gop

Republicans just can't figure out what they want to do with young voters.

We see some momentum behind actually courting young people, which Sarah discusses in her most recent post. Conservative media outlets like Fox News, the National Review, and the Washington Examiner, are hot on Margaret Hoover's book (the great-granddaughter of Depression-inducing President Herbert Hoover), which argues that Millennials are sympathetic to the fundamental principles of conservatism and that the GOP should accordingly engage these young people. Sarah does a pretty good job of explaining why Hoover is misguided in her analysis, but the GOP establishment seems to be embracing her argument. And you know what? The civic engagement-enthusiast in me doesn't necessarily mind that; at least young people appear to be the target of some kind of outreach effort.

But while Hoover is feeling the love from conservative media, Republican officials across the country are doing everything they can to keep young people from exercising their rights as citizens. In the name of eradicating voting fraud (there are 44 one-millionths of one percent of votes impacted by voter fraud), these Republicans are actively intimidating and restricting the rights of the very same Millennials Hoover wants to attract to the Republican ranks.

The latest example? Maine Republican Party Chairman Charlie Webster, who is apparently clueless on election law.

Maine Republican Party Chairman Charlie Webster is claiming that college students who pay out-of-state tuition rates and vote in state are committing voter fraud.

At a press conference at the Maine State House, Webster gave the media a list of over 200 students -- their names redacted -- who paid out-of-state tuition rates but were registered to vote in the state.

[...]

...Webster provided absolutely zero evidence that the students -- the vast majority of whom were born in the late 80s and early 90s, based on Webster's list -- voted both in their home state and in Maine.

Webster doesn't understand that just because students are not originally from Maine does not mean that they aren't afforded the right to participate in the community where they live (provided they do not vote in their home state and in Maine). The Sun Journal, a Maine newspaper covering the story, describes it well.

According to Maine state law, students are eligible to register to vote in the municipality in which they attend school, as long as they have established residency there. There is not a period of time required for a person to establish residency. The University of Maine System has different guidelines to establish student residency. A student may only be granted in-state tuition if he or she has proven that she has established residency for reasons other than academic, regardless of the length of time that he or she has lived in Maine.

So yes, there are absolutely cases in which students, deemed as "out of state" by the University of Maine, would be legally and correctly registered to vote in Maine.

Again, all this is on top of other moves across the country to disenfranchise young people and minorities. Wisconsin Governor Scott Walker, for example, recently shepherded a law through the state legislature that would require young people to secure a photo ID in order to vote. And now he just announced the closing of 10 DMV bureaus, making it harder for young people to get those photo IDs. And it's not just a coincidence that most of these closures are happening in traditionally Democratic areas, while other DMV offices are seeing their hours extended by the governor.

Hoover might be persuading some of the Republican establishment that appealing to young voters is the trendy thing to do. But the GOP isn't about to persuade young people, who are seeing Mitt Romney-like waffling from the Grand Old Party. Are you interested in us or not? You can't have it both ways.

We've spent the last two months bringing you the astounding outreach efforts by Republicans that have been aimed at pealing off the President's strength with young voters.

It began with some guy named Ted Nugent and has continued with upper level Republican operatives like Karl Rove. Mitt Romney even released a web ad last week hitting the President on youth unemployment numbers and imploring Millennials to take a look elsewhere when deciding their vote this election season.

But this week Fox News tells us in an Op-Ed that America's Youth Have Lost Hope and Are Looking For Change. Heh heh... I see what you did there with the hope and change....

The National Review writes about Obama’s Young Ex-Fans.

"Young voters in 2008 were attracted to Obama as a symbol — no one knew exactly what he stood for, but voting for him sure did feel good. Nearly three years later, many of them are increasingly disgusted to learn that he apparently doesn’t stand for much. What’s his position again on gay marriage? On Afghanistan? On Iraq? Health care? The skyrocketing debt? They care little about having a symbolic leader when they can’t find jobs. The Hope and Change he promised have long since become a punch line."

While she's correct to say that young people are feeling a bit disgruntled right now about the President I can promise you it has nothing to do with issues like gay marriage, Afghanistan, Iraq, and health care... and maybe this is the only hope for Democrats to save the youth vote for that key "three elections in a row" gain.

The most successful advocacy community among progressives has been the LGBT community. I don't know if it has to do with campaign donors or there being a lot of LGBT staffers in the White House or if its because if there's one thing the terrorists hate more than Americans its gay Americans - but the White House has actually done OK when it comes to the DOJ saying they won't go after DOMA issues, repealing Don't Ask Don't Tell and being all equal opportunity. While there is a lot more to do - like take care of Dan Choi and all of the other soldiers discharged under DADT and repeal DOMA and other things... when it comes to LGBT issues we are further along than we would have been under John McCain and further along than we will be under any republican president.

As for the others - we're drawing down in Afghanistan, we've almost pulled out entirely in Iraq and the one shining thing the White House has done for young people was ensure the health care reform bill allowed young people to stay on their parents insurance plans longer despite the GOP opposing it and Republican Governors supporting Constitutional Amendments banning the law that gives them this access to health care.

So, I'm not sure those would be the issues the GOP should really speak to young people about ... because young voters will just laugh at you.

Portfolio.com quotes this article and the WSJ piece where Margaret Hoover is pimping her new book about Millennial Voters asking - Who Will Millennial Voters Back in 2012?

The piece cites where the President had success but where that advantage has turned into an uphill climb for connecting with young people in 2012:

Both authors make a compelling point about the potential among the under-30 set for dissatisfaction with Obama. This is a group that voted for the Democrat by a 2-1 margin over John McCain in 2008. The problem, of course, is the economy and the continuing awful employment outlook. Recent reports find that nearly one in five college graduates is out of work and that more than 17 percent of 16-to-24-year-olds who want jobs can't find them.

Ignore the rest of that article because quite honestly it cites research done from republican firms and republican polls and I'm not sure that's the most valid of data. I invite you to check out something that is a little more non-partisan from a non-profit organizations.....

Washington Examiner is back! This time not with an op-ed from Ted but one that says that Under Obama, Millennials move into the GOP column.

"The Democratic party identification edge has been reduced to 47 to 43 percent. That's a 4-point drop for Democrats and a 4-point rise for Republicans since 2008. . . . .But the 2010 numbers yielded a 52 to 45 percent Republican lead in the popular vote for the House."

It then cites a number that is questionable that focuses on young white voters who they say are fleeing the President. According to the Pew numbers that are an accumulation of several different polls taken since the 2008 election:

"In 2008 they were 51 to 40 percent Republican. In the first half of 2011 they were 56 to 35 percent Republican -- more Republican than Southern whites were three years ago."

When some in the youth movement discussed these numbers last week Morley Winograd and Mike Hais co-authors of Millennial Makeover commented that there has indeed been some up and down movement over that time period in Millennial loyalties, and Millennial identification with Democrats is down since 2008. The decline, however, is entirely registered among whites. Among African-Americans and Hispanics there has been no change. Loyalists are standing firm in their support of the President, but part time participants, if they are white, are losing some of their positive feelings toward Democrats and Obama. Like any other coalition, you do need to work it to have it vote for you, and I would add, obviously continue to vote for you, and that's where the President has had problems - particularly prior to the campaign starting again.

President Obama actually admitted this himself last week at the University of Maryland town hall when a young woman asked him where he felt he should have done better over the course of his Presidency. He said that he should have done a better job taking his case to Americans and asking for their support.

Specifically, when it comes to young voters, this was the ONLY demographic that supported the President on the health care reform battle. And the ONLY demographic that continued to support him on HCR. This would have been a great opportunity for the White House to bring in young people to be leaders and advocates to explain why HCR was important. Children, teens, and 20 year olds talking about their health struggles to their parents and grandparents is a great way to squelch the opposition. And politically it looks a heck of a lot better on TV than a bunch of angry old tea baggers. But the youth community wasn't brought in on substantiate policy discussions until the re-elect began.

The last GOP piece about young voters is yet another book review for Margaret Hoover - read more on refuting her claims that young people will join the Tea Party any day now. Hey Margaret... not gonna happen. The GOP might get some young people to buy into the more moderate wing of the party but the Tea Party is never going to see a 60%+ voting spread from young voters the way the President did in 2008. They're way too socially liberal and they actually believe that the government is a tool that can be used to do good.

Today Margaret Hoover - great-granddaughter of the first president that sent our country into a depression and former employee of the last president that sent our country into a depression, released a book saying that for the survival of the GOP they've got to hook into young voters. According to an interview with Hoover on the Washington Post's blog, she believes the magic eight ball of politics predicts an outlook that isn't so good for the GOP.

"If you vote for the same party in three successive presidential elections, she says, your political loyalties are pretty much set for life. The GOP lost the youth vote in 2004 and 2008, and may do so again in 2012 if it doesn’t break through with these voters."

Where it gets funny is that she says that in order to get young people the GOP shouldn't turn more socially liberal as some (including me) have suggested.

Her message is simple and not unlike that of the Tea Party movement, for which she has effusive praise. (“Personally I think it’s an incredible contribution to the Republican Party.”) To capture the most racially diverse, politically independent generation we have ever seen, Hoover says,”We need to shift the focus to fiscal issues.We have to talk specifically about their future.” Republicans have a convincing case to make against President Obama, she argues. “He’s taken a pass on their issues.”

Here's the thing - Hoover isn't alone in her "talk about the budget" philosophy. The incredibly attractive fake Republican Meghan McCain schools the GOP with 7 tips for Presidential Hopefuls

"...Most young voters my age don't remember Newt Gingrich's claim to fame; after all, the Clinton impeachment trial was so ‘90s.
What the Republican Party needs is a candidate unafraid to put the president up against the wall and call him out on all the damage his administration has done, especially to the economy, in the last three years."

This post is around the same time McCain appeared on MSNBC and talked about the coolness factor in Presidential candidates. Politico: You are not cooler than Obama.

Meghan McCain wants the Republican candidates running for president to stop trying to be cool. She hopes they will step away from the comfort of Fox’s Greta Van Susteren and befriend MSNBC’s Rachel Maddow. And she thinks Tim Pawlenty is kind of wimpy.
Along with a willingness to challenge the president, she wants candidates to remember that they are “not cooler than President Obama.” “No, you are not. No, seriously, you are not, not even you, Sarah Palin,” she advised. Instead, she wants a Republican to emerge as the “smart candidate, the serious candidate.”

Of Palin, McCain wrote, “If she enters the race, there will be a proverbial tsunami of media coverage for months. Don’t panic and ride it out. The cream always rises to the top and at some point she is going to have to do something other than come up with clever sound bites.”

As if Meghan and Hoover's fiscal futures aren't enough a few weeks ago I noticed a weird tweet from Lindsey Lohan who made a comment about the US Dollar saying that it will be worthless if the Fed keeps printing money. Well if you asked what a coked up rich girl knows about the fiscal responsibility of the US Government you wouldn't be wrong. It turns out Lindsey's tweet was out of character for a reason... she was paid to tweet it - though no one seems to know who paid her to tweet - maybe Ted Nugent... She later clarified that even though she was paid to tweet that she really does care about gas and food prices.

But wait - there's more. Remember Ted Nugent? It's ok I don't know who he is either....

His commentary came about a week before TV writer and Hollywood Republican Rob Long wrote a similar commentary which would have been original had that old Ted Nugent guy not said like... the exact same thing the week before.

Rather than asking young people to get involved as old man Ted instructed, Long took a rather short approach calling young people stupid for not realizing that "democrats" are financing their futures.

You know.... when I see one of these pieces I roll my eyes - but when several pieces pop up and organizations begin to discuss the solvency of pension programs and the deficit I start to look around for Pete Peterson acting as a ventriloquist while shoving a check in their back pockets.

A recent op-ed in the WSJ by republican strategist Karl Rove proves that the GOP is actually considering young voters to be a serious issue:

"The first such mistake would be forgetting that the target voters are those ready to swing away from Mr. Obama (independents, Hispanics, college educated and young voters) and those whose opposition to Mr. Obama has deepened since 2008 (seniors and working-class voters)."

I've said it before - I couldn't agree more. The GOP should go after young voters just as the Democratic Party should go after young voters. I have faith that the message of the GOP won't resonate with the GOP (much less young voters) but if you have the GOP going after youth in a hard way my hope is that the Dems will freak out and do it more.

But in a recent survey on the Millennial Generation (one of the largest sample sizes and largest surveys ever done) young people indicated that the GOP just isn't the right place for them - regardless of what Ted, Long, Meghan, and Hoover might want to believe.

When it comes to big government, Millennials are true believers. Millennials are significantly more likely to favor larger government in comparison to their older counterparts who find larger government to be a hindrance.

I would never say that young voters are always and will always be democratic voters. I think young voters are independent voters who overwhelmingly support progressive policies and are increasingly socially liberal. They reject the Tea Party despite being more fiscal conservative. They will never not ever not ever be able to agree with someone who is anti-gay, anti-women, in favor of prohibition, hates the government and the poor, just to agree with being a little more fiscally responsible. Not gonna happen. Ever. Not ..... EVER.

That said.... if Democrats don't get their collective asses in gear (pun intended) when it comes to young voters they won't show up on Election Day - for them - or anyone. Anecdotally, I heard a democratic Congresswoman who did a political meeting with the President toward the beginning of the year and told him that you just shouldn't count on young voters this election. I think this shows that if the President doesn't "count on young voters" someone else will be and it won't be in his favor. Because the young conservatives will turn out - but the young progressives will not.... because no one will have asked for their votes. As one reader pointed out - maybe the message isn't "don't count on young voters" but rather "don't take young voters for granted."

Republican researchers RK Research have launched a project around discovering why young people tend to vote more for Democrats than Republicans. In a recently released report (PDF) about their upcoming research project RK says it will be doing the survey over the course of several months and will sample 4,400 college students.

I think among the youth movement we have this conversation frequently but this research project is only looking at college students not a broad spectrum of young voters.  The RK paper says that college students only make up 18% of the electorate and as I recall less than 50% of young voters even went to college?  This survey will still be ignoring a large portion of the youth community with its findings.

"Before presenting the data, this report briefly offers three premises: First, college voters now favor the Democratic Party by a considerable margin. Second, college voters have not always been solidly Democratic. And third, college students are electorally important" (page 3)

I have a few comments on these assumptions.

First, I dispute the assumption that "college voters now favor the Democratic Party by a considerable margin."  I think young voters are less likely to support one particular party, and more likely to support a specific candidate; specifically one that is good on their issues and reaches out to ask for their vote.  Those tend to be more left leaning or center left leaning policies and candidates.

Second, the survey says youth have not always been Democratic Party voters. On page 4 it goes on to say:

"In the past ten presidential elections, the Republican Party has won the youth vote three times (1972, 1984, 1988) and has been very close in three instances (1976, 1980, and 2000). Only in 1992, 1996, 2004, and 2008 did the Republican Party lose the youth vote by substantial margins. These loses, however, represent four of the past five presidential elections"

I would never dispute the data saying that Generation X youth were more likely to be GOP or GOP leaning particularly with Reagan support.  The reason they're losing support is that Gen X is almost the anthesis of Gen Y and they're a lot smaller in number. It isn't that one party or another is losing or winning young voters - its that those same voters are growing up and becoming a different demographic. Yesterday's 18-29 year olds are not today's - by a long shot. Similarly, the policies supported by yesterday's young voters are not the policies supported by today's young voters.

Third, I agree that the GOP should try to reach out to youth - indeed BOTH parties should reach out to youth.  The argument that "the age of polical malleability, after which - political science literature shows - voting habits are likely to ermine the same" (page 8) is not merely a footnote in a polisci text book, but should be a stat to live by. The Millennial Generation is larger than the Baby Boomers by 5 million people and significantly larger than Generation X. The first party that gets them and keeps them... will have them for a long time.  When you talk about party building this is critical for long term growth.

Fellow FM reporter Karlo knows a little something about stats and data. He said just glacing at the methodology that it looked flawed. I concur. There will be 120 students surveyed at a broad spectrum of schools by grabbing them in the student unions.

"Participants are selected randomly by asking all passerby in the student center or student union if they are interested in taking a survey in exchange for a candy bar."

This is even further isolation because you're not taking into account students who are non-traditional and don't set foot on campuses. Similarly, students who walk through the student centers in general - students who STOP and talk to someone who grabs him/her is a pretty special selection of people too.

Finally, if the GOP wants to talk about how they can get young people with their policies it isn't rocket science. They have to be more centrist and stop scaring people with the "tea bagger" policies. If they want to approach young people from the right, I suggest talking to Ron Paul. Be more libertarian. Be more individual rights focused - support legalization of pot, be more pro-choice, pro-gay marriage ... not simply because you "support the lifestyle" but because the government has no business being in the bedroom business.

This is just anecdotal evidence I know from years of working in the youth movement and in politics. But RK Research already knows this information. Their website highlights that the hard lined GOP opposition to gay marriage proposes a long term problem for the Republicans. This comes on the heals of the Focus on the Family release saying that they believe they've lost the "gay marriage" battle.

Their second point is that young voters don't have a very high opinion of Sarah Palin - one of the leaders of the more conservative teabagger wing of the GOP. They were more apt to support candidates like Rudy Giuliani, John McCain, and Arnold Schwarzenegger by almost double their support for Sarah Palin. These are all very centrist moderate candidates two of which come from more left leaning states.

How can the GOP win the youth vote? My advice? Go left and spend a whole lot of money reaching out to young voters.

Some interesting reads for you as we prepare to move into another week.

• With all the economic strife Millennials are experiencing these days, perhaps we need a National Youth Administration to help dig our way out?
• Democratic political strategist Donna Brazile outlines the extent to which Republicans plan to suppress votes in future elections.
• NPR explores how young people can improve their financial literacy; this article is one of a series of articles on the topic.
• Did you know? The largest number of American hate groups are located in Idaho and Mississippi.
• A Huffington Post piece discusses the importance of young people starting businesses and how we can enhance youth entrepreneurship in the future.
• Montana college students will be hit with a 10 percent tuition increase over two years. Why? State budget cuts.
• Allowing concealed guns on college campuses appeared to be sure to pass in Texas. However, some Democratic tactics appear to have dealt the bill a fatal blow.

There's no shortage of contempt for youth civic engagement these days, apparently.

Yesterday, in Marshalltown, Iowa, troubled presidential candidate Newt Gingrich hosted a town hall meeting. The senior citizen-dominated crowd heard Gingrich argue that, since immigrants need to pass a citizenship test to become U.S. citizens, "young Americans" should be required to take a similar test prior to exercising their right to vote. Gingrich's suggestion was met with applause from the crowd. ThinkProgress captured the transcript and the video.

GINGRICH: [Immigrants] need to pass a test of American history. And candidly, it wouldn’t be bad to have a test like that for young Americans before they start voting.

Ironically, Newt shows that his idiocy extends into the civic realm, and that he himself might experience difficulty passing the test he suggests.

Newt would benefit from picking up any history textbook and reading about the Voter Rights Act of 1965 and the 26th Amendment.

The Voting Rights Act of 1965 explicitly prohibits the use of any device or test to deny the right to vote on account of race. It states that "no citizen shall be denied the right to vote in any Federal, State, or local election because of his failure to comply with any test or device in any State." After President Nixon signed a bill into law in 1970 (based on The Voting Rights Act of 1965) that set the minimum voting age in federal, state, and local election at 18, and the Supreme Court ruled the law unconstitutional in Oregon v. Mitchell, 400. U.S. 112 (1970), Congress and state legislatures overwhelmingly passed the 26th Amendment to the Constitution, invalidating the Supreme Court's previous ruling. The Amendment reads:

Section 1. The right of citizens of the United States, who are eighteen years of age or older, to vote shall not be denied or abridged by the United States or by any State on account of age.

Section 2. The Congress shall have the power to enforce this article by appropriate legislation.

Newt didn't mention any specifics as a part of his proposal (what is "young," and how old does one have to be to be deemed competent enough to vote?), but unless he plans on pushing for a repeal of the 26th Amendment, it's a clear violation of the Constitution. Either Newt's trapped in a pre-1971 time warp, or he's as stupid as he thinks we are. Maybe both.

Legal issues aside, Newt's stupidity also reflects the grave danger Republicans face moving into the future. The GOP knows that the electorate is diversifying before their eyes and gaining thousands of unfriendly Millennials by the day. Politically, they have their work cut out for them.

Unfortunately, for these communities, the GOP frequently refuses to acknowledge its oppressive and harmful stances on policy and the Democratic process and conduct this work in an honest and legal manner. Accordingly, it refuses to engage in authentic outreach efforts with young voters and minority voters, choosing not to listen to these groups' concerns when it comes time to make policy. And so Republicans, to retain the power they do have, are forced to shrink our democracy, to rig the game, out of desperation.

The Republican Party knows that young people suffer because of its stances on myriad issues, whether that's the manufacturing of intelligence that got us into Iraq, the decline of Pell grant funding throughout Bush's two terms, the squandering of the trillions of surplus dollars over the last ten years, the outsourcing of our jobs and futures overseas, or the continued desecration of our environment; consequently, they don't trust us to make the "right" choice in the voting booth, or apparently, any choice at all.

Newt's suggestion that some Americans are not competent enough to exercise our constitutional rights is ironic, illegal, and cowardly. We must fight back by not only standing up to Newt, but also by vigorously contesting all of the disenfranchisement efforts the GOP has proposed to keep us from losing our inalienable right.

Update: Young Democrats of America and Democracy for America have teamed up to fight back against GOP voter suppression efforts all over the country. Newt's remarks are simply an extension of a philosophy that clearly governs the Republican Party's approach to democracy. Their action alert is provided below.

As a legislator in Montana, I’m proud that my state has defeated several bills aimed at suppressing the vote.

Unfortunately Montana is one of only a few success stories when it comes to our efforts to combat a concerted Republican plan to make voting much more difficult in states across the country.

In a New York Times editorial from last week, the Advancement Project, a civil rights advocacy group, described this rash of Republican-sponsored legislation as “the largest legislative effort to scale back voting rights in a century.”

That’s why two organizations dedicated to preserving the rights of all Americans have teamed up to take a stand against this outright assault on the fundamental democratic value of voting – you can join us here.

As Vice President of the Young Democrats of America, I’m excited to partner with Democracy for America, the people-powered political action committee working on progressive issues across the country to bring attention to this attack on young peoples’ voting rights.

A democracy depends on the people choosing their elected officials – not the politicians choosing their voters – and for that reason, DFA and YDA are launching a national campaign to defend democracy and defeat the Koch-funded attacks on voting rights.

Join us in defending democracy right now.

In addition to a this national statement in support of voting rights, YDA and DFA will be working together on a state by state basis to defeat the individual bills aimed at suppressing the votes of young people, working families, people with disabilities, the elderly and minorities.

There is little else more precious than our ability to participate in our democracy. Join me today in standing up for voting rights.

Thanks for all you do,

Representative Ellie Boldman Hill
Democrat
Missoula, Montana

Some quick hits for you as we head into the weekend (or, perhaps, just the end).

• A Washington Post piece asks if college is worth it
• Ezra Klein flags a graphic showing the percentage of recent college grads with jobs, by major.
  

  

• Speaking of college, here are ten reasons to get pumped for life following graduation.
• Nebraska's 4H organization and the YMCA team up to offer youth entrepreneur classes. An interesting partnership and initiative.
• CBS writes up the story we covered yesterday regarding Rockefeller's belief that young people are morally hollow. (Apparently 13 more people like him on Facebook between yesterday and today.)
• New Hampshire is aging.
• The Pope knows what's up--at least regarding the wisdom of listening to young people.
• Two young candidates in the Harrisburg, Pennsylvania area won primaries this week.
• Young Canadian city council candidate links young people to the local community.
• UK developing youth "underclass"
• The government: Just say no to sexting.
• Young people afraid to call themselves feminists.
• When will the GOP realize they are on the wrong side of history?

Some reading for your Friday. Enjoy!

• Salon explores why conservatives hate Common. A sneak peek:
  

  The president said Wednesday night, "A great poem is one that resonates with us, that challenges us, and that teaches us something about ourselves and the world that we live in." And maybe an African-American male from the South Side of Chicago has his own perspective on the world we live in, one that merits consideration even if it makes Sarah Palin uncomfortable. Common may or may not be a great poet. But he sure knows how to be challenging. And simply by his presence Wednesday night -- and the ire he provoked -- he proved the power of words before he even opened his mouth.

• Sen. Richard Lugar (D-IN), unhappy with President Obama's recent framing of the immigration issue, refuses to support the DREAM Act as he did last December.
• The Corporation for National and Community Service (CNCS) awarded six colleges and universities with the Presidential Award, the highest level of recognition a college or university can receive for its commitment to civic engagement and community work.
• Somehow, Newt Gingrich, fresh off yet another announcement that he's running for President, claims that Barack Obama has unfair advantages. You know, other than being an oppressed minority.
• Not a huge surprise, but a Hamilton College study shows that younger Americans (aged 18-29) are more positive toward immigrants and minorities.
• Youth, women, and minorities are resisting the Egyptian old guard's efforts to co-opt their revolution.

From the "you don't say" file:

Republicans received a boost over Democrats in landline-only telephone polls, according to a new study by the nonpartisan Pew Research Center.

Polls this fall that reached only landline phone numbers ended up giving Republicans an extra five percentage points compared with polls that dialed both landline and mobile phones, the study concluded. Pew said that’s because almost a quarter of U.S. homes don’t have a landline telephone number, and cell phone users tend to be younger and more Democratic.

This serves as a reminder to be especially critical of polls purporting to measure any kind of reality while failing to allow for representation of cell phone-only households in its results. Given the tendency of youth to forego landlines, we'd be doing ourselves a disservice to continue to peddle the polling garbage that is landline-only surveys.

DemfromCT over at DailyKos has an interesting interview with Ruy Teixeira, an expert on political demographics and a Senior Fellow at both The Century Foundation and Center for American Progress and author of the recently published working paper titled, Demographic Change and the Future of the Parties.

While you should go check it out in its entirety, here are the main points, which should be very familiar to faithful Future Majority readers.

• The Republican base is shrinking. The white, working class vote, a demographic that you hear all the "smart" television personalities talk about, is vanishing before our eyes, notes Teixeira. We heard a lot about this particular voting bloc in the 2008 Democratic primary, especially in the Ohio, Texas, and Mississippi contests. Yet, those states, like everywhere else, are seeing the size of this group diminish.
  

  In Texas, the white working class share is down 17 points, with minorities up 9 points and white college graduates up 7 points. In Ohio the share of white working-class voters fell by 15 points between 1988 and 2008 while white college graduates rose by 8 points and minorities by 6 points. Even a state like Mississippi has seen a huge drop in the white working class vote since 1988 (down 21 points).

• Millennials continue to decidedly identify with the Democratic Party. Though we continue to battle the "conventional wisdom" that youth always become more conservative with time, Teixeria corrects this, pointing to multiple studies that show partisan loyalty increases with age. And why would Millennials be attracted to the GOP anyway? In supporting the oppressive Arizona immigration law, continuing to treat gay people as if they are not human, and acting as if government has no redeeming value, it is almost as if the Republican Party is running away from our generation (you know, like Mark Kirk).
• To continue to build a long-term political advantage while championing good policy, the Democrats need to provide an alternative to Arizona's SB 1070, getting behind comprehensive immigration reform. Polling shows that the Arizona legislation is popular, but so is a description of a fairer comprehensive reform, in which the federal government strengthens border security and investigates employers who knowingly hire undocumented immigrants. These undocumented workers currently living in the United States would be required to register with the federal government, have criminal background checks, pay taxes, learn English, and go to the back of the line for U.S. citizenship (84 percent of those supporting the Arizona law support this alternative). For the Democrats to put forth a strong alternative to the GOP-backed position, they would be strengthening their attachments with already friendly Latino voters, and they also would be enhancing their stature as a party that can solve our larger problems.

The writing is on the wall. Despite the gloomy outlook for the midterms at this point, there are quite a few promising long-term trends for the party. Yet, in order for these to mean anything, we must go all out, institutionalizing peer-to-peer registration efforts. Luckily the DNC recently unleashed their voter registration strategy for the midterms, which significantly targets young voters and minority voters, a large chunk of the President's and the Democrats' base.

And while we face some short-term stress in 2010 while looking at some friendly long-term trends, the GOP is in the opposite situation. While the Tea Party continues to drum up conservative resistance to Obama and the Democrats (occasionally attracting attention for racist behavior), they are moving in the wrong direction of where they need to be to have any influence on the Millennial vote in the long-term. With Millennials forming about 40 percent of the electorate (and 44 percent of the generation identifying as a minority) in 2020, they form the anchor of this country's electoral future; meanwhile, the GOP can't seem to break away from the Tea Party, which actively resists a move toward the center.

For further reading, check out Teixeira's white paper (linked above) and read the reviews by Tom Schaller for FiveThirtyEight.com and Ed Kilgore at the Democratic Strategist.