Democracy Corps

We're running out of ways to say it. But some poll results released by Democracy Corps this week yield perilous signs for the GOP's relevance to today's youth. The poll analysis diagnoses the problem.

Republicans struggle among young people for a very specific reason. At a time when young people are paying close attention to politics and when so many are struggling economically, even more so than older generations, the Republicans simply do not speak to the reality of their lives or to the issues important to them. This perception stands in marked contrast to their reaction to Barack Obama. Nationally, voters’ opinion of the President may have cooled slightly—and inevitably—in recent weeks, but among younger voters, he has never been more popular. They strongly support his economic policy and are confident that he will make a difference in their lives.

As Winograd and Hais might say it, the GOP is stuck in the idealist era, when the nation could afford to entertain a divided government. In an idealist era, "bipartisanship" means finding the lowest common denominator between two ideological extremes. With the way Washington is, that process takes a while. And with voters handing the executive branch to one party and the legislative branch to the other over decades of time, they put their seal of approval on this arrangement. Until now.

But in 2008, America moved to a new political era and everything changed, including the meaning of bipartisanship, as the greatest economic crisis since the Great Depression pushed the country into another civic era. In this environment, the American public, which had preferred divided government during the previous idealist era, now endorses unified government. A CNN survey conducted immediately after the 2008 general election indicated that a clear majority (59%) favored the idea of the Democrats controlling both elective branches of the federal government. Only 38 percent said that one-party rule was a bad idea. The public used a clearly civic era rationale to explain its changed attitude, telling Wall Street Journal pollsters that when the same party controls both the presidency and Congress, "it will end gridlock in Washington and things will get done." A recent CBS/New York Times survey confirmed the desire for decisive action across the institutional lines of a newly unified government. A clear majority (56%) wants President Obama to pursue the policies he promised in the campaign rather than working in a bipartisan way with Republicans (39%). By contrast, an even larger majority (79%) wants congressional Republicans to work in a bipartisan way with the President rather than sticking to Republican policies.

What do young voters have to do with this? Well, they form the backbone of the new civic era. From a Winograd and Hais Washington Post op-ed piece in February 2008:

Unlike the young baby boomers, millennials want to strengthen the political system, not tear it down. According to a study last year by the Pew Research Center, most millennials (64 percent) disagree that the federal government is wasteful and inefficient, while most older Americans (58 percent) think it is. A 2006 survey by Frank N. Magid Associates indicated that millennials are more likely than older generations to believe that politicians care what people think and are more concerned with the good of the country than of their political party.

It also showed that millennials, more than their elders, believe that U.S. political institutions will deal effectively with concerns the nation will face in the future.

Given the public's disapproval of both Congress and President Bush, we're going to need all the optimism and change we can generate to overcome those challenges. Luckily, the millennial generation, like its GI generation forebears, is arriving right on time to deliver just what America needs.

In the Democracy Corps poll, we see that today's youth strongly agree with the president on issues, most importantly, his economic stimulus plan.

Young people support the stimulus package convincingly (68 percent favor, 20 percent oppose) and in much higher numbers than older Americans. Young people doing well financially are only marginally less likely to support the plan (65 percent favor) than young people overall and even among Republicans, only 47 percent oppose.

Young people believe the stimulus plan will work, not only in improving the economy overall, but also in improving their own lives in particular. A 71 percent majority describe themselves as confident the stimulus plan will work overall, 68 percent are confident it will improve their own situation, including 68 percent of those who describe their personal economic situation as just fair or poor.

We also learn that youth, like never before, are closely watching the events in Washington.

Young people are paying attention to Washington. Nearly half (45 percent) of young people watched the President’s prime time address on February 24th and 75 percent describe themselves as following the Obama administration closely. Even among young people who are not registered to vote, a 60 percent majority say they have watched the Administration carefully.

And what are Millennials, who strongly support President Obama, watching so closely?

The above is a perfect example of a Republican Party that is stuck on sideshows from the idealist era, and can't problem-solve or make a legitimate effort to pursue the common good in its politics. No figures were offered in their budget proposal; instead, the GOP leadership attacked the other side.

As long as young people and their opinions are ignored, no amount of tweeting or other desperate attempts to use technology will matter. The GOP treats youth as irrelevant, and young voters consequently view Republicans the same way.

Since May of this year, Democracy Corps/Greenberg Quinlan Rosner Research have released 7 polls focusing on young voters. This weekend, they released the final poll in their "Youth for the Win" series.

Here are the major findings from what is undoubtedly the last poll of young voters before Election Day:

• Obama has never posted a higher margin among young people (now 62 – 27 percent Obama). He continues to draw exceptional favorability ratings, while John McCain and Sarah Palin have never been less popular.
• John Kerry won the youth vote (54 – 45 percent), but lost white people under 30 (44 - 55 percent). Obama leads 51 – 38 percent among white youth, up from 43 – 42 percent in the late summer.
• Young people are also confident about the outcome. A 71 percent majority believe Barack Obama will win the election; even among Republicans, 39 percent predict an Obama victory, just 53 percent believe McCain will win.
• Young people’s commitment to vote continues to grow. Now 67 percent describe their likelihood of voting as a “10” on a ten-point scale, the highest number we recorded this year and fully 18 points higher than it was in the summer.
• What is most remarkable is the faith young people evince in Obama’s ability to turn things around in this country. By better than a 2:1 margin, young people believe that, even with everything stacked against him, Obama can change the direction of the country. To state the obvious, the post-election period will be one of very high expectations.

Nothing too unexpected here. I wonder about the excitement factor among McCain's youth supporters, and if they will show up for what looks like a blowout. I guess we'll have to wait until tomorrow night to find out.

Democracy Corps released a new Youth for the Win poll analysis today. As in previous surveys, youth engagement continues to increase and is now higher than ever, particularly among young African Americans and non-college youth:

A 70 percent majority of young people agree they are more involved in this election than in previous elections, up from 54 percent two months ago. Among Democrats, this number jumped from 63 percent to 75 percent. As dramatic as the rise among African Americans (from 59 percent to 77 percent). Nearly a third of young people say they plan on getting involved, urging people to vote on Election Day. No doubt, this is overstated, but it is an important indicator of young people’s commitment. It is also striking exactly who makes this commitment. The number is higher among community college students than four-year college students (33 percent and 27 percent, respectively). The number jumps to 41 percent among African Americans and 30 percent among Hispanic voters.

As the poll analysis goes on to state, it's no longer a question of whether or not young people will turnout in record numbers. They will. The question we all need to examine now is how far down the ballot will that engagement carry?

All told, 20 percent among young people who are likely voters say they will only vote for President and just 62 percent commit to finish the entire ballot. In the web sample, the problem grows worse. Less than half (47 percent) of minority voters interviewed on the web say they will finish the ballot. Among all young people of color, just 57 percent say they will complete the ballot.

In other words, 20 percent of the two most progressive voting blocks in the electorate may not participate in down ballot elections, dampening the size of the prospective Democratic wave in congressional and state legislative races.

So what can we do to lessen that gap and maximize youth turnout down ballot? Democracy Corps offers a few messages and strategies. First, a look at what young people are thinking about on the issues:

A 56 percent majority of young people are afraid for their country’s future. Just 34 percent are optimistic about their country’s future. Even more so than older voters, young people believe we are on the brink of financial collapse. By a 62 to 28 percent margin, young people argue “this financial crisis puts us on the edge of a crash like the Great Depression.” A Democracy Corps battleground survey taken two weeks ago, just 44 percent of likely voters believed we were on the brink of a Great Depression.1 Not surprisingly, both big banks (20 percent positive, 39 percent negative) and Wall Street (24 percent positive, 38 percent negative) suffer some in the opinion of young people.

In particular it is younger, non-white youth who most need to be targeted with down-ballot campaigns:

So what can a congressional or state legislative campaign do to increase down-ballot turnout among youth? Don't be cute or try to hard to be hip. Coopt the Obama "brand" and target them with serious messages addressing the importance of building a solid team to bring about real change in our government, from the top down.

In terms of messaging, groups committed to turn out young people need to keep in mind how serious young people are taking this election. Often times, get out the vote efforts aimed at attracting the attention of young people try to be to hip or proactive; these efforts can come off as patronizing in the best of times; in the worst of times, they are close to insulting. To state it plainly, young people believe the country is in crisis, particularly in terms of the economy. They are in a serious mood and are voting and participating in record numbers because they believe the country needs change.

Here are the two specific down-ballot messages that Democracy Corps found most resonated with young people:

• Barack Obama can't change Washington alone; he will need a team behind him to support his policies in Congress and the Senate to get anything done.
• This nation faces a crisis; we are fighting two wars, the economy is in shambles, and our financial institutions are melting down; now more than ever, the citizens of this country need to take on Washington and make our voices heard at all levels of government, not just president.

It's important to note that these were not necessarily partisan messages. Young people did not respond favorably to partisan appeals or attempts to coerce them into straight-party voting. These messages need to be serious, and appeal to a desire to come together and solve the nation's problems. Young people respond to pragmatism, not partisanship.

One final note - the DCorps poll analysis suggested that young people, in addition to rejecting straight-ticket voting, responded favorably to messages and campaigns that provide the maximum amount of information - links, voter guides, etc. - so that young people could make up their own minds before casting a ballot. Campaigns that provide such information, in conjunction with the types of messages listed above, should have the greatest success in getting out the youth vote in their down-ballot race.

Democracy Corps just released another poll in their “Youth for the Win” series. Not a lot of time (I'm at the RNC), so here's a brief look at the highlights of their report:

The Numbers:
Obama still maintains a significant and stable lead over McCain in this most recent poll at 57 - 29 percent. Obama lost some support among young white voters, but McCain is tanking among young independents.

Most interesting - Nader and Bob Barr are pulling 11% of the support from Independents, or 2% each overall from both McCain and Obama.

Issues
The big news coming out of this survey is the astounding degree to which economic concerns are at the forefront of young voters' minds.

We teach children in this country to reach for their dreams, well here's a look at the dreams of young america:

What does it say when the #1 life goal of young voters is paying off their debt?

Here's how that plays out at the political level:

The good news is that most young voters believe that one of the best ways to accomplish these goals is to elect Barack Obama:

Here are Democracy Corps recommendations for making that a reality:

• Progressives need to continue to nurture young people’s optimism about the possibility of change. The approach needs to be aspirational in the broad sense that things can be—will be—different and also make plain that absent the right outcome, absent the election of Barack Obama, real change is unlikely at best.
• At the same time, the approach needs to be grounded in the economic reality of this constituency. It is impossible to overestimate the importance of the economy in engaging young people in this election. Obviously, almost every segment in the country will identify the economy as their leading concern. But for young people— many struggling with entry-level jobs with no benefits, many struggling with a crushing burden of debt, most struggling with a single income—the Bush economy has been particularly cruel. The approach here should be relentlessly pragmatic, stripped of flowery rhetoric and, most important, convey a sense of immediacy and urgency.
• Progressives cannot assume young people are immune from the same dynamics that are stirring the rest of the electorate. As noted, we see some defection among white Democrats and McCain outperforming Obama among partisans for the first time in this survey. (An Obama surge among white Independents disguises the impact). Obama will win this cohort decisively, but the margin and the turnout remain in question.
• Progressives need to continue to better define John McCain in this election cycle, particularly after his convention. If anything, the new polling in this period, including this project, underscores the need to draw sharper contrasts.

Methodological note: As usual, I want to note that while Democracy Corps are partisans, they also have one of the best methodologies out there when it comes to polling young voters. This poll comes from a sample of 600 young people (18 – 29) reached by cell phone, the web, and traditional landlines. As such, it accounts for “cell only” voters and is likely much more accurate than the polls produced by traditional polling firms and media outlets.

Democracy Corps just released another poll in their Youth for the Win series, this time examining the state of the race between Obama and McCain, and testing messages that most resonate with young voters. Their conclusion: contrary to other assertions, Obama's lead among young voters is holding steady and the economy remains the top issue for young voters and the most successful way to maintain their support.

First let's look at the numbers. Earlier this week, Zogby released a "shocker" of a poll showing that Obama had lost 16 points and McCain had gained 20 among young voters, closing the gap to a 49 - 38% Obama lead among youth. At the time, I suggested that Zogby's sample size was much too small and that the numbers were still likely close to those we saw in teh 2006 election.

Today's Democracy Corps Poll - which has a much larger sample size and focused solely on young voters using a combination of landline, online and cellphone polling - confirms what I wrote: Obama maintains a stable 60 - 33% lead among young voters. For comparison, Kerry won the youth vote 54 - 45%, and in 2006 Democrats took the youth vote 60 - 38%. So not only is Obama's youth vote support holding stable overall, it is actually higher than Democratic support in any recent election.

Obama's support is softening among white, fiscally solvent youth. In that group he and McCain are statistically tied. However Obama has offset those losses by increasing his margin among young African Americans and young voters under financial strain. Among those financially burdened youth, Obama is actually outperforming the Democratic expectations:

The poll notes that the economy remains the #1 issue among young voters, but notes that the current debate - focused on the mortgage crisis, oil, trade and taxes - does not adequately address the economic concerns of young people, who are worried about gas prices, health care and medical bills, student debt, and entry level jobs. Addressing these issues is the best way to gain traction among young people (or shore up support), but also the achilles heel that could lower support for either candidate.

Democracy Corps notes that McCain's favorability ratings among youth are rising, in part fueled by worry over the economy and high gas prices. The gas issue is so strong among young voters, that it is even overcoming environmental concerns and more young people are becoming receptive to McCain's messages about drilling. While McCain has hammered Obama on these issues over the last month, Obama has yet to fight back. Absent such attacks, Obama is allowing McCain to make some inroads and define the issue.

Democracy Corps tested a number of messages - both positive messages on the economy from Obama, and attack messages to be directed against McCain - that it recommends organizers use to define McCain and shore up Obama's support:

Today Democracy Corps released a new targeting analysis of the Presidential race. The research looks at where the Obama campaign is outperforming Democrats from 2004 and 2006 and where he is under-performing.

The image above shows that voters under 30 are supporting Obama at higher levels than supported John Kerry or Democrats in 2006. This is definitely good news for the Democratic Party. As we have talked about a lot before, young voters are moving towards the Democratic Party in large numbers.

I am a little surprised by the difference between voters under 30 and white voters under 30. Their survey shows white young voters statistically tied, where with all young voters Obama has a huge lead.

There's some interesting stuff in this report, so check it out and leave your thoughts in the comments.

I've long worried that John McCain could be, as Arianna Huffington put it yesterday at the Personal Democracy Forum conference, a "Trojan Horse" candidate for the GOP. His perceived status as a maverick and his cultural savvy has long inoculated him from the troubles plaguing the Republican Party and boosted his image among young voters. Out of all the GOP contenders, he seemed most capable of reviving the Republican brand among a generation trending heavily Democratic.

According to a new poll by Democracy Corps, that image of McCain the Maverick has shattered.

Since Democracy Corps' last survey in April, John McCain's favorable ratings among young voters has dropped from 34 to 30%, and his unfavorable ratings have jumped over ten points, rising from 37 to 49%. Two of the supposedly biggest advantages a McCain candidacy brings to the GOP - his popularity with independents and his "liberal" views on immigration reform - also took serious hits in recent months. Among independent young voters, McCain's unfavorable rating nearly doubled, rising from 27% in April to 49% in June, and among Hispanics his unfavorable rating is now a whopping 70%. Apparently McCain's "principled" stand on immigration during the primaries was not enough to pull Hispanics back towards the Republican Party.

According to the report, McCain's favorable/unforable numbers now mirror those of the Republican Party, which has seen it's brand collapse among young voters in the past two years:

In a head to head match-up against Barack Obama, McCain loses the youth vote 66 - 33% among likely voters, a larger margin than Democrats enjoyed during the wave election of 2006.

What happened to McCain the Maverick? How did his highly-cultivated independent brand crash so fast?

Democracy Corps points to the transformation of McCain into "McSame," a typical politician tied to the failures of the Bush Presidency and the Republican Party. That notion has gained great traction in recent months, in particular around the issues of Iraq and the economy, the two most pressing issues in the eyes of young voters and two areas in which McCain is most tightly tied to the policies of the Bush Administration and the GOP.

According to Democracy Corps, when McCain's policies on Iraq and the economy are laid before young voters, along with potential consequences for young Americans, a majority of young voters (~60 - 65%) express serious to very serious doubts about McCain's candidacy. As long as McCain holds policy positions simlar to Bush and the GOP on those two major policy issues, and as long as Democrats, bloggers, and activists continue to explain the consequences of those policies to young voters, it's hard to see how McCain can recover his maverick status and gain ground among young voters.

Democracy Corps has released the latest edition in their "Youth for the Win" young voter polls: The Rising Wave Among Young People. The poll tracks youth involvement and measures youth support for the two candidates. Most of the information deals with McCain and the continued collapse of the Republican brand among young people. I'll have a separate post on that later today. Right now I want to focus on Democracy Corps' findings re: Senator Obama.

Democracy Corps notes that Senator Obama is expanding his lead over McCain among young voters and even exceeding the levels of youth support Democrats enjoyed during the 2006 wave elections. Significantly, he is also quickly consolidating the Democratic base and pulling in most of Clinton's core youth support:

Barack Obama now holds a 60 to 33 percent lead over John McCain with young people in this country. Among young voters most likely to vote, this lead jumps to 66 – 33 percent. Historically, these margins exceed Kerry’s showing in 2004 (54 – 45 percent) and echo the young people’s revolt against the Republican Congress in 2006 (60 – 38 percent). In claiming the nomination, Obama managed to consolidate Democrats and improve his showing among voting blocs that, at the national level, often preferred Hillary Clinton.

In an incredibly short amount of time, Obama has made double digit gains among unmarried women and Hispanics, and his favorability ratings have seen similar jumps. Democracy Corps notes that he still has ground to gain among young, married white women and "older" (24 - 29) white women, but beyond that he is quickly approaching the ceiling in terms of consolidating Democratic youth support. After that, any gains among young voters will be made among independents or Republicans dissatisfied with McCain (a growing group, as we'll see later).

So much for the divided Democratic Party.

Just before the Obama campaign announced their intention to defund the left, Democracy Corps issues the second part of their new youth polling series: Youth for the Win! The report examines the youth electorate, identifies the opportunities and challenges facing Democrats in "maximizing the youth vote" in 2008, and calls on Democrats to do everything in our power to not let this demographic advantage go to waste.

There are four main takeaways from the poll:

1. Democrats maintain large and growing leads among young voters at the polls
2. Obama has the most support among all remaining candidates (even McCain), and he actually polls almost as well as the "Generic" Democrat numbers.
3. Winning over Clinton supporters will be a challenge for Obama
4. McCain has lower youth support, but is not yet identified with the Republican brand among young voters.

Affirming the obvious, the report shows rising youth support at the polls for Democrats, with most support this cycle going towards Senator Obama:

Obama will face two challenges in maximizing youth turnout this year. The first will be within his own party. Clinton supporters are far more likely to declare that they will not vote in November if Sen. Clinton is not the nominee:

Now, Obama has won the youth vote in most states by a landslide, but in a year of record youth turnout, Clintons numbers are still very very respectable. That's a lot of lost votes and that means Obama will have much shorter coattail for down-ballot candidates to ride. Bridges will need to be built/mended among Clinton's youth supporters in the coming months OR their activism will need to be channeled into forms of engagement aside from the Obama campaign (e.g. youth groups working at the state and local level).

The second challenge Obama faces in maximizing the youth vote for Democratic advantage in November comes from McCain. Polling shows that among young voters, McCain is not yet associated with the tarnished Republican brand. He's not popular by any means, but he should be far more unpopular considering his support for Republican policies.

With some serious help from the media, McCain has an image that distances him from traditional Republicans, and -- I've said it before, but I'll say it again -- he's skilled at playing the culture card to increase that "independent" image. He had a great turn on the Daily Show just last week in which Stewart let him slide on every major issue, and he'll be hosting Saturday Night Live this weekend. Now, that might seem like so much pandering to young people, but it's the type of pandering that most high-level Republicans are loathe to do.

The Obama campaign is going to need to tie McCain tightly to the Republican brand among young voters. Knowing their preference to "not go negative," I'm a little afraid that they won't be up to this task. Yet another reason why outside organizations can be a useful piece of progressive infrastructure.

Democracy Corp has issued a new poll of young voters: Youth for the Win (pd). The polls, conducted over landline, cellphone, and via the internet, treads a lot of old ground and I won't rehash it all here, but I do want to pull out a few interesting bits that put hard numbers to current memes about youth engagement and mark out distinctions that have thus far been overlooked.

First, some new stats on increased participation:

In early 2008 Democratic primaries, young people increased their participation by an astonishing 88 percent. Republican involvement also improved, though far less dramatically (by 7 percent).

This is great news for the Democrats. As the following graph illustrates, this lopsided increase in participation translates into a huge partisan advantage at the ballot box. The Democrats now have an advantage among young voters not seen in years, and potentially not since 1992:

The poll provides some interesting context as to what criteria these new voters are using to determine how to cast their ballots. To a much greater degree than among Obama supporters, it appears that Clinton supporters are engaging in identity politics. That makes sense. These are Millennials, and they are supposed to be a generation that rejects the identity politics and culture war frames of the past. Add on to that the fact that Sen. Obama is making a specific appeal to leave behind identity politics and it stands to reason that his supporters would not describe their support or engagement in those terms.

Even so, I'm a little surprised to see the numbers so high on the part of Sen. Clinton's supporters. Perhaps Clinton's supporters are those few of the younger generation who side with older feminists on the issue of the need to elect a woman President? If so, this seems to turn on its head the meme that Obama voters are casting their ballots based on the person(ality), not the issues. To the contrary, it would appear as if it is Clinton voters who are most likely to fit that description.

It's worth noting that this is the second poll to suggest that the cult of personality meme dogging Obama supporters is off-base. A Rock the Vote showed similar findings disputing that claim back in February.

I've said this before, but in light of yesterday's post about Facebook "Jumping the Shark," I thought it worth saying yet again - social networks are not the killer app for reaching young people, and the Democracy Corps poll underscores this. Yes, social networks can enable young people to do amazing things and compete in the political marketplace against much bigger players, but they are not a mass-marketing tool for for campaigns to reach young people.

When it comes to reaching young people online, it's important to remember that "internet" does not = "social networks." The internet is a pretty big place, and major content providers like Google News, CNN, MSNBC, and other mainstream news sites get a lot of traffic from young people. Attaining earned media coverage on those sites - and making sure that coverage is at times youth-oriented - can go a long way in spreading a campaign message among Millennials.

Where social networks come into play is in organizing die-hard supporters and leveraging the most gain out of their involvement (see: 2006 immigrant rallies; Students for Barack Obama). As Colin Delaney of ePolitics notes, this is not a mass media strategy. It is a much more time and resource intensive peer-to-peer strategy. It is just as important, and at times intensely more powerful than a mass-media strategy, but it is a distinct tool in the organizers toolbox and should be regarded as such.

Finally, the poll makes clear that while the Internet is a very important tool and public information space, it is still just one of a few places where campaigns can reach a mass-market youth audience. It is not the only one by any means. Local and national television still play a significant role in informing and influencing young people, which means that campaigns need to talk about youth issues and to young people at their events on the stump. That kind of earned media gets carried on broadcast and cable networks where it is watched by a significant number young people who will then talk to their friends.