gop

Apologies for the light (read: no) posting today. I'm taking care of some personal stuff. Tomorrow I plan to blog about the following stories. I figure you can read them directly now and get a head start:

• Taking on the System and the Prop 8 Protests: Kos talks about his new book and how the Prop 8 demonstrations showed us 1) How demonstrations could be relevant in the 21st C; and 2) How a 26 year old from Seattle used decentralized organizing and put traditional LGBT groups to shame.
• Be + Cause Strategies discusses Obama's win and the importance of infrastructure and organizing.
• Progressive States Network tells us why, even in the wake of a national win, we should continue to strengthen our efforts at the state level.
• Next Gen GOP wants to win back the youth vote. Part I and Part II.
• Amplify Your Voice brings us word of another Millennial elected to office with a little help from Facebook.

Sen. Obama's impressive 66 - 32% margin among young voters represents the culmination of 4 years of aggressive youth outreach by progressives aimed at young voters. But it's important to remember that we pretty much ran uncontested in those years. While the conservatives have an impressive leadership pipeline in for the form of groups like the Leadership Institute, YAF, and the Heritage Foundation program, and while I think we've all thrown food at our TV when Jason Mattera's mug came into view, conservatives really didn't have much game when it came to GOTV, and they threw far less muscle into youth GOTV than we did.

That may be about to change. Some of the smartest young operatives in the Republican Party have thrown down the gauntlet, demanding that the GOP modernize and Rebuild the Party. Part of that effort includes upping the ante on young voter outreach:

2008 made one thing clear: if allowed to go unchecked, the Democrats' structural advantages, including their use of the Internet, their more than 2-to-1 advantage with young voters, their discovery of a better grassroots model -- will be as big a threat to the future of the GOP as the toxic political environment we have faced the last few years. [...]

At the same time, waiting for a political savior to materialize out of thin air is not an option. Eventually, strong new leaders will emerge. And when they do, they must inherit a party stronger than the one in its current state. Our grassroots must be stronger and more open. We must inspire young leaders to want to run for office as Republicans. [...]

A "40 Under 40" initiative. Undoing the damage to our party's brand among America's youth will take more than new slogans and hip spokespeople. It will mean making young voters the face of the Republican Party, and not just another target group with its own bulleted list of "outreach" talking points. To that end, the next Chairman should commit to a simple goal: working towards a Republican Party where at least 40% of our challenger and open seat candidates for Congress are under 40. Such a party will send a signal to all Americans that the GOP is once again the party of the future.

We can't yet be sure, but it seems likely that young McCain supporters decided to sit out this last election. If Rebuild the Party gains traction within the GOP, that might not be the case in 2010.

The Discovery Channel YouTube channel Why? Tell me Why? Addressed the question of why young voters vote the way they do and old voters vote the way they do.

Irwin Morris from the University of Maryland says these are tendencies that develop depending on the political environment. Young people have come of age in an era with unpopular Republicanism thus they are more inclined to harness those anti-republican sentiments and carry them with them throughout the course of their lives.

The same is/has been true for older voters who he said came of age in an era of anti-democratic tendencies which is why they lean more toward republicans. This might also account for the messages republicans used nearing election day about communism and socialism etc... because those were real threats that older voters faced when they were first beginning to cast ballots.

These kinds of arguments of course flopped on young voters who only know about socialism within the context of republican finger pointing and communism with regard to Cuban relations or history classes about the former Soviet Union.

With "reliable seniors" as a major voting demographic in the past, this was a good strategy, but as we saw with the new data, young voters surpassed those seniors in turnout and at least a third of the seniors voted for Obama.

My hope is that this means we are finally beyond the idea that crying "socialism" and "communist" are helpful to a campaign.

Matthew Segal from SAVE sent me this video of a debate that his organization the Student Association for Voter Empowerment had with the College Republicans three months ago. In the debate, Segal remembered that the GOP was attacking ACORN spreading the same misinformation they are today. As you can see in the short clip the allegations are thrown out there, and Segal corrects the record for what ACORN really does.

One of today's Quick Hits was a piece by Ari Melber in The Nation examining Obama's tech-savvy campaign and its operation. I thought Melber did a great job of penetrating behind the scenes to clarify how the toys and gadgets help Obama put together a one-of-a-kind grassroots organization. But Melber also succeeded at looking into the future and explaining why Obama's technological operation is so crucial to presidential politics.

We know McCain's thinking on technology from an article published in the San Francisco Chronicle this summer:

GOP presidential candidate John McCain, fundraising in the San Francisco Bay Area, one of the nation's technology capitals, acknowledged Monday that he isn't a "tech freak" or entirely comfortable with the Internet, BlackBerrys or e-mail. But he strongly disputed criticism that he is "out of the loop" as unfair.

As former head of the U.S. Senate Commerce committee, McCain said, he has been a driving force to oversee legislation that helped the Internet flourish - even as he is still learning to get comfortable with it himself.

"Am I a tech freak? No," he said in an interview Monday with The Chronicle. "And I don't like to text message because I'd rather call somebody on the telephone."

"I do understand the importance of the computer. I understand the importance of the blogs," he said.

McCain said he is well aware that technology "does drive the news. It is changing the shape of the news. ... It's changing the information age, and I've got to stay up with it."

He added, "But I am forcing myself ... let me put it this way, I am using the computer more and more every day."

Melber's closing reminds us why having a candidate who understands technology is so important to this nation:

If his strategy succeeds, all presidential politics could change. First-time voters--both this generation of the young, black or marginalized as well as future rookie cohorts--might become a constituency that candidates pursue. The long shot, if Obama wins big, is a larger electoral universe that forces Republicans to play catch-up. The party that spent decades stifling voter turnout, from illegal suppression to court-sanctioned ploys like ID requirements, could find electoral salvation depends on the ability to register its own new voters. Couple that grassroots pressure with an economic crisis stoking intense bipartisan populism, and a "new politics" might really be on the horizon.

The vision is obvious, and frankly, kind of Rovian: strike at the heart of your opponent's strengths and force them to run on something else. I love the fact that Melber pointed out the Republicans' strategy of squashing participation, because I think that it really gets to the heart of why technological development is such a Democratic issue. With technology boosting political participation and engagement all across America, we suddenly are toeing a new political landscape, one the Republicans have worked against for years. By refusing to adapt and be -- gasp! -- progressive, the GOP created an opening for someone to supply the enthusiasm, dedication, and the message to create a self-sustaining system that is immune to most "wedge" tactics, in which society is turned against itself for partisan advantage. Obama has put this vision forward, and it's paying dividends, registering unbelievable numbers of new voters this year and flooding the campaign coffers with cash. As a result, an Obama presidency might just be the tip of the iceberg for the GOP.

Some reading to supplement your weekend down time:

• The Daily Trojan's recent piece covering each candidate's youth vote operation can be found here (and yes, the fact that they think McCain has any outreach to youth points to the accuracy of the article and the competence of those interviewed. Look at this:
  

  Ann Crigler, director of the Department of Political Science and a professor of political science at USC, agreed that youth voters are targeted because they are not yet devoted to either party.

  "The youth vote is really important because it is traditionally not aligned with a party or candidate yet, so people want to get them to participate because they haven't traditionally," Crigler said. "It is easier to attract those who aren't already committed to a party."

  I don't think that's why it's important, and I don't think that's true. A recent poll in swing state Ohio, for instance, shows that Obama is preferred over McCain by a margin of 60-33 percent.

• Florida is now requiring that all potential voters have an ID in order to vote.
• What a difference having a Democratic head of elections makes in Ohio -- Secretary of State Jennifer Bruner is attempting to prevent vote caging.
• Apparently the GOP doesn't care about copyright law when their power is threatened.
• PowerVote: getting one million green youth voters to the polls.
• The 2008 presidential campaign invades college orientations.
• An excellent piece in the Cornell Daily Sun finds that McCain is in favor of cutting and running -- from the youth vote.

I’ve landed in Nashville. I’m sure I’ll be seeing some of you at the YDA conference tomorrow. For the rest of you, I’ll be live-blogging as I can depending on the WiFi access, which wasn’t all that great at the last YDA conference.

Over at The Next Right (sort of an “Open Left” for conservatives), Ethan Eilon, the Executive Director of the College Republicans is saying some smart things about young people and their relation ship to the GOP. Specifically, he’s calling on the Republican Party to wake up and start reaching out to young voters. The whole thing reads very much like stuff you heard out of Democratic youth circles 4 years ago (and still do today though people seem to be getting the message).

His advice to the party is good and will be familiar to many here: go where young people congregate (online), make an effort to promote effective youth leaders in the party. Address youth issues on the stump, etc. The piece is valuable reading for anyone in either party looking to court young voters. But he’s got two huge problems.

First is the straight up math of what we’re seeing now:

Now, I'm not naive enough to suggest that we make these changes and all of a sudden we are going to win the 18-19 vote 80/20, but we don't need to. We just need to not lose it by that margin, which is exactly what current trends, if left unchecked, will yield.

That’s really the crux of it. There’s very little chance that the Republicans will eat into Democratic gains among Millennials unless the Democrats drop youth outreach altogether and/or severely mess something up policy wise. McCain was probably the best candidate choice for Republicans to make an attempt at courting youth, but eve he won’t be enough and he’ll likely have little influence down-ticket in an environment so toxic to traditional Republicans. The GOP is now in the unenviable position of doing electoral triage for a generation. It’s not about winning anymore; it’s about losing as little (young) blood as possible.

The problem is that the Republican brand is not just tarnished – that in itself is a tough hurdle to overcome (see Democrats: National Security) – but the governing philosophies of conservatism itself are rejected by Millennials. That’s why this is more than a little wishful thinking:

We need to get very serious about making our brand more appealing to young voters, and to get young people bought into the overall concept of what this party is about: limited government and individual liberty. This is not a hard sell, but when the Democrats and their affiliates are outspending us in the demographic by 25 to 1 we are going to have an uphill battle.

Culture war issues promoted by the Republican Party restrict individual liberty (gay rights, right to choose, etc.) in ways that the multicultural, tolerant Millennials find repellent, and limited government is a failed proposition. For a generation that lived through Katrina (and exhortations from Grover Norquist to “drown the government in a bathtub), limited government fails to recognize the responsibility that a government has to its citizens to provide opportunity and security. These will not be winning talking points for reaching out to today’s youngest voters.

Finally, I would just like to point out that the 25 – 1 number cited by Eilon is highly disputable. The College Republicans had well over $20 million in expenditures over the last 4 years: dwarfing spending by the College and Young Democrats (from Open Secrets):

And while it is true that Democrats have focused far more than Republicans on GOTV in recent years, the amount of money going through the conservative leadership pipeline is about 5 – 10 times more than what equivalent progressive organizations have to work with. Campus Progress thoroughly debunked similar claims made by Young America Foundation Alum Jason Mattera earlier this year (below). There are rumors that the CRNC is nothing more than a money funnel conservatives use to direct money to other “grown up” projects, and that the College Republicans actually see little to no of their tens of millions raised/spent. So perhaps there is a grain of truth here, but if so doesn’t that just speak to the moral bankruptcy of the Republican Party?

Don't know how much I'll be posting this weekend. Playing it by ear, taking a break. Maybe do a little reading. I'm guessing y'all are doing the same. If you can't shake the political junk, this just might tide you over for the day:

• The campaign for the presidency of the College Democrats is underway. Hopefully I'll have some College Dems blogging about the race in the coming weeks and months. - Facebook
• Danah Boyd - self described Third Wave feminist - on why all this Hillary Sexism stuff is bull. - Apophenia
• Democrats Work is teaming up with General Wesley Clark for a community service project in the district of a Democrat running a tight race. Go vote on where the General will "serve." More on this later in the coming days. - Democrats Work
• Obama and "None of the Above" wins the "beer vote" this time around, according to a Rock the Vote poll. - USA Today
• McCain's courting of youth has limits. - International Herald Tribune
• Social Networks, Political Weapons - Washington Post
• DNC blunts GOP microtargeting lead. - The Politico
• I've noted this before, but these are really cool so I'll do it again. The Obama campaign has found a lot of grassroots support from graphic designers who are pumping out some awesome campaign swag. - My Barack Obama
• The RNC is running a voter-generated video contest. Winners will air during the convention. Oh yeah, and they're still using that weirdo zombie-elephant logo. - GOP Convention 2008
• Meanwhile, the FBI is attempting to infiltrate dangerous "vegan pot-luck" networks who could potentially disrupt the proceedings in Minneapolis-St. Paul. Seriously. - Boing Boing
• This is awesome. Reminds me of the old-school Nintendo days. Hat tip to Josh Levy at Tech President:

This was by far the best headline I've read this cycle. One that perfectly captures the ideology, the make up, and the candidates representing the Republican Party.

Seemingly Young-Republican Sean Scallon of the American Chronicle, is one of the major members of the media lately to notice that the GOP is losing major ground.

"I was at the Iowa Straw Poll in Ames this past summer. While out in the vast parking lots of the Hilton Coliseum that morning, holding a Ron Paul sign, I noticed all the campaign workers from the Romney and Tancredo camps riding golf carts to and from their respective tents to the parking lots.

What were these people doing I wondered? They certainly weren’t making the parking attendants happy as they were cutting through traffic.

It wasn’t until the middle of the day that I figured it out. They were transporting their elderly supporters from the parking lots to the Coliseum.

It was the proper thing to do. After all it was 96 degrees that day and very humid. No one would want grandma or grandpa to die of heat exhaustion trying to make their way across all that hot asphalt.

But it laid in stark reality the biggest problem the Republican Party is facing in 2008 and beyond.

It’s not Larry Craig. It’s not Iraq. It’s not corruption. It’s not Katrina, or religious conservatives or even immigration.

It’s age.

The GOP is literally getting older by the minute.

And that means it’s a slowly dying party."

Never mind that this is about the funnies thing I've ever read about the GOP ... but its a good real world example of what we've been seeing in polling for the last several months.