Louisiana

Quick Hits -- August 9th

The Tucson Citizen publishes a piece partially misrepresenting activism among Millennials (another instance of someone believing the Internet to be mutually exclusive from interpersonal activism).

Wall Street Journal has an interesting story about Louisiana's efforts to undermine its own brain drain, starting with stringent ethics laws and a focus on developing and implementing innovative ideas.

The LA Times has a great essay by Neal Gabler examining Obama's credentials as a "rock star" versus a "movie star," pointing out that the challenge built into Obama's sudden ascent is getting people to not only dream, but embrace their dreams.

CBS has a piece describing the dilemma the McCain camp faces with youth voters: do they sacrifice future branding efforts with Millennials by discouraging turnout among the demographic this year? Or do they engage this demographic, though it's late, and attempt to build toward the future? The latter doesn't look promising:

Between February 1 and July 31, Obama held thirty-two campaign events in college towns; McCain held three. The McCain campaign has yet to publicly announce an official youth outreach or youth vote campaign director. On the other hand, Obama has hired former Rock the Vote political director Hans Reimer. Not surprisingly, young Republicans have complained about the McCain campaign's poor efforts at the grassroots level and failure to make use of existing networks. "They definitely haven't reached out to the younger generation as strongly as I hoped they would," an organizer for the Young Republicans in South Carolina recently told a local newspaper. "It's a big mistake. You've got to create something that people want to be a part of. I'm just not getting that feeling this go-round." A young conservative political strategist named David All concurred, remarking to the Washington Post that "Republicans are sort of talking down to Gen-Nexters, not bringing them in."

Finally, an Iowa television station has a story about the youngest Republican delegate at this year's convention -- seventeen year old Mike Knopf from Dubuque. He's a pretty smart kid:

"...We've got, don't get me wrong, all these old people and they do a great job and they have for 20,30,40 years but it you want to keep a party strong the key is you have to renew your people."

Voter Purging Back With A Vengeance – 2008 Could See Multiple Florida 2000’s

Cross-posted at Project Vote's Voting Matters Blog

Weekly Voting Rights News Update

By Erin Ferns

In 2000, Florida’s disastrous effort to purge former felons from voter rolls resulted in the disenfranchisement of hundreds if not thousands of legitimate voters and clearly influenced the outcome of the presidential contest in that state. History may repeat itself this November with states taking potentially reckless and unlawful measures to clean voter rolls before Election Day.

Voter purges are one of several problems in the administration of elections that could not only bar legal voters from the polls, but could potentially influence the outcome of close races. Project Vote is monitoring this practice across the United States and sees what could be an alarming trend of illegal purging emerging. The New York Times and Mississippi's Clarion Ledger both reported on voter purging problems in the South this week.

Keeping accurate and current voter rolls is an important legal mandate for election officials. Under the National Voter Registration Act, states are required to contact voters directly through forwardable mail. If the voter does not respond, the state must wait two federal elections before removing the voter from the rolls. However, many states have begun to compare their voter rolls with those of neighboring states and pro-actively canceling a voter's registration based on a positive “match” rather than following the list maintenance procedures of NVRA.

Project Vote has recently expressed concern to Louisiana Secretary of State Jay Dardenne over the state's method of removing voters from rolls, as reported in the Times on Tuesday. Project Vote has learned that Louisiana compares voter lists with other jurisdictions, purging voters solely upon apparent database matches of first name, last name and birth date. With millions of people living in a multi-state region, it is not uncommon to find more than one John Smith born on the same day. Additionally, the possibility of human and typographical error that occur in all large databases creates a greater risk of unjustified disenfranchisement.

“A spokesman for Louisiana's secretary of state said that all voters found to have duplicate registrations were sent at least one warning letter and sometimes two, but that the last such actions were done some 13 months ago,” the Times reported.

“'We're specifically not doing it right in front of an election,'” said Dardenne's spokesman.
Election officials in Madison County, Miss. have recently decided to forgo a potentially illegal mass mailing process as part of their effort to purge the county’s voter rolls after the U.S. Justice Department and others warned against it, according the Clarion Ledger Tuesday. Last week, Project Vote sent a letter to the elections commission out of concern that their mass mailing plan violated the Voting Rights Act.

“They are doing something that is understandable when you have a voter roll that appears to be out of proportion,” said voting rights lawyers who works with Project Vote, Estelle Rogers. “But there are a lot of Ps and Qs that must be followed.”

County supervisor Karl Banks repeatedly voted against the mass mailing, saying that “his understanding of the law was that commissioners needed a reason to believe that a voter's information may not be accurate.” He argued that in this presidential election year, the commission should focus on making sure elections run smoothly, such as informing people of their correct precinct.

“The mildest things confuse people and can ultimately disenfranchise people during elections...Here we are wanting to disenfranchise people because they don't send a card back?”

The emerging trend of state compacts to compare voter databases and engage in aggressive efforts to purge their voter rolls is troubling for both its opacity – the public is not informed of the criteria for being purged nor are purged voters offered the chance to remedy the situation – and its reliance on strict matching criteria. Large databases are riddled with errors, therefore the sole reliance on exact matches virtually guarantees that legal voters will be knocked off the rolls and denied the right to vote.
The Florida example from 2000 should be instructive on on how these practices could affect the outcome of closely contested races on Election Day.

Quick Links:

Contact:

Louisiana Secretary of State Jay Dardenne

Madison County (Miss.) Board of Supervisors

Reports:

“Maintaining Current and Accurate Voters Lists.” Project Vote. Dec. 22, 2006.

“A Summary of the National Voter Registration Act.” Project Vote.

“A Summary of the Voting Rights Act of 1965.” Project Vote.

In Other News:

Federal judge weighs challenge to AZ voter id law - Tucson Citizen [Ariz.]
PHOENIX (AP) -- A federal judge is weighing a challenge to Arizona requirements for voter identification and proof of citizenship for registering to vote.

County voter drive blocked: Fewer New Citizens Registered After US Agency Changes Rule - Mercury News [Ca.]
It was a procedure that produced a bumper crop of new voters: Just before Santa Clara County immigrants were sworn in as U.S. citizens, they got voter-registration cards and were shown how to fill them out. At the conclusion of the naturalization ceremony, most new citizens had signed the cards and handed them in to become registered voters.

State Says It May Sue VA - Associated Press
Connecticut officials say the state might sue the U.S. Department of Veterans Affairs if it continues to block efforts to educate and register voters in federal veterans' facilities.

Voter-sign-up drive targets 16-year olds - Miami Herald
Voter registration for next month's primary election will end Monday, and the push now is aimed at teens who are too young to cast a ballot

Erin Ferns is a Research and Policy Analyst with Project Vote’s Strategic Writing and Research Department (SWORD).

Louisiana Youth Vote (Late Night Numbers and Observations) - Updated

Update: CNN has updated their exit polls. The final results say that Obama carried the youth vote by a more comfortable 66 - 30 percent margin, and he actually swept both cohorts of Millennial voters: 59 - 39 percent among 18 - 24 year olds, and 74 - 22 percent among 25 - 29 year olds. So Louisiana actually kept with the trends and is not an aberration like Massachusetts. Obama also won black youth by a more resounding 81 - 19 percent. No data is available for how young white voters cast their ballot.

In regards to turnout, if my math is correct, 35,754 18 - 19 year olds participated yesterday. The turnout rate is 4.7%. That may be the lowest youth turnout rate so far this cycle. Again, I'll update this once CIRCLE releases their data should my figures prove inaccurate.

My math was wrong. I calculated Democratic turnout against the entire eligible youth electorate. That produced an artificially low number because it left out Republican youth (who are, of course, counted in the total youth population).

CIRCLE has released their final analysis (pdf). The overall youth turnout rate was 7% (51,365 total young voters - including Republicans).

Among Democrats, youth share of the electorate increased from 7% in 2004 to 10% this weekend. Among Republicans, young voter share actually decreased from 2000 levels, going from 12% to 10%.

Once again, Democratic youth turnout more than doubled Republican turnout: 35,755 to 15,610.

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I'm just sitting down to look at the results of today's primary and caucuses. Obama is the Democratic winner in all three states today. When it comes to the youth vote, it looks like there are no exit/entrance polls from either Washington or Nebraska, meaning that it won't be possible (for me at least) to determine what happened in any quantifiable way.

Louisiana, does have exit polling, and here's what it looks like.

Note that these are subject to change as CNN updates their polling. I'll double check all the numbers tomorrow morning:

Young voters were 10% of the electorate, and broke for Obama 60 - 39 percent overall. There is no data on the youth vote share of the electorate for 2004, but young voters underperformed their share of the population, which is 24 percent.

Obama won both the older and younger Millennial cohorts - though barely. He and Sen. Clinton basically tied among 18 - 24 year olds, with Obama edging his rival out 50 - 49 percent. Among older Millennials, Obama won 71 - 29 percent. Obama's large victory among older Millennials is something we saw on Tuesday in Massachusetts, though it remains an aberration overall. In most of the contests thus far Obama does better among younger Millennials while Clinton finds the bulk of her youth support among the older cohort. I still don't have a good explanation as to why Louisiana and Massachusetts don't reflect this voting pattern.

Sen. Obama's carried younger voters due to strong turnout on the part of young black voters, who were 7% of the electorate and broke in his favor 74 - 26%. In this, young black voters overperformed for their share of the youth population, while young white voters underperformed. Young african americans are 34 percent of Louisiana's youth population, but they accounted for 70 percent of the youth vote. Young white are 61 percent of Louisiana's youth population, but they accounted for only 30 percent of today's youth vote.

On the Republican side, Mike Huckabee once again proved himself to be the Republican youth candidate, pulling in 51 percent of the Republican youth vote to McCain's 30 percent.

There are still no numbers for the hard turnout or the turnout rate for young voters in either party. We'll have to wait for the final vote tallies tomorrow before that can be calculated. I imagine that CIRCLE will release fact sheets early tomorrow as well, and I'll post about them as soon as they are released.

Open Thread - For All Things Primary/Caucus

Jibber jabber away if you're in one of today's primary/caucus states. Let us know what's happening.

I'll be dropping in occasionally and posting some stuff later tonight.

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