indiana

Joe's got a great video up about Rush Limbaugh's "Operation Chaos" - in which he (Rush) encourages Republicans to eff with the Democratic primaries. He also has a good summation of the point I made earlier today about the supposed "race divide" between the Democratic candidates and how that plays out at the generational level.

Well my pre-game analysis was off. Banking on a smaller youth electorate and possible voter suppression at the polls, I predicted that Indiana would have a smaller youth turnout than North Carolina and that Clinton could potentially overtake Obama among some youth demographics (whites, 25 - 29). That turned out to be false.

Whichever way you slice it - share of the electorate or turnout - young voters played a bigger role in Indiana than they did in North Carolina yesterday. Young Hoosiers made up 17% of the total electorate, and, according to the Washington Post, outperformed voters over 65. CIRCLE lowballs the overall youth turnout at about 20%. (That number is a lowball because a lack of exit polling on the Republican side makes it impossible for them to accurately gauge youth turnout in the GOP contest. Without that data, their measurements for overall youth turnout can only come from the Dem side leaving tens to hundreds of thousands of young voters out of the equation).

In North Carolina, young Tarheels made up a smaller 14% of the overall electorate and turned out at a rate of 15% (again, a lowball estimate). In both states, Senator Obama continued to dominate the youthvote, pulling in a 49% margin in North Carolina and a 24% margin in Indiana.

With regard to share of the electorate, young voters in both states underperformed their share of the population (20% in Indiana and 21% in North Carolina), however the overall share likely rose considerably from 2000 and 2004. There are no exit polls from those cycles against which to compare data, but the average youth share of the electorate in 2004 was 9%. Going by that indicator, young voters' increased their share by ~5% in NC and 8% in Indiana. Not shabby.

According to reports, there was some voter suppression in Indiana, particularly among students attending private universities, however the numbers may be lower than anticipated. Groups like the Student PIRGs are still working on the issue and I'll post updates if/when I get them.

Most interesting to me was the racial breakdown of the youth vote in both states. In North Carolina, Sen. Clinton killed Sen. Obama among white voters overall, but she lot to Obama among White voters aged 17 - 29 57 - 41%. The results were similar in Indiana. Obama lost white voters overall, but won young white voters 55 - 45%. This was a reversal of the results in Pennsylvania, where Sen. Obama lost the white youth vote to Sen. Clinton 52 - 48%.

People say that Obama's "post racial" message is a fantasy when one looks at how the demographics break down, but that is a misinterpretation. Obama is not going to change the racial views and habits of older voters. No candidate could do that. Such change takes time. It is the work of generational shifts. That post-racial message is most apparent among younger voters, who display far less polarization on the issue and are far more likely to cross racial lines in casting their ballots.

Sorry this posted so late. Crazy day. - Mike

We're just a few hours away from the polls closing in North Carolina and Indiana and I wanted to put down some thoughts on the youth vote and what we might expect.

North Carolina
The demographics of the state heavily favor Obama. According to CIRCLE, young voters make up 21% of the eligible electorate in the state. Of that youth population, 25% are black/non-hispanic and 20% are college students, both demographics that heavily favor the Senator.

There are no exit polls from the 2004 primary (there were none according to Roper), so it will be difficult to make direct comparisons between today's vote and past primaries. The state has a form of early voting, and there weren't many indications that young people in the state would be disenfranchised. I'm looking for NC to have the higher youth turnout and share of the electorate this evening, and to break heavily for Sen. Obama among both the 18 - 24 and 25 - 29 demographics..

Indiana
Indiana is a distinctly different beast. According to CIRCLE, young voters make up 20% of the eligible electorate, but that population is much whiter and less likely to be located on a campus. Only 12% of those voters are black/non-hispanic, and 17% are current students. Less of the state's youth population is likely to have attended college or received a degree. This makes the state's young voters far more friendly to Clinton than North Carolina's.

Compounding these problems for Obama in Indiana is the recent photo-ID law upheld by the Supreme Court. The law requires that all voters have valid, state-issued photo ID. This places a heavy burden on students and young voters who move frequently and may not have valid driver's licenses. According to the Student PIRGs, this has already resulted in some students being turned away at the polls.

Because of this confluence of law and demographic factors, I'm looking for youth turnout to be low in Indiana. Obama will likely still carry the demographic, but it will be by a much smaller margin and the state affords Clinton the opportunity to claim a victory among the older, 25 - 29 year old cohort as she did in New Hampshire and a few other states.

From a press release I just received from Student PIRG:

Student PIRG New Voters Project staff stationed at polling locations near Indiana campuses today are beginning to hear from young voters turned away at the polls for a failure to meet voter identification laws upheld by the Supreme Court last week. The law, which requires voters to possess in-state or federal identification, such as an Indiana Driver’s License or federal passport, has been widely criticized for creating additional voting barriers. Three incidents of student voters turned away from the polls documented by Student PIRG staff in past two hours are included below. To contact profiled voters, please contact Sujatha Jahagirdar at (323) 309 6120.

19-year old Angela Hiss, a sophomore and computer science major at the University of Notre Dame, was turned away from the polls this afternoon as she attempted to vote in her first election. After arriving at her polling location, she presented several forms of identification - her school ID, a piece of mail that showed her campus address and an Illinois driver’s license – but was misinformed that she could not vote because she could not show in-state ID. Poll-workers, according to Hiss, also did not advise her that she could cast a provisional ballot, as required by state and federal law. Instead, they suggested visiting local Department of Motor Vehicles to obtain the in-state identification required by Indiana’s newly-upheld law, an endeavor that could take hours, she explained. Furthermore, while the law allows her ten days to obtain the required ID from the DMV, Hiss’s travel plans will not give her time. As a result, she said, she will not be able to vote in the primary.

19-year old Allyson Miller, a sophomore at the University of Notre Dame and volunteer at a local children’s clinic was similarly turned away from the polls today. An Indiana resident since the age of five, Miller left her driver’s license in her dorm room, and arrived straight from class at the polls with her school ID and registration confirmation papers from the County Registrar. Upon arriving, however, poll-workers did not allow her to vote without a state-issued ID. “I plan to come back because voting is a big deal to me,” said Miller, “but it’s a huge inconvenience, especially with a final tomorrow.”

19-year old Becky Jenkins, a sophomore and member of the tennis team at Butler University was also unable to vote in her first election today. “I didn’t know that I had to have an Indiana ID,” she said after she was turned away from the polls for attempting to cast her ballot using a driver’s licenses issued by the State of Illinois. When asked if she would instead cast a provisional ballot, Jenkins also said her travel plans wouldn’t allow her to.

I'll have my Indiana and North Carolina "preview" post up later this afternoon, but I wanted to post a few other quick items first, and remind all the Hoosiers and Tarheels to get to the polls.

If you are voting today and encounter any difficulties, remember that it is always your right to cast a provisional ballot, and put this number into your cellphone. Folks on the other end will help you out:

Credit where due to the Oregon Bus Project for my inspirational blog title. And now for the news:

• America's best high school newspaper gives young voters front-page treatment. -USA Today
• Wonkette has a humorous take on today's voting. -Wonkette
• Ben Adler examines how the new Photo ID law could disenfranchise black voters in Indiana today. -The Politico
• What role will early voting and exams play in determining youth turnout today? -Wall Street Journal
• Matthew Segal, founder of SAVE, gets some media spotlight in this profile piece. -The Politico
• Bob Herbert notes that McCain is doing the troops dirty in his column today. -New York Times

Youthy things left on the wayside of the information superhighway:

• Rock the Vote reminds us that early voting has started in Indiana and North Carolina. -Rock the Vote
• Conservatives are attempting a takeover at Dartmouth College. - Daily Kos
• Why the Democrats need all young voters, college and non-college, if they are to win in November. -The Nation
• Students for a New American Politics - a great organization that fundraises to place young activists on campaigns - is holding a fundraiser. -Daily Gotham
• Bush is pushing for legislation that will allow the government to buy-up student loans an ensure that loans will continue to be available to students. The article I read is vague, but it sounds like this might be an end run to bulk up the lender-friendly FFEL (Family Federal Education Loan Program) at the expense of the more efficient Direct Loan Program. -The Politico
• Just what is it that kids do on social networks? Danah Boyd Explains in her lecture "Teen Socialization Practices in Networked Publics." -Apophenia
• Adam B has much more on the Indiana voter ID ruling by the Supreme Court. -Daily Kos

• CBS Poll: Obama Way Ahead Among College Students - Cliff Schecter
• Other Youth Vote is Harder to Mobilize - Christian Science Monitor
• Students, Young Workers Have Different Priorities - The Politico
• Push for Youth Vote Stirs Activism on Campuses - Philly.com
• Barack Obama is Rocking the Youth Vote - Search Engine Watch
• Primary Lures Those Too Young to Vote - New York Times
• John McCain is Older Than FM Radio - Youngerthanmccain.com
• There will be a Hip Hop Summit in Philadelphia tomorrow - NAACP
• Trio in College May Hold Key Votes for Democrats - Wall Street Journal
• Youth Voter Participation Surges - But So Do Suppression Attempts - Op Ed News
• Youth Vote To Play Active Role in Election Year - Indiana Statesman