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Harvard Institute of Politics: The Obama Youth Vote is Alright

It's been really touching to see all the concern-trolling in conservative corners about Obama's youth vote slipping away. Unfortunately, it's just not true. A few weeks ago Democracy Corps reported that their latest survey found Obama with a stable 60 - 33% lead over Senator Obama McCain among young voters.

Just yesterday, the Harvard Institute of Politics confirmed that substantial lead. In their latest fall survey, the Harvard Institute of Politics found that Senator Obama continues to lead John McCain among young voters by a margin of 55 - 32%, a number not substantially changed since their last poll in the spring.

To put this into context, Harvard IOP polling from the 2004 election cycle showed Senator John Kerry with a 13-percentage point (52%-39%) lead among college students in the month leading up to the election. According to exit poll results, Senator Kerry won the total youth vote (18-29 year olds) in 2004, by a 9-point margin, 54%-45%.

Other findings:

Enthusiasm Gap:

In addition to the current gap in the horse race, a significant “enthusiasm” gap exists between Obama and McCain supporters on this issue. Slightly more than four-in-five (83%) young voters planning to vote for Obama tell us that they are excited about the election this fall, which is 27 percentage points higher than McCain’s supporters (56%). It should be noted that 44% of Obama supporters say they are “very excited,” while only 11% of McCain supporters say the same.

In addition, 68% of all young female voters say they are excited (56% of male voters), 74% of African Americans, 64% of young Hispanic/Latino voters and 60% of young Born-Again-
Christians are excited about the election this fall.

In politics, excitement often translates into engagement and this is most certainly the case for both Obama and McCain supporters this year. A slight majority of Senator Obama’s supporters (51%) indicate that they were interested in volunteering (12% very interested) on the campaign and 39
percent of McCain’s supporters said the same (13% very interested). These numbers translate to hundreds of thousands of potential volunteers for both campaigns – ready and willing to engage if asked.

On the Issues:
Trust

As I've said in the past, don't trust the polls put out by Zogby or traditional media outlets. Frequently their sample size of young voters is too small to be meaningful, and often they do not poll online or by cellphone, missing a lot of young voters (particularly young latinos) who tend to skew towards Obama. They also tend to blur the lines at times, reporting on 18 - 35 or 18 - 40 as "youth," instead of the traditional 18 - 29 age range. The end result is oftentimes polls are comparing apples and oranges.

If you do report on those polls, be sure to mark those caveats and discrepancies. Make sure you know what their sample size and margin of error is within the young voter demographic. Here's the methodology of the Harvard Survey:

As part of Harvard’s Institute of Politics ongoing analysis of 18 to 24 year old voters dating back to 2000, the IOP has conducted a survey of N=1,031 18 to 24 year olds on issues related to the 2008 campaign for President. This project is an interim update to our Biannual Youth Survey on Politics and Public Service, which saw its 14th release issued on April 24, 2008. The interviewing period for this study was between July 28 and August 12, 2008; all interviews were conducted online by our research partner, Harris Interactive.

August 26th, 2008 5:51pm
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