oklahoma

Shameless self promotion - one of the candidates I'm working with spoke marvelously about the ability for government to contribute to young people.

Lt. Governor Jari Askins remarked at the Gov 2.0 Conference in Oklahoma City that its interesting that most schools tell students to turn off their cell phones and smart phones and that we still teach them with a text book. She says that with a 2.0 government we can go beyond the text book and show them what government is like using the websites they hang out on or by making government more accessible online.

You can see the rest of the speech here.

I rarely promote my own candidates or clients because I feel awkward, but I have to say one of my newest clients is really surprising. I mostly do new media work with the campaign so let me preface all of this by saying that I have - not once - had a conversation with this candidate about the youth movement, about young people, about young voters, or the best ways to do youth outreach. Not once.

The current Lt. Governor of Oklahoma spoke at the Young Democrats of Oklahoma convention several weeks ago and I have to say it was probably the first time I've ever heard a candidate actually dispel the constant myth that young people don't participate or get involved.

"For those of us who have been in political office for a number of years, we sometimes hear from our local parties that 'we just can't get the young people involved. We just can't get the young people interested.' And my observation when I was State Representative and then as Lt. Governor has been that you guys are the ones who are involved. And a lot of times its the local parties who are not as involved as they ought to be."

This is also the first time I've ever heard a political candidate - either one of my clients or one I've heard speak, who actually understood our potential beyond volunteerism. She actually talked about the remarkable ability young people have at coming up with creative solutions that older generations wouldn't have thought about. She talked about the ability of youth to think globally because we're more connected globally and she talked about a key component to heartland youth specifically - jobs for young people within our own state.

"We need your help in figuring out what the ideas are to put in practice so we can tell every child in Oklahoma that a public education is a quality education in this state. We need to be figuring out what you think are the best ways to keep those kids in school before they drop out. And then we have to figure out for all of our young people, whether they stay in school or they don't stay in school how do we help you get the skills that you need to fill the jobs that we have in Oklahoma, so that you know that you have the ability to stay here to meet your own bills here to do things in this state where your roots are."

I've worked for a lot of candidates, really good people that I believe in and who have been elected or should have been elected, but few of them understood young people on any kind of meaningful level. And I can actually verify that she does read what people post on Twitter, but the fact that she was able to cite specifics to audience members also just shocked the hell outa me. Watch the speech here:

We know that youth turnout is very difficult to actually count because so many states (I'm talking about you Kansas and Oklahoma) don't parse data based on little things like age or gender or any identifying information other than who voted for which candidate. I guess we should be grateful, right?

Sadly, we have to use exit polling to understand how these young people voted in so many states. Exit polling is traditionally unreliable because they disproportionately survey older voters and as we know young voters are difficult to both find and contact (what with that darn modern technology and all...).

Battleground states have more accurate data because everyone needs to know every little tiny vote. Also states with more sophisticated election boards or Secretaries of State tend to have data available for people like us who want to take a closer look without having to deal with a partisan infrastructure for data. Not very independent...

What I've been looking at this week is comparing states that have active youth outreach vs. states that don't and how the turnout differed.

Montana has had Forward Montana working on the ground since before the 2006 election. They are active every month of every year, not just in the lead up to an election.

This year Montana had a 22% turnout in the exits that went for Obama 61/37. In 2004 it was 21% of the vote share but they went for Bush 52/43.

New Mexico which just recently had a youth org start up and rocked it this year. According to Karlo at CIRCLE

"New Mexico's youth turnout rate is consistently below the national average despite a large increase in turnout from 2000 to 2004. Like Indiana, young New Mexicans preferred Bush over Kerry."

But in the exits (which... again give a very conservative estimate of youth turnout) 71% of 18-29 year olds went for Obama in New Mexico. Contrast that with 17% share in 2004 that went for Bush 50/49. That is a substantial difference.

According to CIRCLE’s estimation

"using aggregated counts of votes from each of these states ... (including NM), youth turnout in the heavily campaigned states was especially strong at 59%, compared with 47% for all other states combined."

Kansas ... bless their hearts... have no youth outreach at all. But this year had a very strong Students for Barack Obama chapter at the University of Kansas and a few other areas of the state. They had a dramatic change of heart since 2004.

Kansas had exits showing 51/47 for Obama with also a 19% share. 2004 Exits show a 17% share with 55/44 for Bush over Kerry. That is a 7% change of heart for a party and a 2% increase in share. And that's a conservative estimation...

Oklahoma, by contrast, had no outreach to young voters outside of traditional Young Democrats chapters. Oklahoma was the only state in the country to have more young voters vote republican in their Primaries than democrats.

Exits show that in 2008 - 60% of 18-29 year olds went for McCain in Oklahoma and there was no increase in the share from 2004 to 2008. In 2004, however, they went 62% for Bush over Kerry... so there IS that.

My guess, is that the dramatic turnout we've seen nationally only calculated to a 2% increase in youth enthusiasm for Obama in 2008 than for Kerry in 2004. That's also with a very competitive US Senate race where the democrat was a Young Elected Official.

I've said it before, I'll say it again... if you build it... they will come. We have 4 examples of all kinds of youth outreach here. 2+ year plan, 1-2 year plan, electoral only college outreach, and no outreach with results that show the results. In Montana and New Mexico they nearly flip-flopped in GOP to Democratic support - and in Kansas there was a 7% increase in democratic participation. Oklahoma saw.... nothing.

If we begin to not merely develop a 50 state strategy but develop a 50 state youth strategy then I think we can start to see the kinds of results coming out of Montana and New Mexico in states even like Kansas and Oklahoma.

Frequently ignored, rural voters are sometimes the most insistent. Rural youth, are just as dedicated to policies that can make their lives better. In Oklahoma youth have a solid idea of how issues impact their world. Unique to their area, the environment has a larger impact on their lives than that of urban America.

"In my town, if the river's high, everybody knows it. If the river's dirty, everyone knows about it," young voter Dale Denwalt says.

Kyle Meade is a second generation American whose grandparents came from Mexico. He attacks Republican Tyler Trammell on his assumption that immigration will force Americans into a Mexican culture. Meade says he's living proof that those stereotypes aren't true.

See what they think at the Rural Roundtable...

Youthy candidate in Oklahoma Ryan Kiesel who was elected as one of the youngest people ever in Oklahoma is up for reelection. He will surly win, but I think he's capable of greater things... what do ya'll think?

It’s an Olympic year, so there’s a lot of torch-passing going around these days. But it’s also a watershed year in which the torch is being passed, once again, to a new generation.

Two years ago, when I ran for State Senate and won, I watched a wave of young progressives sweeping across the nation. I was not just watching history happen, I was part of it with all of you.

This year, however, is proving that 2006 was just a prelude to a national movement, a generational shift that makes our nation’s hope for the future incredibly bright. And once again, I’m honored to be a part of history as it happens. This wouldn't be a pivotal year without your work and your involvement, and I wouldn't be here without the support of young people in Oklahoma.

I’m running for U.S. Senate in Oklahoma in part because I’m inspired by these times. A new group of people who have grown up believing that government can be a force for good in people’s lives are working to make sure that it fulfills that mission. We’re changing our nation from the inside out, from the state house to Washington. And the need for well-qualified and hopeful people to serve in the public sphere has never been greater.

We have to shape our own future. If we want to have Medicare and Social Security available when we retire, we must protect it now. If we want to have clean air for our children and energy sources to fill the void left when oil supplies shrink, we must fight for renewable and clean alternatives now. If we want to have quality and affordable health care available for when we, or our children, get sick, we must change the health care system now.

When I’m in the U.S. Senate, I’ll be fighting for all of these issues, as well as protecting our troops and our veterans, keeping our nation’s security strong, spending our tax dollars responsibly, and ensuring a quality education for every child. My opponent, incumbent Sen. Jim Inhofe, has proven to be out of touch with his constituents on these subjects. Being a voice for the people you represent is the basic job of any legislator, and he’s failing to do even that.

I appreciate the opportunity to come on Future Majority and discuss the issues you care about, as well as my U.S. Senate campaign. If you want to find out more about me and about this race, please look at my website, www.andrewforoklahoma.com . I’ll be happy to take your questions below.

Tomorrow at 1pm CENTRAL, 2pm EASTERN, we'll be hosting a live blog with 35 year old Andrew Rice of Oklahoma. Andrew recently won the Democratic primary in Oklahoma, carrying 60% of the vote. He is now going on to challenge Republican incumbent James Inhofe, one of the most notorious global warming deniers in the Senate.

You can RSVP on Facebook, and please invite others to join us. Here's a video from Andrew's site:

At a time when young people are exceeding participation in elections, issue discussion, and politics, progressives and democratic candidates have capitalized on the opportunities of a lifetime to juice up state parties and progressive leaning organizations across the country.

Most that had turnout numbers for the February Super Fat Tuesday elections showed an increase in youth participation and most of them voted for democratic candidates.

Except Oklahoma. As Mike told us Oklahoma had 10,000 more young people voted for Republican candidates - not Democrats.

This is curious to me. I'm familiar somewhat with Oklahoma - I have a few friends who work there and I looked into the kind of organizing the GOP is doing there and I gotta tell you, its not that much. Its in par with normal organizations and normal states. There is a Young Dems chapter in the main universities, and a College Republicans chapter there too. The Oklahoma GOP doesn't seem that active, that involved, or honestly that competent. The Dems don't seem like they have a 100% solid organization but they are more organized, have more staff, and are more open to "outside of the box" thinking - so I feel like they are better poised.

One operative I talked to said it might be a result of the closed vs. open primary. In Kansas we have an open Dem caucus vs. the GOP that has a closed caucus. We've seen in the past that young voters are more likely to register as independents.

Young Voter Strategies shows here

"Young voters' high rate of independence has been true throughout modern American political history. The America Voter noted in 1964 that "young people, just entering the electorate, are more likely than any of the older age groups to call themselves independents." Today about one-third of young adults identify as independent."

My friend in OK agrees with this. With a closed primary you don't get the independent voters or republican voters that want to vote more progressively but are just not registered that way.

Another reason GOP youth numbers were up, might be because this new blood may not have been excited by Bush but were excited by this race.

Another friend says that in Oklahoma they are having problems with an aging and passing democratic electorate. Oklahoma is an old school democratic state. Good old farmers and ranchers who have grown up and lived with staples in the party like Robert S. Kerr. Those folks are quickly dying off - and their children are not following suit in the same family business.

The data hasn't gone unnoticed by operatives there and many progressive leaning organizations have been developing their outreach to young voters. These new numbers are a good indication for the necessity for their organization and enthusiasm to continue. Perhaps, shift more into high gear.

As the data from YVS shows us - if you vote the same way in your first few elections, then you've got them hooked for life.

Seven months ago, Oklahoma Senator Jim Inhofe sat in a committee meeting and told former Vice President Al Gore that global warming was a lie. After a rambunctious few moments where Inhofe refused to let VP Gore answer any of his accusations or questions, Senator Barbara Boxer (D-CA) who was leading the hearing, informed Sen. Inofe that elections have consequences.

Seven months later, State Senator Andrew Rice is banking on that being the case as he ramps up his 2008 US Senate race against Inhofe.

Why should this matter to FM readers? Because Andrew is half Inhofe’s age, twice the stamina, twice the grassroots/netroots savvy, and most importantly, if elected Andrew Rice will become the youngest Senator in the country by nearly 10 years.