50 State Strategy

Another week and more stories about OFA 2.0 continue to trickle out, offering a smattering of new information, and often even more questions. Since how OFA 2.0 plays out may in large part decide how the Democratic Party engages (or rather, begins to engage) young voters, I thought it might be good to compile what we now know and the questions that are still unanswered.

What We Know

• OFA 2.0 will be housed in the DNC and not run as an independent entity.
• Tim Kaine will be a figurehead/fundraiser at the DNC (so praise from YDA and CDA for his pick seems fairly premature), while the day-to-day operations will be run by Jennifer Dillon O'Malley.
• OFA 2.0 (now Organizing for America) will in turn be run by Mitch Stewart and Jeremy Bird.

What the Rumor Mill Says

• The 50 State Strategy will continue, albeit in an altered form.
• OFA 2.0 will aim to have a $75 million budget.

Open Questions

• Dillon O'Malley is a bit of a wild card when it comes to the youth vote. She ran Iowa for Edwards, who did poorly with the youth but also was one of the few candidates to not question the voting rights of local students. She later did battleground work for Obama so she must at least have some positive feelings about youth engagement, but how that will translate at the DNC is unclear.
• Ditto Bird and Stewart, who worked in battleground states for Obama. How will they incorporate youth outreach into OFA's work?
• Where is Students for Barack Obama and Generation Obama in all of this? Considering all the props given to young voters by President Obama and (DNC) Chairman Tim Kaine, you would think that there would be at least some mention of how the youth element of the campaign will roll into all of this. The lack of information about youth engagement is peculiar. My fear is that such engagement work will be completely outsourced to USA Service, the independent entity that is getting spun out of the Obama campaign.

Greg Sargent at the Plum Line has some more questions that I think are relevant:

* How will this group do its fundraising? With the economic crisis expected to take a big toll on fundraising by the Dem party committees, will this new group’s fundraising siphon off needed funds from Dem operations focused on 2010?

* Is the White House going to do any meaningful blog outreach? Or will all such efforts be run from the DNC? Who will be the main blog outreach person?

* How is this new group going to interact with the White House and the administration’s political communications shop?

* How aggressively will this new machine target Congressional Democrats who are resistant to this or that aspect of Obama’s agenda?

* How can a campaign-like organization such as this one function in an environment where there’s no concrete end date, such as there is in a political race, and no single focus, such as a candidate?

While President Obama's inauguration was an obvious sign this week that the country will be getting more progressive in the coming years, there was some quiet foreshadowing accompanying the festivities that bore witness to just how progressive the nation can be.

In the 2008 CIRP (Cooperative Institutional Research Program) Freshman Survey, an annual survey of the nation's incoming college students administered by the Higher Education Research Institute at UCLA, respondents identified themselves as "liberals" at a rate not seen in several decades. But, as we know, they're not sitting on the political sidelines -- far from it. This group of freshmen is more politically engaged than any other freshman class in the last 40 years.

From the survey's website:

College freshman [sic] are more politically engaged today than at any point during the last 40 years, with 89.5 percent reporting that they frequently or occasionally discussed politics in the last year, according to UCLA's annual survey of the nation's entering students at four-year institutions.

The portion of incoming freshmen who frequently discussed politics in the last year - 35.6 percent - surpasses the 33.6 percent level recorded in 1968, itself a 40-year high mark of student political engagement. The 2008 level was also higher than in other recent presidential election years, including 1992 (29.7 percent), when Bill Clinton was elected, the survey found.

[...]

An increase was also seen in the proportion of students who characterize themselves as liberal, which reached its highest level in 35 years in 2008, at 31.0 percent. The percentage of incoming students who characterize themselves as politically middle-of-the-road, however, has seen a steady decline and in 2008 reached an all-time low of 43.3 percent, roughly the same percentage as in 1970. One in five students (20.7 percent) identified themselves as conservative in 2008, down from 23.1 percent in 2007.

These numbers seem to indicate that parties are headed toward another golden age. The "party period" in American history sets the standard:

The period from 1840 to 1890 has been labeled "the party period" and "the golden age of parties" because the major political parties (Democrats and Whigs until the mid-1850s, then Democrats and Republicans) were the strongest they have been in American history. Party leaders used patronage and campaign practices that aroused partisan enthusiasm to gain wide membership and keep them loyal and active. It worked. Voter turnout during this period was the highest in American history: between 70 and 80 percent for presidential elections and sometimes higher in state and local contests.

Throughout history, we've learned that increased polarization leads to increased participation. While this particular survey only includes college students, history has proven the survey's accuracy in representing political trends over the years. And so, with polarization and engagement up big among the young people questioned in this survey, political participation should stay sky-high for quite some time, given polarization's connection with participation and the stickiness of youth voting habits.

However, we can't solely rely on trends to be successful at shaping the future electorate. And this is where Tim Kaine's chairmanship becomes so important. The "Party Period" described above was crafted by political machines, or local parties on steroids. In order to cultivate the partisanship that breeds participation, Tip O'Neill's localism was channeled from the future. Community picnics, socials, and rallies were prevalent, all organized by the local party. Politics invaded many areas of everyday life; many citizens couldn't avoid it even if they wanted to -- and they didn't. Howard Dean's 50 State Strategy, while certainly not a machine, made the Democratic Party more tangible to people. Suddenly Democrats were being locally organized everywhere, and whether citizens agreed with them or not, they couldn't keep these newcomers from increasing the amount of political rhetoric and debate in their communities. Consequently, many more people were forced to process political ideas, leading to some sort of political identification that wouldn't have been there prior to Dean's chairmanship.

With the party four years into a transformational strategy and with a titanic generation sympathizing with liberalism at a record rate, the stage is set for the Democratic Party to define politics for a generation. But the party needs to milk this trend for all that it's worth. Dean's localism should be strengthened, incorporating increasing numbers of people into the party by becoming socially active, whether it's through volunteer work, sponsoring community events, maintaining a presence at as many small-town fairs and parades as possible, and of course, continuing to allocate dollars to regional parties that atrophied during the last third of the 20th Century.

Finally, Democrats (especially the Obama administration) need to avoid at all costs the idea that youth should be relegated to service; youth should be heavily involved in the party's strategic planning and day-to-day operations. More on that to come soon.

Tim Kaine, the governor of Virginia and President-elect Obama's choice to be Chairman of the Democratic National Committee, released a YouTube video on Friday of him answering questions sent in from all over the country. I thought I'd share the video, and then take a bit to point out a few interesting answers.

Kaine gives young voters some recognition at about 6:35 in. While he's quick to include "first-time voters" in his answer, Kaine explains that the Democratic outreach efforts have been especially successful over the last couple years, due to Howard Dean and Obama. Dean's 50 State Strategy led Democrats into deserted territory, reintroducing the party to some Americans who got used to seeing the GOP as the only option. Kaine noted that Obama's campaign built on this by raising efficacy among potential voters -- each voter's donation or time spent volunteering mattered, and he used whatever tool he could to send that message. With that in mind, Kaine explains that he wants to bring Obama's message of engagement to voters, but with governance in mind.

Hopefully this means that Kaine will be incorporating even more technology into the day-to-day operations of the Democratic Party, in order to attract more and more young voters. I'm a bit concerned that Kaine was so quick to lump young voters in with "first-time voters." I'd like to hear more of Kaine's plan to mobilize young Americans.

About 19:34 in, Kaine answers a question asking for simple things the questioner can do to help. Kaine notes that the first thing they can do is "pitch in and help your neighbor," which made me think of Democrats Work's suggestion for the DNC to reorganize around the idea of service to others. Kaine's answer revolves around "communal responsibility," as the governor points out that many non-profit organizations are experiencing difficulty getting donations in these hard times.

If Kaine means what he says, infusing the party with a service-focused theme would be a great move. With the current state of the economy, the exhaustive list of volunteers the Obama campaign was able to collect this summer and fall, and the coming-of-age of service-loving Millennials, Kaine is in a position to establish and strengthen bonds with both newer, older, and younger voters. The political benefits would be outstanding, but more importantly, the Democratic Party would be tangibly giving something to Americans, not just asking for money or time on its own behalf.

Kaine speaks more about the 50 State Strategy at 23:00, saying that he will continue the strategy, while conceding that it may not look the same, as he and the DNC try to improve on Dean's efforts.

Finally, Kaine answers a young questioner asking how to "get started" in politics. Kaine repeatedly notes that everything starts with "a desire to serve others," explaining that that's what made him leave his job as a civil rights lawyer to pursue politics -- more people to serve.

I applaud Kaine's use of YouTube in answering these questions, and I hope it continues. I hope that Kaine will put much of what he says in this video into action, and that the Democratic Party will continue and broaden their efforts toward engaging every American.

Any thoughts/comments?

Via Marc Ambinder, I found this memo (attached below) from Cornell Belcher - pollster for the Obama campaign and the DNC - to Howard Dean. The memo describes the arc of Dean's tenure as Chairman of the DNC, noting how the political landscape has changed, how the Democrats' new "pluralist majority" arose, and what the DNC must do in the coming years to solidify those gains.

Belcher identifies three main trends behind the Democrats rise to power in 2006 and 2008:

• Democrats eroded the Republican brand on key issues (culture of corruption). This was especially potent in 2006.
• Democrats competed more broadly and successfully in moderate and Republican areas - aka the 50 State Strategy.
• Democrats performed better among a range of demographic groups, notably in communities of color and among youth.

I want to spend the rest of this post focusing on the third item on this list. With a new Democratic Party Chairman taking the reins at the DNC, we have an opportunity to remake how the Party itself engages young people. At this point, that outreach is limited to a severely underfunded College Democrats operation (now facing stiff competition from Students for Barack Obama), a growing, but limited involvement of young people within the party structure itself, and no real mandate to the states to engage youth locally.

As Belcher's memo documents, youth support for the Democratic party - particularly among young people of color who make up roughly 40% of the Millennials - surged this year. Even among young white voters there were significant gains made. However, these new votes primarily benefited Obama in 2008 (emphasis mine):

The surge among new voters of color was incredible. Thirty-eight (38) percent of our new electorate was either Hispanic or African American. It is becoming increasingly clear that the key to sustaining and growing our Democratic majority coalition lies with younger and more diverse voters who are clearly trying to turn the page. Younger white voters are far more open to supporting Democrats than their parents (whites under age 35 broke for the Democratic House candidate by +14 points in our polling), but Democrats must work hard to fully bring home these voters who primarily surged in support of Obama. Our post election poll data shows that Democrats down the ballot left a good number of younger votes on the table as 20 percent of voters under age 35 dropped off after casting a presidential ballot rather than voting for a House candidate. These younger and browner surge voters are, by and large, Obama‘s right now, not necessarily the Democratic Party‘s. If Democrats are to strengthen our majority coalition going into the off year, we will clearly need to reach and engage these voters with some party persuasion. Again, the Party must continue to aggressively build in the off year—the time to let up on the 50 state strategy is not now. We must expand upon it with a particular youth and minority focus.

As we've all seen, the youth numbers this year are amazing, but that 20% downballot drop-off is staggering. Imagine how many close House and state legislative races we left on the table, and what the political map might look like today if Obama had bigger coattails among youth?

Belcher does not see loyalty to the Democratic Party among these newly engaged youth as fait accompli. It's going to take work to convert Obama supporters into Democratic Party supporters. He also correctly notes that young voters are far more persuadable than older voters, to which I would add that it is also cheaper to persuade younger voters, making youth outreach/engagement much more attractive than outreach to older groups from a pure cost/benefit standpoint.

Younger white voters were more secular in their values and closer to the middle on election issues than older white voters (Figure 5). This presents a key opportunity for Democrats, as this younger group will be more likely to side with Democrats on faith vs. secular issues. However, the younger group is to the center on issues, and could swing in either direction on the issues in future elections. The Party must look to specifically build here among these younger whites. Working to move this younger group of voters toward the Democrat end of the issues spectrum should be a strategic focus in our off year work to solidify them for Democrats for the long term.

Middle age white voters were more compelled by the Republican positions on the issues than their younger counterparts. Although senior whites tilted slightly toward the Republicans on the issues, they were much more compelled by religious values than the other age groups. This makes older whites a real tough get unless we continue to undermine Republicans arguments that have largely defined the values playing field.

At the end of his memo, Belcher recommends that the incoming chairman increase resources for the 50 State Strategy and provide a mandate for that strategy to focus in part on youth. I couldn't agree more. Indeed, this is exactly what a number of youth within the party - at the DNC Youth Council, Young Voter PAC, YDA and us here at Future Majority - have been saying for years. However, I would go even further than Belcher. He's right that long-term party building requires a greater focus on youth outreach. But the most effective way to do that will be to make youth engagement part of the structure and strategy of not only the DNC, as Belcher suggests, but also the party committees and state parties. The party committees wield enormous influence in how campaigns are run, and outreach to youth at the local level has to come from the state party and it has to be 24/7/365. It can't come from a national organization parachuting in during the last 8 weeks of an election.

Obama will not be on the ballot in 2010 - or in many future elections - and we need to decrease that 20% ballot drop-off and solidify our gains among Millennials. I hope Governor Kaine, Executive Director O'Malley Dillon, and other incoming senior staff at the DNC heed Belcher's advice.

The DNC is currently asking supporters to welcome Chairman Kaine to the DNC and send him your questions. I recommend that everyone encourage Chairman Kaine to read the Belcher memo, and ask if he will beef up the 50 State Strategy and include a mandate for engaging youth and young people of color.

Its funny this blog would pop up - I was just talking to my boss today about the ways in which the electoral map is changing because the DNC implemented the 50 State Strategy rather than the previous isolationist philosophy to GOTV in urban areas and traditional democratic strong holds.

Dean's 50 State Strategy built the foundation that was prime for a democratic presidential candidate to capitalize on. With Obama as the presumed nominee its no surprise that his campaign is moving into general election mode with its own.

The Political News blog reports on a recent conference call the Obama campaign did in attempts to feed Wright obsessed reporters the 50 State voter registration drive, to no avail.

The blog goes on to talk about stats from fivethirtyeight.com and the extent to which Obama's youth following and the insane youth turnout will help push him to victory.

"Just as he did with African-Americans, Poblano used his regression model and simulation engine to examine how increases in turnout among two other crucial demographics -- 18-24 year-olds and Latino voters -- would affect Obama’s electoral prospects.

While under 50 percent of both these groups voted in 2004, their participation is expected to improve significantly this year. Young voters are more enthusiastic than ever. Meanwhile, efforts to mobilize the Latino population have so far proved very successful this primary season.

Poblano found that increasing the youth vote by 25 percent would give Obama 16 additional electoral votes and boost his chance of beating McCain by nearly 7 percent (assuming that this group breaks 70-30 towards Obama):

While 18-24 year-olds are spread rather evenly across all 50 states, Poblano points to Wisconsin, Iowa, and Minnesota as states with traditions of high youth turnout. His baseline currently has them all in Obama’s column. But if young voters flock to the polls come November – as they’re expected to – these three states could end up far out of McCain’s reach."

This is great info for Obama, but I think it also proves what we've assumed for a long time that Obama is a stronger top of the ticket candidate that can filter down ballot to local races if coordinated with aggressive state party programs. I think it also bodes well for some of the young candidates we have on the ballot like Scott Kleeb in Nebraska, Andrew Rice in Oklahoma, and Don Betts in Kansas.

They are also all younger than their opponents, that's for sure. In fact, one thing is for certain... they are all younger than John McCain. Here are some other things that are also younger than John McCain....

Matt Bai's new book, The Argument: Bloggers, Billionaires, and the Battle to Remake Democratic Politics hit the shelves this week. The buzz about this book has been pretty heavy, as Bai is known for writing some of the better political pieces in the New York Times Magazine in recent years, and he's been something of a fixture in the new progressive movement, appearing at Yearly Kos (both years) and tagging along at Drinking Liberally's and other events.

Over at AlterNet, Don Hazen rips the book to shreds, basically calling Bai a shill for Clintonism and the DC insider class in opposition to which the blogosphere and broader netroots have arisen. This is the book people are going to be talking about for the next few months, and even Hazen admits that it provides valuable history on the last 4 years in Democratic politics (particularly Dean's 50 State Strategy and the rise of the Democracy Alliance).

My copy is in the mail. I'll be looking forward to seeing if Hazen's review holds up.

There has been some talk around here about the value of Howard’s 50 State Strategy that gets candidates to run in all offices

“Not only is this the best way of distributing the party’s message, but it ensures the engagement of the youth that is so vital to the party’s long-term health and vitality.” Says Craig a poster on FM. “People that want to write off the South or any other part of this country bother me. By doing this, we’re telling young people to stay at home, sit on their rear ends, and allow the government to do whatever it wants. By doing this, we validate apathy.”

I couldn’t agree more. I am on vacation this week back to the homeland to visit family and friends for my birthday week – yes it’s a whole week – and it prompted me to really think about how things have changed in terms of the way we do outreach with Dean’s 50 State Strategy, how effective it is, and how it impacts the up and coming voters.