new hampshire

Ron Paul has been cleaning up the youth vote - but did you notice that the polls in the days leading up to the Iowa Caucus and the New Hampshire Primary were a little.... what's the technical term...? Off? Wrong? Skewed? It turns out that polls all significantly under-sampled young voters.

According to a report from Stefan Hankin from Campaigns and Elections Magazine

"The miss on the Paul numbers is a bit troubling. When looking at the polling firms that release their demographics, it is clear that younger voters were under sampled. In the last Suffolk Poll, under 35s were at 7.6 percent; PPP had under 30s at 10 percent. Moreover, both these firms were also off on the sampling of independent voters. PPP had independents at 37 percent and Suffolk had them at 40 percent."

If you're a regular reader of FM then you know this is typical. The loudest example was a CNN poll that didn't sample enough young people to get an accurate number so for young people they just put N/A. Many times polling firms will use "likely voters" and since most pollsters are aging politicos who still operate under the assumption that young people don't vote... a large sample of the 18-29 year old demographic doesn't make it into the polling models. The other major problem is that most polling firms use land lines to contact potential voters. Young people don't really use landlines... and that's becoming increasingly the case.

As the 2012 election season ramps up, let this be a reminder that most polls are going to ignore young people. This is not at all a valid reflection of the overall electorate. We've proven that young people can make a difference in the election if we're mobilized and unified around a candidate or an issue. Ignore the youth vote at your own peril.

Tuesday's New Hampshire Primary might have given Ron Paul only a second place finish, but he cleaned up with young voters.

Participation among young voters plummeted in Tuesday’s New Hampshire primary, when compared to the state’s 2008 primary, but nearly half of eligible voters under 30 years old who did show up to the polls threw their support behind Ron Paul."

According to CIRCLE data

"Although young voters did not turn out at a particularly high rate this year, they did have an impact by concentrating their votes for Rep. Ron Paul (R-TX), helping him come in second behind former Gov. Mitt Romney (R-MA)," said CIRCLE Director Peter Levine. "Dr. Paul’s 47% support from 18- to 29-year-olds was the strongest level of support for any candidate by any age group."

Of those eligible voters 18-30, 15 percent voted in yesterday's NH Primary. By contrast 4 percent of eligible voters under 30 participated in the Iowa Caucus, and similarly Ron Paul received a majority of the support from those young voters (48 percent), according to CIRCLE.

"According to CIRCLE’s estimate, approximately 8,800 young people turned out for Ron Paul in last night’s caucus. In comparison, at least 30,000 young people turned out for Barack Obama in the 2008 Iowa Caucuses, contributing to his victory there. Almost twice as many young voters supported Obama in 2008 as supported all the 2012 Republican candidates combined. The 48% support for Rep. Paul was the highest level of support for any candidate among any age group in yesterday’s Caucuses. (Mitt Romney won 33% of the votes of ages 65 and older, the second strongest concentration of support.) Youth represented a typical proportion of all the Iowa Caucus-goers in 2012 at 15%.

"For the second election in a row, youth played an important role in the Iowa Caucuses,” said CIRCLE Director Peter Levine. “In 2008, they turned out strong and gave their support to both parties’ Iowa Caucus winners, Barack Obama and Mike Huckabee. In 2012, they turned out at a more typical rate but threw such a high proportion of their votes to Ron Paul that he finished close. It is statistically unlikely that the young Paul supporters of 2012 had caucused for Obama in 2008. It is more likely that a different group was mobilized in each year."

Paul contrasts significantly with other Republican candidates by speaking directly to issues that matter to many young republicans. While Paul talks about pulling out of all of the wars and legalization of pot, Santorum gets in trouble by going to colleges and speaking about his opposition to equality. Paul's ground game also targets young people and asks them to participate - which contrasts with candidates like Newt Gingrich who supports making it harder for young people to vote. Clearly, working with young voters instead of against them garners results - at least in Ron Paul's case.

According to some young voters issues like unemployment and the cost of higher education were issues that mattered most to them during this election.

Headcount goes to New Hampshire to interview young republicans and Occupy Protestors

Rick Santorum made the mistake of using Suffolk University in Concord, New Hampshire (where gay marriage is legal) this week for his anti-equality policies that got him into the unfortunate google trouble. When asked by a college student why his policies on equality didn't include LGBT couples, Santorum compared it to polygamy and then avoided discussion when the conversation turned against him.

"After several students tried to interject, Santorum said he would end the debate, insisting "I'm going to give people one more chance and then we are going to move on."

Santorum had seen a surge coming out of the caucus in Iowa where he was in the #2 spot by just 8 votes below Romney. But after word of the University students cold reception spread it seems Santorum's surge has plateaued, according to a two day tracking poll done by Suffolk.

"Santorum's support among independents, who can vote in New Hampshire's Republican contest, dropped from 6 percent to 3 percent after the college event, according to Suffolk's findings. His support from 18 to 34 year olds dropped from 9 percent to 2 percent."

It was comments on marriage and quality this that got Santorum into trouble with The Google several year ago, you'd think he'd learn...

Jon Huntsman, in campaigning for the Republican nomination for the presidency, is encountering a rough reality five months removed from the New Hampshire primary: voters don't know who he is. And if general voters don't know who he is, I'm guessing young voters aren't well aware of the former governor-turned presidential candidate either.

While Huntsman has some work to do with the general electorate, And maybe some his daughters are attempting to do their part in reaching out to young voters through Twitter.

On July 28, Huntsman's three oldest daughters started their own Twitter account. At the outset, the Twitter account was created based on the daughters' desire to share where they are and what they are doing with friends. But then they thought about other uses.

Abby Huntsman, 25, said she and her sisters came up with the idea on their own as a way to keep friends informed.

'All our friends are like, "Where are you? You’re always in different places and doing interesting things!"

'And we thought, "This is a great way to reach out to, not only our friends, but to the youth and to anybody interested in following the campaign",' she said.

[...]

Abby Huntsman said she’s not sure what role the @Jon2012girls account will play in the upcoming election, but she believes she and her sisters have a basic duty to their dad.

'I think our involvement is pretty simple. It’s just getting out there, getting people excited and getting them to know a little bit about my dad,' she said.

I'm not one to knock efforts to appeal to young voters or engage in social media, so kudos to the Huntsmans.

However, I think we need to remember that technology in 2008 campaigns and technology in 2012 campaigns are entirely different phenomena. So while simply "getting a Twitter or Facebook" might have been able to pass as some kind of appeal to youth in 2008 (even that is highly doubtful), doing that alone definitely won't work in 2012.

If the Huntsman daughters legitimately want to appeal to young voters, maybe they need to tell their dad to campaign and advocate for true pro-growth policies, strategies that create jobs and increase government revenues. That's what we want and need. That he definitely wouldn't get out of the GOP primary after spreading this message shows you just how far the Republican Party is from young voters' priorities.

Despite the chatter from the punditry, yesterday was a big day for Millennials. While they focus on two races with candidates that ignored the youth vote and wonder why turnout did not match 2008's all time high, a number of young people won local elections throughout the country.

In New York, Young Democrats of America Democratic National Committeewoman Stephanie Hausner was the highest vote getter in her election to the Clarkstown Town Council. Former NYSYD National Committeeman David Carlucci won re-election as Clarkstown Town Clerk. Two former New York Young Democrats local chapter leaders, Dan French and David Fried, won local elections as well.

In New Hampshire, state Young Democrats President Garth Corriveau was elected Alderman in Manchester as was fellow NHYD Patrick Arnold.

In Washington, Kim Cole was elected to the Lynnwood City Council, Andy Ryder to the Lacey City Council, Amy Ockerlander to the Duvall City Council.

Over Twitter I've been told of a recent high school graduate that was elected to a school board in Michigan, as well as a number of other Millennial candidates that were giving victory speeches last night.

In towns and cities across the country young voters showed up to the polls to elect their own. These young local candidates realized the power of their generation, chose to run for office, and by reaching out to fellow young voters won their elections.

Yesterday's lesson was not that young voters only showed up to the polls in 2008 to elect Barack Obama, but that Democrats must continue the youth outreach and funding that occurred during the 2008 cycle. The Millennial generation does not exist to serve at the beck and call of the DNC without being respected. When a candidate speaks to the issues of young voters and actively campaigns for their votes, they will deliver. The new generation of candidates understands this, and most of those candidates have a title with -elect after it today. Creigh Deeds and Jon Corzine didn't, and in return were relegated to giving concession speeches.

The lesson for Democrats in 2010 is this: take the youth vote for granted at your own peril. If you want young voters to deliver for you, you have to be serious about earning their votes.

Also check out Sarah's take on what yesterday meant.

UPDATE: It is important to note that the 2008 youth turnout was the result of funding and youth turnout effort from 2004 through 2008, and not an isolated 2008 effort.

Note: Mike wrote about this story on Thursday, but I wanted to dig deeper into the story. You can read Mike's post here.

Since Election Day, many a journalist has written pieces cautiously exploring the changes that Millennials will bring to electoral politics, given their "sudden" emergence. Some conclude that Obama has raised expectations too high. One comically questions whether or not it was a good thing for young people for Obama to win. There's a story in New Hampshire, though, that gives all of us a clue on the kind of transformative change we're in for thanks to civically-engaged Millennials.

Grafton County, New Hampshire contains the town of Hanover, home of Dartmouth College. A Republican, Carol Elliott, has held various local government positions over twenty years; she probably figured running for county treasurer would be a walk in the park, even if it was 2008 and she's in the GOP.

But Vanessa Sievers, a 20 year old Dartmouth College student (also a member of the DNC Youth Council), decided to give Elliott a run for her money (no pun intended). Sievers paid $42 for a Facebook ad aimed at Dartmouth and Plymouth State students. The Dartmouth College Democrats backed her up with a superb voter registration and GOTV operation:

Hanover registered 2,436 new voters this year, and David Imamura, the president of Dartmouth College Democrats, yesterday said 2,268 Dartmouth College students voted in the election, about 30 percent of Hanover's record turnout.

Town officials yesterday confirmed more than 2,000 Dartmouth students voted in the election and said that would be a record.

Sievers could not be reached for comment yesterday, but Imamura said she and other active Dartmouth Democrats went door-to-door on campus to tell students about candidates on the ballot other than Barack Obama and victorious U.S. Senate candidate Jeanne Shaheen.

“I think Dartmouth students have a genuine interest in how government works in New Hampshire,” Imamura said. “It wasn't just us going out there saying ‘vote straight Democratic' … it was a big effort to educate Dartmouth students about why they should vote down ticket.”

All of this came together in the form of an Election Day surprise:

Sievers won 21,389 votes across the county to 20,803 for Elliott. Sievers' largest margin of victory was in Hanover, home to Dartmouth, where she defeated Elliott by 2,438 votes. The Democrat also won 411 more votes than did Elliott in Plymouth, home to Plymouth State University.

It's quite obvious that Dartmouth College students were responsible for Sievers's victory. What isn't so obvious to Elliott and the county GOP chairman -- much like their national party compatriots -- is that they lost because they've either chalked up young voters for the Democrats and not pursued them or they're outright hostile to their political participation.

Elliott, doing her best to emulate Sarah Palin's patriotism, whined a bit about the loss:

Elliott yesterday said the heavy college turnout doomed her candidacy.

“The real people … ” she stated, “with a 600-vote (margin), it was the brainwashed college kids that made the difference.”

[...]

“You've got a buffoon for a register of deeds, and you've got a teenybopper for a treasurer,” Elliott said. “I'm concerned for the citizens of Grafton County.”

[...]

Meanwhile, Ludlow Flower, has no interest in actually doing his job and trying to attract people to the Republican Party, because, well, these people don't count.

Grafton County Republican Chairman Ludlow Flower yesterday also did not embrace Elliott's comments about her opposition, but said he was concerned that college students who live in Grafton County for a limited time were tilting elections for county offices.

“I think it's a terrible shame that the Dartmouth student vote is able to distort the outcome of the vote for Grafton County officers,” Flower said. “I have no problem with them voting for national political tickets, because they do have a stake in this whole country, but they don't have a stake in our local community here.

“Nothing against Ms. Sievers, but she's a 20-year-old college student,” Flower continued. “By comparison, Carol Elliott is a public servant of some 25 or 30 years, with a lot of public experience. It just seems a shame that we have yet to figure out a way to make this democratic process for county offices more reflective of our local circumstances.”

Of course, we know that the Supreme Court decided in 1979 that college students do have the right to vote wherever they go to school.(SYMM v. U.S, 439 U.S. 1105 (1979)) So why spend time griping about a ruling that's been static for nearly three decades; why not try to stem the tide against the national party and pursue these young voters who, more and more, are joining an ever-solidifying and powerful political coalition in the Democratic Party?

The "local circumstances" talk is hilarious, given the snowbirds who only live there for part of the year, never questioned by the GOP. Also, quite frankly, I think it's a "terrible shame" that, as a leader of that community, Flower doesn't want to keep people in Hanover after they've graduated from Dartmouth, expanding the tax base and improving the economy. But then again, Mr. Flower is exhibiting that "country first" attitude, provided the country looks, thinks, and acts like he does.

This is a perfect example of what will happen to the Republican Party should it continue on its current course. Joe the Plumbers are starting to leave us, as younger, browner, and more progressive voters expand. If the GOP refuses to adapt, they're screwed. If the Republicans don't act, the crystal ball becomes clearer: the GOP becomes irrelevant while Millennials run the country as progressive Democrats.

Short story? Carol Elliott and the GOP has come to realize what change means thanks to an enterprising Millennial, and they're stomping their feet, covering their ears, and crying because they don't like it.

Advice? Grow up. Literally.

This is amazing. A student at Dartmouth College in New Hampshire ran for Country Treasurer and rode the Obama wave to victory using $50 in Facebook ads targeting students at Dartmouth and nearby Plymouth State University. She won by just 586 votes.

Her opponent was not happy:

The current county treasurer, Carol Elliott, 68, called Ms. Sievers, 20, a “teenybopper” in an interview with a local newspaper, The Valley News, and said she had won only because “brainwashed college kids” had voted for the Democratic ticket.

That's sure to get young people in New Hampshire flocking to the GOP standard in 2010 . . . And here's another great comment from the country Republican chairman:

The county Republican chairman, Ludlow Flower, however, does not think that new media or college students belong in a county race.

“College students are not involved in local things at all,” Mr. Flower said. “They’re only involved in Dartmouth College. They don’t buy property here, they don’t pay taxes here, so they’re not concerned with how the treasury is handled.”

As my friend who tipped me to this story said - it's good to see the Republicans going back to the time-honored tradition of only allowing landed gentry to run for office.

I'm waiting on the Young Elected Officials Network to get me data on more young people who were elected to office this year. I'm hoping we hear a lot more stories like this: young people using new media and their social networks to jump-start their political careers at the local level.

How crazy is that . . . $50 in Facebook ads . . .

In our previous posts, we detailed our huge trip to central Pennsylvania which was a huge success. We sent 151 members into the battleground state last weekend where we knocked on a total of 10,520 doors in places like Bloomsburg, Hazelton, Stroudsburg, and Wilkes-Barre, having over 3,000 coversations with undecided voters.

Now the College Democrats of NY are ready to roll once again as we are working on plans to send 40 students from the New York City area into Nashua, New Hamsphire next weekend. More details about our upcoming trip still to come...

Hey folks. I'm sure those of you who visit the site regularly notice that there are a few different things around here lately (and for those of you in RSS-land, come see what I'm talking about). I'll have more on what's new around here tomorrow after I complete a few finishing touches tonight. In the meantime, here's some good stuff that didn't get blogged today:

• Larry Lessig's anti-corruption group Change Congress is looking for some tech-savvy kids to help run the operation. Job description is here. This should be right up the alley of FM readers.
• I've been talking for months about how John McCain plays the mainstream cultural media. Well Rock the Vote actually has some stats on it, along with a big BS detector on McCain's attempts to reach youth:
  

  Indeed, John McCain has made more guest appearances on the Daily Show—12 in total—than any other guest of the show ever. According to IMDB, McCain has also made 10 appearances on the “Tonight Show with Jay Leno,” and 8 appearances on the “Late Show with David Letterman.” By comparison, he has appeared on the famed Sunday political talk show “Meet the Press” only 6 times.

  Too bad Obama is massacring McCain on the web. It is just not the 20th Century anymore . . . . Definitely worth a read.

• HeadCount is getting some big media play for their work at Bonnaroo this past weekend. Not in the article is the fact that HeadCount registered 1,100 new voters at the festival and received 2,000 more vote pledges. Great work y'all.
• Music for Democracy, a PAC looking to get the music scene into partisan politics, launched their website this week.
• It's been a big week for culture and politics. The Progressive Book Club also launched their website today.
• The Concord Monitor notes that over two dozen candidates under 35 are on the ballot this year. Looks like the Granite State might get a big youth-infusion in its state house.
• Finally, Marc Ambinder has the goods as to what the 3,600 Obama Fellows are doing with their time.