

Abby Huntsman said she’s not sure what role the @Jon2012girls account will play in the upcoming election, but she believes she and her sisters have a basic duty to their dad.

'I think our involvement is pretty simple. It’s just getting out there, getting people excited and getting them to know a little bit about my dad,' she said.

I'm not one to knock efforts to appeal to young voters or engage in social media, so kudos to the Huntsmans.

However, I think we need to remember that technology in 2008 campaigns and technology in 2012 campaigns are entirely different phenomena. So while simply "getting a Twitter or Facebook" might have been able to pass as some kind of appeal to youth in 2008 (even that is highly doubtful), doing that alone definitely won't work in 2012.

If the Huntsman daughters legitimately want to appeal to young voters, maybe they need to tell their dad to campaign and advocate for true pro-growth policies, strategies that create jobs and increase government revenues. That's what we want and need. That he definitely wouldn't get out of the GOP primary after spreading this message shows you just how far the Republican Party is from young voters' priorities.

Politico published an op-ed piece this morning examining both parties' use of younger messengers on television to attract the 35-60 crowd. Martin Frost, a former Democratic representative from Texas and the author, attempts to rationalize this.

Both parties know that the key electorate in the 2012 is voters between the ages of 35 and 60. Younger voters are likely to stay with President Barack Obama, but older voters are a battleground to be fought over on traditional issues like Social Security and Medicare.

It is these voters between 35 and 60, increasingly identifying as independents, who are expected to be the true battleground in both Obama’s re-election and the Democrats’ effort to re-take control of the House.

Emphasis is mine.

It's pretty simple: if the Democrats and the Obama campaign make similar assumptions about young voters and the campaign takes the youth vote for granted, the 35-60 year old vote won't matter.