early voting

HAVA = FAIL. The Help America Vote Act was passed after 2000 when we saw some of the most insane voting problems in Florida that required the US Supreme Court to decide who the President would be. So the new President decided to put forth millions of dollars to help that NEVER happen again... Guess what... it didn't help.

According to a New York Times piece the exact same number of people that had problems in 2000 matched the number of people who had problems in 2008. A whopping 4-5 million voters.

"An additional two million to four million registered voters — or 1 percent to 2 percent of the eligible electorate — were “discouraged” from voting due to administrative hassles, like long lines and voter identification requirements, the study found."

This is according to an extensive study by 150 universities lead by MIT during October and November which surveyed 33,000 eligible voters. The number one problem involved administrative errors. Not voter fraud.... not identification... not a failure to prove who the voter is or isn't.... clerical error. Oops!

This comes at an interesting time because 3 states this week are pushing the Voter ID Bill - claiming that we have to have an ID to prevent fraud. Texas, Oklahoma, and Georgia Republicans proposed legislation, leaving my mind to wonder.... is there a widespread rampant persistent itchy outbreak of voter fraud I haven't heard about going on?

The only voter fraud I heard about is Ann Coulter....

Mike posted the press release SAVE sent out yesterday talking about the problems in Texas and Oklahoma - and despite the save we made with the amendment to allow student ID's be used in Oklahoma - there are still thousands of Oklahomans that stand to be disenfranchised if Governor Brad Henry doesn't veto the bill.

One of the most amazing things was the mention for the record about the student ID portion by Rep. Joe Dorman and the profound floor speech by my buddy Rep. Ryan Kiesel. Listen live below:

In the end, however... it passed.

Texas is just as bad. In a release from the Texas Democratic Party it appears that a male member of the State Senate (Troy Fraser) decided to make sexest jokes rather than answer questions about the voter ID bill.

"I have trouble hearing women's voices," he said when fellow Senator Wendy Davis asked a question during the floor debate about SB 362.

"Sen. Fraser’s voter suppression legislation threatens to take Texas back to the days when some citizens had a voice in the election process and others, including women, were silenced,” said Texas Democratic Party Spokeswoman Kirsten Gray.  “Sen. Fraser and his fellow Texas Senate Republicans need to move past their selective hearing and listen to what this bill really is: A sad and divisive echo from the past."

The release also says that the proposed Texas Voter ID Bill would disenfranchise countless Texas women:

 

• Of all Americans without a license:
• Women are more than twice as likely as men not to have a drivers’ license.
• One of every five senior women does not have a license.
• Over 70% are women.
• There is ample anecdotal evidence that suggest factors like name changes related to marriage and divorce make it less likely a woman will have a current name and address on a photo ID that matches the name and address on the voter list.

The Times piece quotes Sen. Schumer who said that the number of people prevented from voting in 2008 actually exceeded the popular-vote margin in the previous two presidential elections - way to put it into perspective.

"Little has been done, however, to remove barriers to registration and absentee voting.

"Registration issues were for 2008 what machine problems were for the 2000 election,” said Stephen Ansolabehere, a political science professor at Harvard and the study’s lead author. . ."

The study also found that as the popularity of absentee voting had increased, so too had the challenges voters faced in getting those ballots, most often because the requested ballot arrived too late, or the information on the ballot request did not correspond to information in the voter rolls."

I think the increase of vote by mail might have something to do with the inconvenience of voting on Tuesday ... (insert shameless support for Why Tuesday here).

There is a great need for perfecting voting systems so we reduce the number of people that are disenfranchised - but the voter ID laws just cause more problems rather than solving them.

There was a lot of interest and activism around early voting this year - including among youth organizers. Today, Democracy Corps released a study analyzing the composition of the early voting electorate, which comprised 1/3 of all ballots cast in 2008:

Thanks to recent reforms to state voting laws, a high level of voter interest in the presidential election, and concerted campaign efforts, early voting took on new and greater prominence in 2008. Current estimates suggest that nearly one third of ballots were cast early in 2008, up from approximately 23 percent in 2004. The early vote had a distinct impact on the race. It shaped campaign strategy and tactics, allowed the candidates (especially Barack Obama) to lock in a sizable portion of their strong support, and left John McCain facing a significant deficit to make up on Election Day.

What they found, was that early voting was exercised disproportionately by women and African Americans, Obama voters more than McCain voters, and, most relevant to us, older voters instead of younger voters:

Traditionally, age has been strongly correlated with absentee voting, as older voters were more likely to qualify for one of the excuses required to vote early. Within the states that still require an excuse, older voters continue to make up a very large share of the early vote: in the Democracy Corps data, 79 percent of early voters in these states were age 50 or older and 46 percent were seniors (age 65 and over).

But as we noted earlier, the overwhelming majority of the early vote now comes from no-excuse states. The early vote in those states still skews older than the overall electorate, but much less dramatically than in the excuse-required states: 64 percent in this data set were over 50 and 32 percent were seniors. Because so much of the early vote comes from no excuse states, the age distribution for the early vote overall tracks these numbers closely. The following chart compares the age breakdowns of early and non-early voters.

They also provide a graph, that is a little unclear. As far as I can tell, the gray bars indicate both election-day voters and non-voters. That's why the numbers add up to more than 100%.

This isn't definitive, but it definitely looks to me like a case for youth groups focusing their voting reform efforts on Automatic Universal Registration and Election Day Registration rather than an expansion of early voting laws.

Here's another update on youth early voting/absentee turnout in Florida. You may recall that state newspapers were reporting that youth were underperforming. Well, the Young Democrats continue to check turnout against the voter file and here's what they're showing:

2008 Early Voting: 627,398 (so far)
2004 Early Voting: 419,664 (total)

That's more than a 50% increase over the last cycle . . . I'm still waiting for all the numbers to be in before I count my chickens, but this is not too shabby. And it is a far cry from what the media is reporting.

Just a few days left until the election, and with the results looking increasingly obvious, the media is sifting around for a new angle on the story. One of those angles seems to be that young voters are underperforming at early voting locations. In particular, I'll point you to The Politico's Jonathan Martin, who says that young voters are underperforming in Florida, and Marc Ambinder of The Atlantic, who highlights this story noting that in Nevada young voters are turning out at a disappointing 14%:

While turnout statewide was nearly 25 percent through Sunday, it was just 20 percent among Hispanic voters, 14 percent among voters under 30 and 15 percent among those who didn't vote in the last three elections, according to an analysis of state early voting records through Sunday prepared by America Votes, an organization that works to mobilize voters.

It's completely unclear as to whether that means that 14% of all eligible youth have voted so far (which I think sounds pretty damn good), or that young voters have thus far made up 14% of the total early voters in the state (which is lower than I might hope, but by no means alarmingly so).

Before we all get worked up about this, I want to issue a big "calm down" to reporters, activists, and campaigns tracking the youth vote. Anecdotal evidence I'm hearing from people in the field is that early voting on campuses/among students is high, but that young professionals aren't showing up. Others suggest that young people actually prefer to vote on election day in person rather to at an early voting location or via absentee ballot.

Before we go putting the cart before the horse and declaring the youth vote a failure before we even get to E-Day, let's take a look at what we actually know to be true:

• We know that youth turnout rose in 2004, rose again in 2006, and was double, triple, and in some states quadruple previous turnout during the primaries.
• We know that Senator Obama and independent youth organizations have worked tirelessly to register new, young voters this cycle.
• Most importantly, we know that when young people are registered to vote, they turnout in numbers that are comparable to older registered voters. In 2004, 81.6% of all registered youth actually cast their ballot.

At this point, anything beyond that is pure speculation. Like I said yesterday, let's wait until all the ballots are cast before we start pre-emptively sizing up youth turnout and creating false narratives that will need to be overturned in just a few days.

Comedian Ben Gleib explains why YOU should VOTE EARLY.

"Don't listen to the man, YOU'RE the man!"

Check out declareyourself . com/whywait for more info.

Update: Here's another take from Stella, an organizer with Swing Semester:

Ohioans are very skeptical of voting. In 04 many of their votes were not counted. I know all of these things are designed to help with that. But in their minds it is harder to convince people to vote early. In the end it is still an absentee ballot…

I personally did register before the deadline. And I could have gone and voted early but chose not to. I want to vote on election day. As many other democrats do. While we were at the vp debate watch party last week the Obama campaign was trying to get "die hard" dems to vote early… And they were all saying no… I think that we are all so scared that someone is trying to take our vote away. And with all of the lawsuits that were filed leading up to golden week it created more tension around it. I think in the end we will get them to vote it is just going to be harder to get them to vote early…

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The AP is running a story reporting low turnout in Ohio during early voting. The numbers:

As of Monday evening with polling sites still open, projections were that about 4,000 to 5,000 voters in the state's four largest counties would have taken advantage of the policy, which survived multiple court challenges.

Elections officials were surprised by the low turnout.

"With all the hoopla we were anticipating a whole lot more," said Steve Harsman, the elections director in Montgomery County, home to Dayton.

Overall, between 20,000 and 25,000 people were expected to have voted early in person in the four counties, beginning Sept. 30. The four counties include the state's largest urban areas — Cleveland, Cincinnati, Toledo and Dayton — and the focal points of campaign get-out-the-vote efforts.

The Columbus Dispatch had more specific youth numbers to add to this equation:

Of the 9,280 people who had cast absentee ballots in person as of Monday, 3 percent were registered Republicans and 39 percent were Democrats, records show. The rest were unaffiliated.

Of the 2,097 people who also registered to vote before casting an absentee ballot in Franklin County, two-thirds were younger than 34 and nearly 80 percent were from Columbus.

At first blush, that's disappointing news. Not the least because the Obama campaign and independent youth organizers were pushing early voting in the state. I confess that I was a little shocked when I read the story until I talked to Tony Cani, the Political Director of the Young Democrats. Here's what Tony had to say about the situation on the ground:

I really don't think this is that big of a surprise. There is only one voting site per county open - this isn't like early voting in many other states that allows you go to a number of community polling places to cast a ballot.

So, for example, in Franklin County the polling place is in downtown Columbus, an area that has very few residents and has a very high vacancy rate even for businesses. Why would someone schlep down there to vote? It isn't' really easier or more convenient. This takes away the primary argument organizers use to get people to vote early.

I didn't realize that there were so few polling locations. That's certainly a huge obstacle to face in scaling up participation into significant numbers. It seems like those promoting early voting in the state did a poor job at managing expectations here. Though, to be honest, they were in a bit of a Catch-22. They had to talk up the potential of early voting in order to recruit volunteers and drum up interest among potential voters, but there just wasn't enough time to really make it work.

This is a pretty substance-heavy Quick Hits. Any one of the items here should merit a full blog post. There's just not enough time, damn it! Not enough time . . .

• CNN Money has an almost great segment on how the economic downturn may be driving young voters to the polls. My only quibble - in the final line the reporter claims that in the past "young people were eager to register, but not to vote." That's just not true. 80% of registered young voters actually cast a ballot on election day. Registration is the problem, not turnout. Or, as I've been saying - higher youth turnout is not about curing apathy but increasing access. (h/t Chris Kennedy of Rock the Vote)

• In the wake of GOP voter suppression efforts that have ensnared young people and veterans in Montana, Forward Montana has launched Montana Voter Suppression (.org), a website to track, report, and prevent voter suppression efforts in the state. Earlier today, the group also held a protest in front of the office of MT Rep Dennis Rehberg's office. Rehberg's chief of staff, Erik Iverson, is the Chair of Montana GOP, the group behind the voter challenges.
• Speaking of voter suppression, Nancy Scola and Allison Fine have a spectacular post over at Tech President detailing how Twitter could be used as an election protection tool.
• GQRR has a new poll out, this time of women. The results show that unmarried women, including many young women, are the key to Obama's success among that demographic. Unmarried women are supporting Obama 62 - 33%. So much for the "Palin Effect."

• In Kansas, Jim Slattery is embarking on a campus tour to drum up youth support for his Senate campaign. All down-ballot candidates should consider this if they want to ride the youth wave to its fullest. As much as we'd like to think they do, Obama's coattail don't necessarily extend all the way down the ballot.
• Veterans group IAVA issued it's congressional score card today, and John McCain earned a big fat D. The Disabled Veterans of American didn't score him much better, giving the Senator a 20% rating. So much for supporting the troops.

• Early voting begins today in Virginia, Kentucky and Georgia. If that's where you live, stop reading this and go vote!
• Next week is Ohio's "Golden Week," when you can register to vote and cast your ballot on the same day. If you want to go help out in the state next week, volunteer here.
• The National Conference on Citizenship released its Third Civic Health Index today. They also held their annual conference today (which I was supposed to attend - apologies to all for not making it down). I'll have more later, but for now, you can read another blogger's take here.
• 29-year-old Nate Willems, also a blogger, is running for State Senate in Iowa. Best of luck, Nate, and we'd love to have you here anytime to blog about the experience.
• Turns out that email is not a dying medium among today's youth afterall. (Warning, this link will take you to the most obnoxious sign-up process in history. Go at your own risk).
• Trying to wrap your head around this economic mess we now find ourselves in? Go read this article in The Nation.
• FiveThirtyEight.com notes that some folks are getting their feathers ruffled as the Obama campaign directs funds away from swag like lawn signs towards other things like field work. Oh, the horror! Hey, sounds right to me.
• Michael Moore is encouraging everyone to download his new movie, "Slacker Uprising," about his tour of colleges and universities in 2004. Moore will by live blogging on Daily Kos tonight at 11pm Eastern.
• The Swing Semester Syllabus is now online.
• The Daily Pennsylvanian has an excellent interview with Howard Dean about the role of young people in this election and remaking the Democratic Party.
• P. Diddy may be off on the sidelines, uploading crazy-ass YouTube videos every week, but celebrity-driven politics is bigger than ever. Ad Week has the skinny.
• New York State College Dems are gearing up for the election. So are a lot of College Dem chapters, but NYS keeps popping up in my Google Alerts and on blogs. They've got a much larger online footprint than other College Dem chapters, which is a good thing. That's how you get noticed. More chapters should be as active within the blogosphere.
• This is funny. A Republican candidate is crying foul over her loss in a recent primary. The crime? Her opponent registered and GOTV'd too many College Republicans. I'm sure there's a joke about eating your young in there . . .

Bumped. --Mike

I was watching the Obama speech with friends the other night...

And someone said: "Let's all go to Ohio."

By many measures, Ohio's 20 electoral votes are the clearest path to victory in 2008. Obama needs 18 more electoral votes than Kerry won in 2004. There are two other likely scenarios to win: Colorado (9) plus New Mexico (5) plus Iowa (7) for a total of 21. Or Virginia (13) plus Iowa plus New Mexico for 25. I don't mean to oversimplify here --there are lot of important states and lots of ways to win. But none is more likely than Ohio.

Next thing I knew, we had created a program called Vote Today Ohio to turn out 10,000 new and unlikely voters during Ohio's new "Golden Week" when new voters can register AND vote on the same day.

Thanks to our excellent new Secretary of State, Jennifer Brunner, Ohio recently changed its voting laws in a way that creates a 7 day window, from Sept 30 - Oct 6, where Ohio residents can register and vote early. It's the best GOTV opportunity ever created --like having seven days of Election Day Registration a month before the election.

The only problem is getting people to the polls. Unfortunately each of Ohio's 88 counties only has ONE polling place during the early voting period. So we need lots of people to take people to the polls.

Our goal with Vote Today Ohio is to recruit 100 new Ohio volunteers, and bring 100 in from out of state to bank 10,000 additional progressive votes. So far we have 30+ volunteers. We're raising money to rent vans and finding housing. Our efforts will be closely coordinated with America Votes and local progressive field organizations.

It's all hands on deck time --this election is going to be squeaky close. In 2004, Kerry lost Ohio by only 2% (119,000 votes amid massive voter suppression and dirty tricks). Meanwhile 2.3 million registered Ohioans did not cast a ballot!!

If we are able to get even 10% more progressive Ohioans to vote in 2008, Obama will likely win Ohio --and the election. We need thousands of people to help out --during Golden Vote week or whenever you're free.

Please report immediately to your nearest battleground state.

If you want to come to Ohio, write me, tell me who you are, when you want to go, and I'll hook you up: billywimsatt [at] gmail [dot] com

Here's a few resources that I found lately. They've been gathering dust in my browser since Denver. Best get them all out now before I forget or mistakenly close the tabs:

• 538.com has a great piece about early voting/vote by mail, including a list of when early voting begins in the battleground states.
• Go Vote Absentee will help you do just that.
• The Harvard Institute of Politics has their own absentee ballot guide, including a fancy flash-map interface.
• Travel For Change looks like it's an Obama-centric knock-off of Swing Semester/Driving Votes.