Republicans

Saturday evening reading:

• As we're moving closer and closer to Election Day -- one month from today! -- make sure to go over to the website for the November Fifth Coalition. Here is an excerpt from the front page of their site that explains their objectives:
  

  The November 5th Coalition is an all-partisan alliance committed to civic partnerships that address our biggest challenges. The Coalition is named for the day after the election in 2008 when a new chapter of America's civic history begins. Wherever the people gather they should be able to ask candidates “November 5th questions” about how they plan to tap the talents of the whole society, instead of posing as superheroes who will solve our problems for us. We will also develop leadership networks and civic policies that can serve as resources for a new administration. We encourage our fellow citizens to join with us in calling on candidates to rise above excessively divisive partisanship and to promote the common good.

• The Personal Democracy Forum has the top five reasons you won't be able to vote.
• Gizmodo takes you on a tour of the new Obama iPhone application. Very impressive! You can download it here.
• More scare tactics from the Republicans, this time aimed at Montana voters. Alternet has the details.
• Young Nevadans are overwhelmingly registering as Democrats:
  

  In the 18 to 24 age group, for example, Democrats have 54,192 registered voters compared with 31,405 Republicans, or 45 percent of the total registered voters for Democrats versus 26 percent for Republicans. That's a 19 percentage point difference.

• More youth attempting to be politically engaged. More youth being told not to. This time in Texas.
• Prop 8, the evangelical-led effort to amend California's constitution to define marriage as a union between a man and a woman, has gradually grown less and less popular; this Washington Post article explains that young voters are the main reason for the decline in popularity.

Over the past eight years, we've come to expect a stagnant economy (especially as we've come to know who is in charge and how he operates). The trickle-down economics of the Republican Party and the Bush administration was great for Wall Street, but those in the middle class who were working on Main Street were hung out to dry. Even as many railed against this failed theory and its implications, no one listened; government intervention in the economy was labeled as socialist and, as a result, scorned. So we continued on, trusting the wealthy elite with our economic system, who spurned regulation, doling out risky loans. And then came this week. Now that we're on the verge of a "complete meltdown of our financial system," the popularity of government among free-market conservatives has skyrocketed.

We've apparently come a long way from Ronald Reagan's (and Generation X's) position on government, explained in his first inaugural in 1981:

In this present crisis, government is not the solution to our problem. Government is the problem.

From time to time we've been tempted to believe that society is too complex to be managed by self-rule. That government by an elite group is superior to government for, by, and of the people.

Now, of course, government intervention is imperative. Even if it costs middle-class taxpayers one trillion dollars, it's necessary. I don't oppose the bipartisan compromise being floated to congressional officials; but I do agree with Senator Christopher Dodd (D-CT): this certainly was "avoidable." And what frustrates me is that it would have been avoidable had government not been declared a "problem" and banished from the economy.

So when I put this all together, I see an event as cataclysmic as any that could have happened in this already monumental political year. As Jerome a Paris put it in his Daily Kos diary yesterday, "markets have completely failed."

After years of deregulation, of promotion of greed and assertion of the superiority of the market, and in particular of financial makrets to decide how to run the economy, it appears - nay, make that: it is now blatantly, in your face, obvious - that none of this worked. Worse, the people that have mocked government throughout, as wasteful, inefficient and incompetent are now counting on the very same government to bail them out from the hole they have dug.

They made out like bandits during the "boom" years of the boom-AND-bust cycle they brought about with their policy suggestions, looting the middle classes in the process and are now trying - may, make that "succeeding" - to not bear the consequences of the same policies.

They have no consistency, no shame and no scruples.

And what makes this moment even more seminal?

The fact that we have a generation of 75 million Americans that are emerging as adults, that believe in the power of government intervention and action, as long as it improves the quality of life of others. The fact that this generation has proven in 2004, 2006, and in the 2008 primaries that it will turn out to vote. The fact that there's a candidate on the ballot who knows how to utilize the traits of this generation in order to mobilize them.

As if they needed another example of what happens when those not believing in government are actually governing, members of Generation Y have it.

When it came to the decision to go into Iraq, the Bush administration bungled it according to Millennials.

...in November, 2004 Democracy Corps polling, 57 percent of 18-29 year olds (note: only the 18-26 year olds in this group qualify as Millennials) believed that America’s security depends on building strong ties with other nations, compared to just 37 percent who believed that, “bottom line,” America’s security depends on its own military strength. This was the most pro-multilateralist sentiment of any age group.

Not only didn't they agree with our Bush-led government's go-it-alone cowboy diplomacy, only to watch the mess in Iraq unfold for years; they also watched and heard about the failure of government to act following the landfall of Hurricane Katrina. 10,000 volunteers traveled to the Gulf Coast within the first year following Hurricane Katrina's landfall, hearing stories about hardship that was worsened by FEMA's lackluster and disorganized response.

And now, in this financial crisis, Millennials see one more example of what happens when government-hating conservatives are in power, just as they themselves are in the middle of their political awakening.

In a race that promises to be dominated by the economy for the entirety of the six remaining weeks until Election Day; in a race that will most likely see the surge in youth activism continue; in a race that pits one waffling Republican not sure what to believe about government regulation against a Democrat who has always been on the side of the lower- and middle-classes, 2008 is looking more and more like a 1932 election. I'm wondering if this may be the final straw for what used to be the anti-government Republican Party.

• Hat tip to Tony Cani, the Political Director of the Young Democrats, for catching the most cynical youth story of the week. From the conservative Washington Times:
  

  Republicans can keep young voters who support Democratic nominee Barack Obama at home by giving their young relatives and friends gift cards to iTunes and Starbucks that are good only on Nov. 4, election day.

  “That’s the only way to keep them away from the polls,” said Kellyanne Conway, president of The Polling Company, during a breakfast with the delegates at their hotel near the University of Minnesota.

  Tony has the appropriate response.

• That last gem comes courtesy of a speaker addressing the Virginia delegation at the Republican National Convention. But I don't think the Virginia GOP needs any help suppressing the youth vote, they're already doing a bang-up job of that, according to this New York Times article. A local registrar near Virginia Tech is improperly and inaccurately threatening students with the loss of financial aid if they register to vote in the state.
• Meanwhile, in another swing state, the Ohio Secretary of State is actually doing her job and is taking precautions to prevent voter suppression at the polls in November.
• Everyone should read Glenn Greenwald's post about why McCain and Palin can lie with impunity on the stump.
• On September 18th, the Center for American Progress is hosting an event on Millennials and how they will reshape the electorate. RSVP here.
• AEI has their own event on Millennials as well. Let's say that their take is not so optimistic. Details and RSVP here.
• The WE Campaign, 1 Sky and Green for All are teaming up for a day of action to promote Green Jobs Now. So far there are 232 events scheduled for September 27th.
• YP4 is offering an online course (Free!) on how to fight the Religious Right. The course begins Sept. 15th.
• YP4 is also recruiting a new class of Fellows. Find out more here.
• The New York Times has an interesting piece on the state of the money-race, including an interesting bit about Obama donors collecting checks that will go to the state parties in Battlegrounds.

The New York Times blog The Caucus has an interesting story up on the Republican Party, its failure to reach out to young voters, and the feelings of frustration young Republicans have about it.

Check it out.

One comment I have is a general observation of all of these pieces that tend to be published every few weeks or so: those young Republicans that are interviewed are always ignoring reality. They feel like eventually there's going to be this gradual shift toward Republicans as the voters get older.

Some young Republicans seemed unsure of how to assuage their peers’ concerns. Asked how to respond to a younger generation that tends to be more supportive of gay rights, a young social conservative said that when people “become older” and have their own families, they will start to take social issues more seriously.

Mr. Black, a fiscal conservative who is openly gay, said almost the same thing about taxes: “When you get older you experience some of those issues that Republicans deal with.”

Still, he said, Republicans should not just wait for young Democrats to grow up. Republican activists “can’t just assume that they’re eventually going to come through. They need to be the alternative at the time they’re making the decision.”

The bit about taking social issues more seriously is simply not true. Research shows that those youth voting for a particular party for three straight elections typically develop a bond with that party for the rest of their lives. This myth has actually been shredded several times on this blog in the past.

Now, these younger Republicans do seem to feel the urgency a bit more than the old, white, male crowd. I actually commend them for looking for ways to reach out to youth. And there seems to be some acknowledgment early in the article that the way to do this is peer-to-peer interaction, so they're on the right path.

But this means we need to get our own act in order. Mike has discussed the atrophy of the youth infrastructure this election cycle due to the severely limited funding. It might be a while before the Republicans get the hint that an aggressive outreach toward youth will pay huge dividends in the future, but I don't want to be in a position where we're standing still until they do.

Republicans have a long way to go with youth, but we have lots of work to do too.

UPDATE: A Josh Marshall summation of Palin's comment last night in her speech makes it crystal clear why Republicans aren't successful with young voters.

Palin: Community service is for losers and freaks.

Well, Palin's speech was the best of the night, but that's not saying much.

Palin gave a decent speech, but the problem was its sarcasm and its nasty tone. MSNBC actually made it onto the floor with the delegates (they surprisingly were not harmed at all) and began interviewing some people who were enamored by the spectacle of an Alaskan hockey mom ripping Barack Obama to shreds in her nasally accent.

But no matter what Pat Buchanan thinks, appealing to the Republican delegates, to the Republican base (read: the same 27% that support President Bush) is not going to win you an election. Yes, the speech was exactly what was needed in order to get 27 out of every 100 Americans fired up; unfortunately for Palin, McCain, and the GOP, I think just as many, if not more, are now leaning in Obama's direction.

When we look at the bit about community organizing ("I guess a small-town mayor is sort of like a 'community organizer,' except that you have actual responsibilities."), yes, it got a big reaction from the Republican faithful. But isn't this arguing against the social responsibility community organizers like Harriet Tubman and Martin Luther King, Jr. exemplified? I'm not saying it's a surprise that Palin or any Republican would use that language or tone; what I am saying is that Mr. Independent Voter, sick of politics as usual, and listening to this speech is not going to be taken with Ms. Palin's nasty jabs (even if it is in an Alaskan accent).

Yes, I think Palin was effective in shoring up the base tonight. But the problem for the McCain campaign is that she probably was just as effective at pushing those leaners even harder toward Barack Obama and Joe Biden.

(And I must ask -- how LAME is this convention??)

Wonkette just reported on the RNC's new "Barack Book"

Which Wonkette says

Since John McCain cannot appeal to America’s Youth in any demonstrable way, he has to rely on the famously hip and “with it” RNC to awaken the young voters’ elan vital. And what do the children like this millennium? The Facebook, of course! And, perchance, would there were a way to use New Yorker Satire to mock Barry Hussein with a Facebook spinoff, on the Internet? One might call it the “BarackBook”! Let’s explore the RNC’s ingenius new “BarackBook,” and possibly not kill ourselves in the process.

Oy...

I'm heading out shortly to tape for GritTV with Laura Flanders. We're doing a one-hour panel on the youth vote and a half-hour segment on Youth to Power. Be back online this afternoon.

• At Campus Politico, Ben Adler notes that summer break is putting a crimp in plans to register and organize students.
• At AlterNet, Courtney Martin talks about growing up a Millennial and how race and gender play differently on the campaign trail for younger voters.
• Republicans have a new blog dedicated to reaching "Generation Next" online. It involves crayons.
• Salon notes rising youth turnout, and while they are still skeptical, admit that young voters could be a factor in November.
• Barack Obama has 1 million supporters on Facebook.
• The "American Dream" as our parents knew it is dead, argues Anya Kamenetz, but she's got some suggestions on what a new American Dream might look like. Long live the American Dream!

Yesterday in USA Today, Republican operative David Frum published an Op-Ed acknowledging the Republican Party's huge loss of support from young voters, and outlining a four-point plan to recapture the youth vote and revive the days of Reagan and Bush Sr.

Frum gets a few things right. Millennials are the most anti-Republican age group in the electorate, that position is a response to the failures of the Bush Administration to adequately address any number of social, economic, and geopolitical problems, the dominance of Christian conservatives and their culture war values on choice and GLBT rights also plays a part, as does the fact that the Millennial generation is the most diverse, tolerant generation in history and the Republican Party is not at all diverse or tolerant.

But Frum is smoking something if he thinks his four-point plan can turn things around for the GOP.

Three of his proposals amount to nothing more than putting a kinder, gentler face on policies that a majority of youth roundly reject. I see little room for a pro-environment, pro-choice, multilateralist generation that believes in the power and obligation of government to protect and provide opportunity for its citizens to embrace a unilateral foreign policy, green washing environmental policy or a more compassionate anti-choice agenda.

But one recommendation sticks out among the rest and it deserves closer scrutiny.

Think Social Security taxes, not income taxes.

Today's young voters are paying much more in Social Security taxes than in income taxes — and contributing much more into Social Security than they will ever see out of it.

Republicans took a beating on the Social Security issue in 2005. But the issue is not going away. And Barack Obama's solution — taxing more income for Social Security — is neither workable nor popular. Personal accounts offer hope for personal wealth to a generation that is increasingly anxious about its economic future. With a relatively small subsidy — $300 per year for workers earning less than $40,000 — a revived Republican personal account plan could guarantee that every American worker would retire a millionaire, even if they never earn more in their lives than minimum wage.

Republicans will always face overwhelming disadvantages among blacks and Hispanics. President Bush's attempts to woo Hispanics via lax immigration policies disastrously backfired, alienating white Republicans without achieving gains among Hispanics.

But we can talk to young blacks and Hispanics as young people, who share economic interests with an entire generation of overtaxed young workers, regardless of race.

This is a common narrative heard not just among conservatives, who use it as their supposed "Ace in the hole" when talking to or about young voters, but also among progressives. During my book tour this question has come up a number of times. Yesterday at the Roosevelt Institution conference, Andrea Batista Schlesinger, the Executive Director of the Drum Major Institute, made reference to an alleged conservative view of Social Security reform among Millennials. I myself have fallen into the trap of believing that young people consider Social Security broken and privatization as the most viable option for "fixing" it.

After extensive conversations with some fellow youth leaders this morning, and a little bit of reading, I no longer believe that to be the case.

Back in 2005, the last time that this issue came up, Rock the Vote teamed up with the AARP to poll the electorate on the issue. Contrary to popular belief, they found that most young people did not support Social Security privatization if it entailed the dismantling of other parts of the social safety net:

Most Americans in the 18 to 39 age group, for example, say that they would flat-out oppose the accounts if, for example, it means that cuts to their guaranteed Social Security benefits would be so severe that they could not make up the difference with private accounts (70 percent say they would oppose) or that diverting some Social Security payroll taxes means "massive new federal debt in order to pay current benefits" (63 percent say they would oppose).

PEW found similar results at the time, and also noted that the more young people knew about the details of privatization, the less likely they were to support it.

A number of young activists wrote about the subject at the time. Dana Goldstein, then of Campus Progress, actually debated a pro-privatization student and found that the pro-privatization student group, Students for Saving Social Security, was little more than an astroturf group.

At the time, Matt Singer, now of Forward Montana, and Heather McGhee, who is now working on Demos's Better Deal Conference, also wrote critiques of the supposed youth support for social security privatization.

Lest you think that my outdated statistics from 2005 are no longer relevant, let's remember that in 2005, a number of Gen Xers were still in the 18 - 29 catagory (and they made up a majority of the 18 - 36 cohort). Gen Xers have consistently been far more conservative than Millennials. If anything, these numbers have likely seen a vast improvement. Again, Rock the Vote's poll data can provide some help here.

In February of 2008, Rock the Vote released a new poll of young voters (18 - 29) (pdf). When asked what their top concerns were for the country, only 2% responsed that Social Security was one of their largest concerns. 0% of African Americans agreed that Social Security was a major problem, and only 5% of Hispanics. Now granted, there are margin of error issues in these numbers, but the point is, the numbers are so small that it is hard to see how this could turn out to be the Republican's "Ace in the Hole" to win back young voters.

At best, what we have in Social Security is the one issue in which we may actually have to engage the Republicans in serious debate among young voters. But research shows that once young voters become educated as to the details, and the consequences, of privatization, they readily abandon the concept. Considering the conditions of the stock market recently, this is a debate I'm more than willing to have.

I'm off to the land of South Carolina to wittness the primary before I embark on a quick Find Rudy Campaign. Why you might ask am I looking for Rudy... well... has anyone really seen him lately? I mean other than the great state of Florida. So I'm going to Florida to find Rudy.

Again... you're shaking your head... See, Rudy is actually one of only TWO republican candidates that have a youth section on their websites. One of course is Ron Paul. So, first I want to see what the crowds are like at his events - are there young people? Do they seem engaged? Do they feel like they are missing out without the whole Chuck Norris thing? Why did Rudy feel compelled to connect with young voters? All questions I'll try to get answers to.

Speaking of the GOP.... Jane Flemming Kleeb from YVP tipped me off to Jason Mattera. Jason is from the Young Americas Foundation - which gets young people into wacko right wing policies. Yeah... I know... I'm totally a partisan hack, but Jason has a few good points here. 1. Young people aren't conservative. 2. The GOP doesn't do youth outreach.... hardly at all. 3. Young conservatives are more likely to be involved in church not campaigns. 4. Reagan is dead and gone. Its true. He is.

Ew... don't you just need a shower after that?! I wish the GOP super good luck on their adventures attracting young voters. And while I hope those young voters take one look and come running the other way to my big happy partisan party, I have to say once again that any outreach to young voters... is good outreach. Even when they're evil? Yes, even when they're evil, because they are showing you that you are important... and lets face it... you are.

Ok.. moving on... Hillary Clinton launched a youth focused national tour this week titled Our Voices, Our Future.

"The Clinton campaign today launched the “Our Voice, Our Future Tour,” a two-week tour to encourage young voters to support Hillary and make their voices heard. The tour builds on and expands Hillblazers, the campaign’s youth mobilization program. Through visits to high schools, colleges and young professional events, Chelsea Clinton, Members of Congress, and prominent Hillary backers will reach out to young people and inspire and mobilize support for the campaign. New supporters will be encouraged to engage their social networks in support of Hillary.

“Young people have always been a voice for change. Throughout my campaign, I’ve heard students and young professionals speak about the challenges we face and the solutions they’d like to see, from an education policy that makes college affordable to a health care policy that provides quality care to all Americans,” said Clinton. “Young Americans are thinking about our future and making their voices heard during this election, and I am listening, and I’ll be sure to continue to listen in the White House.”

When I asked OK YD president Mandy Winton about it she was enthusiastic

"Sen Clinton will be able to take her message to young voters who will be pivotal in the outcome of this historic election. Hillary brings real solutions to problems our generation is facing. From rising costs for higher education to the environment, Senator Clinton will bring real change and solutions for a brighter future for all Americans," she said

While I applaud the effort for the same reason that I champion Jason's antics, I worry that for her its too little too late. If young voters don't come out for her and she does become the nominee, I wonder if that will reduce her enthusiasm for young voters in the general. I could be jumping to conclusions, but its a fear that I think all of us face ... going BACK to the sad scary world where politicians didn't know we mattered....

And finally Senator John Edwards will be the second candidate to participate in the town hall style forum hosted by the Student Association for Voter Empowerment (SAVE) today (Friday) at the Columbia Metropolitan Convention Center in Columbia, South Carolina.

The event will mark the second in a series that SAVE is hosting with Democratic and Republican Presidential Candidates. “The gap between politicians and young people is too wide,” said Matthew Segal, the executive director of SAVE. “The purpose of our forum is to show politicians that young people care and to show young people that politicians are accessible and listening. I am pleased that John Edwards recognizes that youth are a crucial component of the electorate who require the same respect, attention and consideration that older voting blocs receive.”

This comes about after BraveNewFilms's MeetThePrez did an interview with Sen. Edwards asking him why he thought young voters mattered.

SAVE's townhall will be going on around the time the Senator's recent interview with Tyra Banks will be aired. See clips here and here.

Senator Clinton appeared earlier, she and Tyra discussed Clinton's first date with Bill, text messaging, and headbands. Obama also appeared earlier this year. You can see clips from him revealing his first date experience here.

Hey - say what you will about Tyra, but she gets them to answer some personal questions, and she's much nicer than Tim Russert.

Happy South Carolina Primary to everybody!