2009 election

Ballot boxes all over the country felt pretty lonely on Tuesday.
Sure, they had election workers tending to them and making sure ballots were fully stocked. And, of course, older voters predictably made their way to the polls. But young people were largely missing on Tuesday.

In Iowa City and in several key elections all across the country, the youth turnout was abysmal.

One year ago, youth — those aged 18-29 — fueled the election of the nation’s first black president.

Beginning with the Iowa caucuses, young people not only voted in greater numbers, they volunteered, took off school to work on the campaign, and donated money.

Before 2008, how many candidates created Facebook pages or sent out important political information via text message? Now every candidate running for political office — whether for governor or dogcatcher — has a Facebook page, a website, and would love to get your cell-phone number. In 2008, youth were an absolutely critical component, a major piece to the puzzle in the election of Barack Obama.
Young people transformed politics.

One year later, we have to ask ourselves, “What happened?” It’s not only Iowa City student precincts that performed poorly. Youth turnout barely registered in New Jersey and student-saturated Virginia. There are some locally and nationally who will look at Tuesday’s results and argue that students are simply apathetic. To them, 2008 was an aberration — no Obama to vote for, no youth turnout.

It’s easy to make such an argument, but it’s too simplistic and not entirely correct. Yes, too many students are apathetic. Many are uninterested and disengaged from politics. Youth turnout since 2004 has been increasing and in 2009 there were several young candidates elected to local office.

The truth is that in many instances young people are engaged. Yet, it’s also true that youth are too often are completely absent when they don’t feel a direct connection to an issue. And it’s true that in elections that don’t spike a high level of interest and excitement, young people sometimes don’t bother to vote.

While Iowa City’s City Council elections are nonpartisan, a lack of youth turnout contributed to Republican victories in Virginia and New Jersey. Democrats are increasingly reliant on young voters and youth turnout. Not only did Obama win the youth vote by a nearly 3 to 1 margin, youth made up a greater share of the overall electorate in 2008. When young people don’t vote, it’s more difficult for Democrats to win.

According to available exit poll data, 18-29 year olds were only 10 percent of all voters in Virginia’s gubernatorial race. In 2008, youth made up 21 percent of the electorate. In 2008, Obama received 60 percent of the youth vote in Virginia and became the first Democrat to carry Virginia since 1964. In 2009, the Democratic candidate, Creigh Deeds, received 44 percent of the youth vote. Deeds actually lost voters under 30 to the Republican candidate, Bob McDonnell.

While Deeds was far from perfect, his campaign never made young voters a priority. The result: anemic youth turnout in Virginia and a defeat. You don’t have to act like Obama, talk like him, or even look like him to inspire young voters. You do, however, have to talk to youth, ask youth for their votes, and give them a reason to vote for you.

There’s no excuse for the lack of student turnout in Tuesday’s City Council election. With two students on the ballot, student turnout should have been greater.

But let’s be careful not to give up on young voters in 2010.
For Democratic candidates, youth turnout will be critical to their success. And candidates running in 2010 who want youth to turn out have to go out and make a compelling case for them to do so.

This article originally appeared in The Daily Iowan on November 5th. The Daily Iowan is the student newspaper at the University of Iowa. The author Simeon Talley is a columnist for the paper.

Rachel Hoff of the Weekly Standard posted a gloating piece and was tweeting up a story about her new belief that young voters are now Republicans after the Virginia elections.

"The young people who were the driving force of the Obama campaign stayed home in 2009. Claims that President Obama won a generation of young Americans to the Democratic Party were vastly exaggerated. The power of Obamamania, it seems, was personality politics -- not an actual commitment to the Democratic Party or principles.

Perhaps more amazing and disappointingly under-reported by the media is the fact that 18-29 year olds in Virginia voted for Bob McDonnell over the Democrat 54% to 44%. McDonnell proved that a dynamic candidate with the right ideas, an active youth outreach program, and strategic use of new media technologies, Republican candidates can win the youth vote."

Similarly, Charlie Cook's analysis of Tuesday's election included the following assumption:

"We knew that the young and minority voters who had never cast a ballot before they did for Barack Obama last year were very unlikely to show up at the polls this year or next."

First, while Rachel is right to congratulate McDonnell for his campaign's youth outreach, I hardly think it has anything to do with young voters having gone to the GOP.

Young people prefer progressive ideas, they reject the traditional party structure and tend to identify as more independent. They have much more progressive values. McDonnell's campaign focused on things like infrastructure, energy, and education. He did youth outreach. I don't know if Deeds did, but the consistent narrative around the Deeds campaign was that he wasn't really for anything. The additional narrative I hear is that VA isn't that Democratic.

This doesn't mean young voters have gone GOP, it means that when you put forth the effort to get young voters, you speak to their issues, and you get out the vote you get a good result. Further, when you don't have a strong Democrat at the top of the ticket but you have a strong Republican at the top of the ticket those young Republicans or those young conservative voters turn out. From the numbers I've seen the students at Liberty University could have turned out and made the margin of victory for McDonnell.

To respond to Mr. Cook, I completely understand the misunderstanding. I will say that most of the smartest political operatives know nothing about young voters, its unique to find people who understand how the youth vote works. I know all of the experts and Mr. Cook isn't one of them.

From what I understand about the turnout from the Virginia Election specifically compared to 2009 there was 1/3 of the turnout in 09 compared to 08. Is Mr. Cook really going to say that 2/3 of the Virginia electorate in 2008 was young and minority voters? Really? Come on... In the off season you see a drop off, its normal. When you don't have an inspiring candidate you get an uninspiring result. Sorry Deeds... no offense.

What we saw in 2006 was an uptick in the youth turnout when compared to other midterms. 2004 saw an increase and 2008 even larger than that. If the DCCC and the DSCC wants to see an increase in youth turnout consistent with 2006 they have to work for it. 2006 was a great year that had a consistent message with a Congressional plan that included the needs of the Millennial Generation within its top 10 bills they intended to pass when Democrats won back Congress. If Democrats can continue the same inspiration, provide a reasonable plan for legislation that youth want to see, and do the proper outreach to young people through campaigns you'll get a good turnout.

As Kevin posted Wednesday, amid all of the GOP wins in VA and NJ there were some pretty powerful successes in young elected officials at the municipal level across the country, and some progressive ordinances.

The moral of the story continues to be that young voters will turn out if they are graced with the same outreach as older voters. That is, if you want them to turn out. Progressive candidates can win if they work to engage young voters in their district that connect to progressive issues. As a partisan hack my advice to the other side is to be more conservative and embrace the teabaggers.

On the heals of the Young Invincibles conference and on the morning of the Better Deal conference, Politico has a bright shiny piece about young voters for the Virginia and New Jersey races coming up in the next month.

Democrats, it seems, are concerned about young people who are characteristically less unexuberant about these upcoming elections. They remark that this could mean a bad election for those candidates hoping to "ride the wave" of an Obama victory from last November.

"A robust youth turnout could potentially turn the tide for Virginia Democratic gubernatorial candidate Creigh Deeds (pictured above) and New Jersey Gov. Jon Corzine. Corzine is only 1 percentage point behind Republican Chris Christie, according to a recent Public Policy Polling survey, and Rasmussen Reports labels Deeds as trailing opponent Bob McDonnell by 7 points. Both men have unleashed a college campus blitz in recent weeks, hoping student voters will give them the bump they need to inch past their opponents.

Young voters between the ages of 18 and 29 supported Obama in Virginia and New Jersey by 60 percent and 67 percent, respectively. Obama carried New Jersey by a whopping 15 points and became the first Democrat in 44 years to carry Virginia.

In New Jersey, about 377,000 of the 560,000 young voters who showed up at the polls supported Obama. In Virginia, about 373,000 out of 621,000 young voters backed Obama.

But some young Democrats say that energy surge has begun to dissipate and student political involvement for the 2009 races has returned to normal — before the Obama phenomenon seemed to transfix young voters."

What is "normal"? Do they mean inactive? And what does that tell people who don't do the proper outreach to the youth community for an election? How many millions of dollars did the Obama campaign spend on youth outreach, online outreach, and peer to peer contact?? Is the ratio comparable when looking at the state races in NJ and VA? If not - I believe they will indeed see the decrease in "enthusiasm" they estimate. Which will ultimately perpetuate the stereotype that "young people only came out for Obama."

I've said it before... I'll say it again... if you build it... they will come. If you ask them, they will vote. If you do the outreach you'll reap the rewards.